Jump to content

Js1

Certifiably Surly - no CR
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    62823

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    111

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Js1

  1. Js1
    That shit was WILD on election night/week 2020 lol. And the overreactions were awesome
  2. Js1
    Kornaki + Reddit
  3. Js1
    Also our first official game is a week later than most teams. Several games every night next week for other teams, but Texas' first game is not until November 10. Because of that, we started practice a week later than everyone, including USC, who we scrimmaged. First date of practice is based on your first game date, so yeah, we got a delayed start.
  4. Js1
    NO ONE GET HURT
  5. Js1
    The gap between just D/R returns is 387,000. The goal is 390,000 to feel comfortable. If you allocate the EARLY VOTE indies at 70-30 Dem (which is the normal partisan return on VBMs from that group in PA, per Smithley, who knows his state), it's 458k. The goal is 500,000 to feel comfortable.
  6. Js1
  7. Js1
    It had her up in early voting, 57-41. Which is absurd, because the current D/R gap is 23.9 points (56.5D, 32.6R, 10.9 indie). It's basically giving him indies at a 95-5 split lol
  8. Js1
    Come on, stick to the theme
  9. Js1
    So in the "no one knows shit about fuck" CNN's PA poll shows early voting breaking down 57-41, despite the current D/R/I splits The new SP&R poll (Harris 48-47) shows EV breaking down 62-31 Those are huge differences. PA Firewall update: 387k/390k (D/R) 458k/500k (D/R/I)
  10. Js1
    She ain't gonna Hillary this one. Play through the whistle, hit the stops.
  11. Js1
    I don't remember what his exact words were on PSA, but he had a little smirk talking about what they are seeing and that their internal polling intentionally overestimates Trump and they still like and are confident in what they are seeing in the battlegrounds. O'Malley-Dillon was the one who went up after Election Day 2020 and pretty much said Biden was winning MI/PA/WI, they had already deduced he was barely going to win GA and she was the one who was right about Arizona all along. She implied NC is this year's GA. Those two running this campaign give me supreme confidence.
  12. Js1
    I mean, this is no different than what both Jen O'Malley-Dillon and David Plouffe have said this week. Both of them are projected extreme confidence as well for the Harris side.
  13. Js1
    Also that 2020 EV was 3 weeks long. Texas is doing quite well, considering one less week of early voting.
  14. Js1
    Donald Trump called your country a garbage can.
  15. Js1
    Far too much baselining to 2020. STOP DOING THAT
  16. Js1
    I'd think CA republicans are moving to AZ, NV, TX, FL, MT and ID You have upper midwest Republicans moving to (retiring to) FL You have Texas Dems moving out to CO, NC, VA, MN Wild we may have another alignment, but one borne out of pandemic/post-pandemic migration and not political realignment. Considering we just had two in the last 15 years (WWC flip to Republicans in 2010-2016 and the suburban/college educated shift to Democrats 2018-present)
  17. Js1
    It is hard for me to look at Florida and see a lot of good things, but a lot of that is clouded by 2022. Democratic turnout and enthusiasm just fucked cratered down there in 2022. If Trump somehow only wins FL by 1-1.5%, he's lost GA and NC and the entire Blue Wall. I won't believe that until I see it. Also, not gonna lie, and neg away, if FL wants to do the funniest shit next week and vote for Harris and beat Texas, I'll take that trade-off.
  18. Js1
  19. Js1
    Yes, there does exist a world (a likely one) where Trump wins TX and FL by bigger margins, but still loses PA, MI, WI, based on COVID migration. California is be bluer, AZ/NV gets a little bit redder, but the upper midwest, GA, NC and CO get bluer.
  20. Js1
    It's so stupid that these frat boys don't want to get laid.
  21. Js1
    It felt closer than it was because the polling average nationally was Obama +0.7. The final 9 polls were 3 ties, 2 Romney leads (+1), 4 Obama leads (+3, +1, +1, +3)
  22. Js1
    I don't remember where I saw it, but actual Palestinians living in Gaza prefer Harris. So maybe those tantum-throwing fools should consider what their people actually going through atrocities want instead.
  23. Js1
    Screaming about PA being rigged on Truth Social and a bunch of people on the right like Charlie Kirk screaming about women bigly outvoting men in the rust belt does not scream "wrapped up" to me Trump wants big crowds, he wants to project strength, he wants to act like he's winning so when he doesn't, he can raise $500 million for lawsuits and pocket 85% of it. He will transfer all the leftover money + whatever he raises for lawsuits into his bank account, the FEC will open an inquiry about it and wrap it up in 2032. He'll be dead by then.
  24. Js1
    And Bozo mentioned it before, and I agree, that 2012 was just as bad a polling error as 2016/2020, but it was in Romney's favor, and Obama won easily. 2012 was legit a tossup by the pollsters/pundits heading into Election Day (except Silver, which of course, made him famous). And I think that's exactly what happens this year.
  25. Js1
    Yep. All these things that took down Hillary in 2016 aren't there for Harris

Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...