Js1

NO ONE GET HURT

The gap between just D/R returns is 387,000. The goal is 390,000 to feel comfortable. If you allocate the EARLY VOTE indies at 70-30 Dem (which is the normal partisan return on VBMs from that group in PA, per Smithley, who knows his state), it's 458k. The goal is 500,000 to feel comfortable.

It had her up in early voting, 57-41. Which is absurd, because the current D/R gap is 23.9 points (56.5D, 32.6R, 10.9 indie). It's basically giving him indies at a 95-5 split lol

Come on, stick to the theme

So in the "no one knows shit about fuck" CNN's PA poll shows early voting breaking down 57-41, despite the current D/R/I splits The new SP&R poll (Harris 48-47) shows EV breaking down 62-31 Those are huge differences. PA Firewall update: 387k/390k (D/R) 458k/500k (D/R/I)

She ain't gonna Hillary this one. Play through the whistle, hit the stops.

I don't remember what his exact words were on PSA, but he had a little smirk talking about what they are seeing and that their internal polling intentionally overestimates Trump and they still like and are confident in what they are seeing in the battlegrounds. O'Malley-Dillon was the one who went up after Election Day 2020 and pretty much said Biden was winning MI/PA/WI, they had already deduced he was barely going to win GA and she was the one who was right about Arizona all along. She implied NC is this year's GA. Those two running this campaign give me supreme confidence.

I mean, this is no different than what both Jen O'Malley-Dillon and David Plouffe have said this week. Both of them are projected extreme confidence as well for the Harris side.

Also that 2020 EV was 3 weeks long. Texas is doing quite well, considering one less week of early voting.

Donald Trump called your country a garbage can.

Far too much baselining to 2020. STOP DOING THAT

I'd think CA republicans are moving to AZ, NV, TX, FL, MT and ID You have upper midwest Republicans moving to (retiring to) FL You have Texas Dems moving out to CO, NC, VA, MN Wild we may have another alignment, but one borne out of pandemic/post-pandemic migration and not political realignment. Considering we just had two in the last 15 years (WWC flip to Republicans in 2010-2016 and the suburban/college educated shift to Democrats 2018-present)

It is hard for me to look at Florida and see a lot of good things, but a lot of that is clouded by 2022. Democratic turnout and enthusiasm just fucked cratered down there in 2022. If Trump somehow only wins FL by 1-1.5%, he's lost GA and NC and the entire Blue Wall. I won't believe that until I see it. Also, not gonna lie, and neg away, if FL wants to do the funniest shit next week and vote for Harris and beat Texas, I'll take that trade-off.

Yes, there does exist a world (a likely one) where Trump wins TX and FL by bigger margins, but still loses PA, MI, WI, based on COVID migration. California is be bluer, AZ/NV gets a little bit redder, but the upper midwest, GA, NC and CO get bluer.

It's so stupid that these frat boys don't want to get laid.

It felt closer than it was because the polling average nationally was Obama +0.7. The final 9 polls were 3 ties, 2 Romney leads (+1), 4 Obama leads (+3, +1, +1, +3)

I don't remember where I saw it, but actual Palestinians living in Gaza prefer Harris. So maybe those tantum-throwing fools should consider what their people actually going through atrocities want instead.

Screaming about PA being rigged on Truth Social and a bunch of people on the right like Charlie Kirk screaming about women bigly outvoting men in the rust belt does not scream "wrapped up" to me Trump wants big crowds, he wants to project strength, he wants to act like he's winning so when he doesn't, he can raise $500 million for lawsuits and pocket 85% of it. He will transfer all the leftover money + whatever he raises for lawsuits into his bank account, the FEC will open an inquiry about it and wrap it up in 2032. He'll be dead by then.

And Bozo mentioned it before, and I agree, that 2012 was just as bad a polling error as 2016/2020, but it was in Romney's favor, and Obama won easily. 2012 was legit a tossup by the pollsters/pundits heading into Election Day (except Silver, which of course, made him famous). And I think that's exactly what happens this year.

Yep. All these things that took down Hillary in 2016 aren't there for Harris

Oh come on - He was the fresh face and people were naive enough to think he'd be constrained by the gravity of the office and the establishment Hillary was *reviled,* not just by the right and a big chunk of independents, but by a big chunk of her own party She fucked up left and right, whether it was real, like her emails, hiding her pneumonia issue, ignoring the blue wall, or imagined, like Benghazi 20 year smear campaign - she was still dealing with shit from the 90s being brought up the right wing hate machine every day She cratered with WWC voters and the suburban/college educated shift had not yet happened

I mean, we have talked at length about where he finds new voters - newly registered young women? not a chance newly registered young men? maybe, but there was a poll showing Gen Z men are supporting Harris almost at the same levels of Gen Z women, so unless he's tapped into a pool of Tate-pilled alpha bros.... newly registered black women? LOL I said it yesterday - unless he has absolutely found this giant source of untapped voters who barely ever or have never shown up to vote, *and turns them out,* he's going to have to win a lot more Dems than she is winning Republicans (unlikely), stem the bleeding of suburban college educated whites (not a chance), pick off minority voters at a substantial rate (not based on polling, he's not) and win independents. But the vast majority of newly registered independents are young voters and voters of color and the swingier, established indies are suburban women. He also cannot bleed any support in WWC men/women. I mean, he won them 67-32. If he only wins them 65-34, he's in trouble in the blue wall. Or hope that turnout craters, but we are likely on pace for 2008/2020 turnout and not 2016 turnout.

Plus he just wants a big crowd somewhere that Harris is not going to also appear the same or next day with a bigger crowd. It's all ego He has his big rally in Salem, VA on Saturday - not a battleground part of VA, but he is going to draw all the yokels from rural VA, WV and eastern Kentucky to the Klan Rally.