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Js1

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Everything posted by Js1

  1. Js1
    I totally buy that map. Including the shading
  2. Js1
    Also not a surprise. The last week has been a push for the margins, bc they’ve turned out or contacted all of their base or groups favorable to them.
  3. Js1
    Congrats on this team now becoming an absolute chore to watch instead of a pleasure. I GUESS Elliot gets a mulligan after back to back titles but geez
  4. Js1
  5. Js1
    21-17 OU. This team has given up?
  6. Js1
    19-16 OU…
  7. Js1
    15-13 OU. Media TO
  8. Js1
    Big, if true
  9. Js1
    These are the same things people asked about and were skeptical of in 2020 because her poll showed a very comfortable a trump win compared to the other polls. She was right, again.
  10. Js1
  11. Js1

    Texas Women's Soccer

    Js1 replied to Js1's topic in UT Sports

    Villarreal is SEC freshman of the year, all freshman team and third team SEC Missimo first team SEC Justus third team SEC For the tournament, Texas plays the winner of Auburn/LSU at 2pm Tuesday on SECN
  12. Js1
  13. Js1
    Atlas Intel is dumping polls every day to skew the averages.
  14. Js1
    Because she’s not making assumptions about the electorate makeup or weighing the results. Collect, export, publish. Do I think pollsters are intentionally fudging numbers? No, but they’re massaging data to meet priors or assumptions. Also could be Iowa specific with their specific abortion ban. Also she’s not scared of being wrong, because she has a reputation. Her worst miss was 2008 (Obama +17 and he won +9.5)
  15. Js1
    We just need him to be a D vote for majority leader, but he would be a headache. But he can be placated with good union legislation, veterans support, legal weed, etc We are all skeptical of Harris up 3 in Iowa, but her track record speaks for itself. She knows her state.
  16. Js1
    From what I understand, she does random digit dialing, plugs in the data and outputs the numbers. Theres no massaging the data, there’s no weighing for priors or assuming X group will turn out at a higher rate than Y group, etc. She just straight up says “this was my data, these are my numbers” I also don’t believe she does recall vote, which has been overestimating Trump, according to Cohn
  17. Js1
    This is why you can’t assume all the new voters this cycle who were eligible to but didn’t vote in 2020 are Trump voters.
  18. Js1
    I’m certainly not going to go back to 2020 posts and find it, but I know for a fact I was a Selzer denialist. We all thought Biden was leading or close in Iowa and that poll dropped and I recall posting something to the effect of “outlier, whatever” and pretending it didn’t happen Not falling for that again. But will laugh at the GOP now picking apart a Selzer poll they loved in 2016 and 2020
  19. Js1
    I posted in the other thread that her down ballot races had Dems flipping IA01/03. IA-01 margin is skeptical (D+16) but the R is at 37% so there’s a lot of room for her to grow but the D was at 53%
  20. Js1
    Yep. She doesn’t make assumptions about the electorate. She gets the data, she publishes the data.
  21. Js1
    It’s like I’ve been transported back to Democrats saying that in 2020 about the final Selzer poll
  22. Js1
    She talked about it on MSNBC and mentioned the from the ground up enthusiasm for Harris, considering neither campaign has been in Iowa. She mentions that Harris’ entrance gained her new voters and expanded the voting base, mostly from senior and middle aged women
  23. Js1
    It was good enough in 16 and 20. Nobody in the polling and pundit world gave it this much scrutiny then.
  24. Js1
    Polling like the UK polls might be a good start. They clearly get it right pretty often. But there’s probably a lot less mistrust in their media than we have.
  25. Js1
    Oh yeah, they scared now

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