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Js1

Certifiably Surly - no CR
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Everything posted by Js1

  1. Js1
    Lol the CEO of Susquehanna polling just got into a Twitter spat with Adam Carlson because Susquehanna RT’d Kari Lake cheering on of their polls. Very professional and nonpartisan…. 🙄
  2. Js1
    MAGAs will be walking around San Fran, stabbing themselves with needles and having unprotected gay sex, to get it
  3. Js1
    Macomb was about Trump +8.
  4. Js1
    Aggy
  5. Js1
  6. Js1
    Even Nate Silver’s new article is how he doesn’t trust the polls. In his words, roughly half of polls should show a result within 2.5 points of a tied race. It’s 80% this year. So much herding 1 in 9.5 trillion odds of this happening 1 in 2.8 million odds on Wisconsin having 33/36 polls showing the race within 2.5 points 1 in 300,000 for PA for 42/47 polls
  7. Js1
    Late movement. The money is reading the tea leaves
  8. Js1
    He knew Trump would win in 2016. So yeah, she’s winning
  9. Js1
    You know what, I’ll allow it.
  10. Js1
    Top-40 player John Clark is a Longhorn!
  11. Js1
    We got him
  12. Js1
    Fuck that, I’ll be booking a summer vacay in PR and throw my money around like paper towels after a hurricane to thank them.
  13. Js1
    And this. Literally, just fucking elect her and then go back to picking Republicans in 2025/2026 and beyond. For the love of God, you will get another chance in 2028 if she wins.
  14. Js1
    I'm already on your side, you don't have to call me names.
  15. Js1
    "Did we stress everyone out? Hell yes. Were we wrong? Extremely. Do we care? No way, you'll be back in 2025 to follow us around like lost puppies" Also got a guffaw out of me, Cohn saying he wouldn't believe his own poll saying Harris +7 in PA - but he had no issue publishing a Harris +3/4 in PA in August and September and October.
  16. Js1
    Cohn basically saying “I wouldn’t trust my own results bc they don’t match my vibes” is pure CYA. And pretty much why, unless polls are 150% correct this year, going to lead to them being ignored forever
  17. Js1
    Yep. That’s how I read it. Also it’s a “this is my vibe and it’s not matching”
  18. Js1
    Even I don’t know
  19. Js1
    I have been on the record that everything is going to go one way, for the most part. There will be some ticket splitting for incumbents like Tester/Brown and some challengers, like Allred and DMP, because Cruz and Scott are not well liked. What it feels like, to me, is they're polling, finding House Dems/Senate Dems up, but then adjusting topline numbers only for the presidential race. Like if you poll Arizona, and find Gallego up 8, and Harris up 3-4, it feels like they're fudging the top line to get the presidential result they want. Ticket splitting isn't rare, but it's not going to be this massive thing where Gallego, Rosen, Casey, Slotkin and Baldwin all win and Trump wins those states. The only possible state that should see legit ticket splits are Montana, Ohio and NC GOV.
  20. Js1
    Redfield & Wilton - the Tory polilng company.
  21. Js1
    Yep! His big selling point is he is a team player because he has no ambition to be president. Shapiro would have been an absolute headache. Also the idea that he pitched that to Harris' team is so insulting. Like the first female president can't do the job without a man next to her, holding her hand.
  22. Js1
    Grifters.
  23. Js1
  24. Js1
    That is just a huge range. But way higher range for Dems
  25. Js1
    Because: Trump is going to win: Dems panic, read every article, watch every cable segment, etc. Harris is going to win: Republicans bury their heads and stick to Fox News

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