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Js1

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Everything posted by Js1

  1. Js1
    They're falling into the opposite trap of Dems in 2022 - the early vote was much more Republican friendly, but Election Day was much more Dem friendly. Dems were freaking out headed into E-Day 2022.
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  3. Js1
    L. O. L. Internal memo leaking already. Baselining everything to 2020 early vote, which is a bad idea.
  4. Js1
    Ralston is being a fucking drama queen right now. Just post it and be done with it. He's worse than a $9.95er
  5. Js1
    I'll tag you, if you're not paying attention, when Dixville Notch happens, if you want to drop a post in there late tonight.
  6. Js1
    12-7 will be BUSY. As long as you're in line, you get to vote. If you aren't a massive puss, 7-12 will probably be pretty dead.
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  8. Js1
    Hey @Pancho, your Election Day thread unlocking for Dixville Notch at midnight/11pm?
  9. Js1
    Marist: Harris +4 nationally
  10. Js1
    He looks and sounds like shit this morning Bret Stephens says Trump will win. So congrats Kamala!
  11. Js1
    This is why you don’t outsource your ground game to Elon
  12. Js1
    Yep. DC is already prepping. They fortified the WH/VP’s residence basically over the weekend.
  13. Js1
    Also the conversation if her poll was Trump +7 or better would be totally different, because it is more “in line” with that pollsters think the election will go No, we do this in solidarity.
  14. Js1
    Things said in October 2020 when she released her poll that went fully against the polling CW that Iowa was in play for Biden. (I also said that, and I was 100% wrong)
  15. Js1
    Also yes, I am staying up for Dixville Notch's results tonight.
  16. Js1
    Yes, she has mentioned specifically she just asks "are you voting this year?" and doesn't really worry about if you voted in the last election, or last 2 elections, etc. That's basically how she got Trump 2016 and Obama 2008 caucus results. Edit: Even Silver has called out Emerson for being the biggest herders in the industry.
  17. Js1
    You're also looking at the full 2020 data and only partial 2024 data (just early, no E-Day voting) I beg so many of you, please worry about your post-mortems until late November. Can we finish up through tomorrow, first?
  18. Js1
    I enjoy Selzer trashing and throwing shade at Emerson this morning. Said they're manipulating the data with their own assumptions about the electorate makeup in a way that helps Trump, instead of just taking the data at face value. I think she knows that these pollsters are getting more favorable numbers for Harris until they start messing with the numbers.
  19. Js1
    She's closing in PA (Allentown, Pittsburgh, Philly) and Walz is closing in Wisconsin and Michigan (La Crosse, Stevens Point, Milwaukee, Detroit) Trump has the hectic schedule today: Raleigh, Reading, Pittsburgh, Grand Rapids Vance has La Crosse, Flint, Atlanta, Newtown The Harris campaign has the more focused schedule. Trump/Vance are trying to hit every Midwest/east coast swing state, since Trump spent so much other time this past weekend in Virginia and New Mexico
  20. Js1
    Ralston is posting his predictions later today. No Clark mail drop upgrade overnight - so incomplete from Saturday and no Sunday data yet.
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  22. Js1
    If/when Trump loses, there's going to be so many books and post-mortems written about how the Trump campaign/Republican Party: Completely alienated women of all ages into voting for the Democrats Pushed college educated voters into the arms of the Democrats Nuked their support in the suburbs on a daily basis May have actually pissed off seniors enough to vote Dem with their attempts to go after senior benefits Tried to rely on the lowest propensity/mostly unregistered demographic of Rogan Bros/redpilled young men who are lazy and uninvolved
  23. Js1
    Oh please, the youth will show up tomorrow. Because they're lazy and procrastinate until the end. We want young women to vote, but the high propensity young men who will vote are voting for Harris. The Rogan Bros will see long lines tomorrow and just go back to sleep. The young women will stand in line as long as it takes.
  24. Js1
    Pennsylvania weekend firewall: D-R: 409k D-R + 70-30 indie split: 492k One final drop tomorrow of the mail should get it to 500k? Not built to be, but I did see a poll over the weekend from UNH that had ME-02 48-44 Trump.
  25. Js1

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