Jump to content

Js1

Certifiably Surly - no CR
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    62830

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    111

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Js1

  1. Js1
    Nope, but "in person" early voting in PA ended on Wednesday Thursday - 1,625,706 Friday - 1,688,551 So looks like ~53k ballots got processed overnight. Maybe 150-200k ballots to report Monday? Smithley expects both Dems and GOP to get into the low-80s in return % (Dems 79%, GOP 77.5% right now)
  2. Js1
    Last day of EV, also known as the "oh shit, I gotta vote" - let's go, young people! Don't wait until Tuesday.
  3. Js1
    PA Firewall update: 394k (D-R) - Dems have surpassed this portion of the firewall 441k (D-R and winning indies 70-30) Should grow some more after the Monday update that covers Fri-Sat-Sun
  4. Js1
    Never forget, McLaughlin was the pollster who told Eric Cantor he would win his primary by 34 points. He lost by 11 The RNC told campaigns not to use or trust McLaughlin's data.
  5. Js1
    Him cancelling his appearance at the Ohio State-Penn St game, in State College, read like "bailing," while his campaign is terrified of losing North Carolina, so he's finishing up there. 1 appearance in Michigan - probably conceding it 0 in Wisconsin 0 in Arizona 0 in Nevada 3 in PA 4 in NC Either they are absolutely delusional about where they stand in the blue wall or he's flailing. And based on his Truth Social rants and Kirk, et al., flipping out about the senior + female vote in PA, they aren't confident. They're playing defense.
  6. Js1
    Well no, in-person early voting in PA is basically being handed a mail-in ballot, filling it out and handing it back. It's kind of dumb, but it is essentially "in-person early mail voting." These in-person requests categorize as a requested mail ballot, which is why the GOP's request and return rates increased last week. The only true "in person voting" by machine is Tuesday.
  7. Js1
    Yep. Pick her up, drop her off, go to a coffee shop and tell her to text you when she's done to go get her. Don't let them use laziness as an excuse.
  8. Js1
    Finally back in action tonight at 8pm on SEC Network versus Mizzou, who comes in on a 6 match winning streak. Marina Crownover returns to Austin. Texas still has outright first place of the SEC at 7-1, but Mizzou is hot on our trail at 6-2, along with Kentucky.
  9. Js1
    But you'll miss the fun of waiting 5-6 hours for Harris County to send the day-of voting results to the centralized reporting location by carrier pigeon. Just imagine, Cruz leads Allred by 30,000 votes and we are just waiting on day-of Harris County votes.....
  10. Js1
    I know @BamaATL mentioned it, but in case it got lost, Georgia is confirming fast results on Tuesday. All early voting will release about an hour after polls close and Georgia officials anticipate being done counting by midnight. Hard for me to see this drag through the week - GA says they will finish Tuesday night, FL is fast, NC is pretty quick, Michigan/Wisconsin are quicker than 2020 and PA had a Senate call just after 1am eastern time, so there's 5 of your 7 swing states who could finish or be close to finished Tuesday night. We will, of course, wait all week for NV/AZ due to how slowly they count the mail and how long it can be received for.
  11. Js1
    OH NO, someone took a quote out of context and ran with it? That didn't literally happen like 2 days ago.
  12. Js1
    That wasn't even all he said! He called Biden a stupid bastard and called Harris a sleaze bag. But Biden says a comedian is garbage and the media ran wild.
  13. Js1
    Nope, you also have to hope they turn out. Also speaking of "nailed it" - EPIC/MRA wo did the Harris +3 poll for Detroit Free Press also was bascially the only pollster who called the 2022 blowout for Whitmer - the final few polls were Whitmer +6, 5, 11, 2, 4. The +11 poll was EPIC/MRA and Whitmer won 54-44 So the Friday before E-Day, 2 of the pollsters that nailed PA-SEN and MI-GOV put out good polls for Harris. I will take it. But the true test is Sunday - Queen Selzer will speak.
  14. Js1
    So breaking that Marist poll for PA: The early vote/already voted from that poll is 63-35 Harris. The "yet to vote" is 54-44 Trump. You can tell the GOP has cannibalized some of their E-Day voters, while a significant number of Dems have shifted to E-Day voting, since 2020 E-Day was 65-35 Trump and the EV was 76-28 Biden. Democrats also have a few more days to push their EV margins up, since Thursday-Monday are all mail ballot returns, no "in-person voting" until Tuesday. GOP encouraged their voters to show up early, request a mail ballot and then immediately cast it, which is effectively what PA's early in-person voting is. Also Smithley points out Marist nailed the 2022 Senate topline in their final poll, when others were trying to push it to a tie/Oz lead.
  15. Js1
    Plus Allred. That’s what matters
  16. Js1
    Esp in NC and GA. Do I believe it? Ehh. Let's see.
  17. Js1
    11-18 is not great, but not bad. Jones is not a strong FT shooter. Booker should be better with the way she shoots. But game 0, not worried yet. Jones + Oldacre may end up being better than we all thought. Still not a great 3P% team, probably, but also I'm sure they were having some fun shooting 5 in the fourth Q. Jak, Carlton, Graves, Moore each taking 1 - guessing those were not what Vic drew up or called lol. Phelia didn't even take one and she shoots ~35% for her career. Only 6 turnovers and the expanded box score said UTT had 0 points off those 6 turnovers. Good. Texas scored 47 points off 36 forced turnovers
  18. Js1
    Survey USA has Jared Golden up 12, 53-41. Very good news that he is going to out-run Harris in this district (Trump +6) by a lot and doesn't even need RCV to win outright, if true. Maine ticket splitting - gotta love it. The poll also has Trump only up 5 here (49-44), which is a 1 point underperformance for what it is drawn (51.6-45.5)
  19. Js1
    Detroit Free Press is also Harris +3
  20. Js1
  21. Js1
    Cow bullshit?
  22. Js1
    Pffth
  23. Js1
    Also fucking LOL if he’s relying on McLaughlin for his polling. Eric Cantor says hi
  24. Js1
  25. Js1

Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...