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Js1

Certifiably Surly - no CR
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Everything posted by Js1

  1. Js1
    I know it is. But it is not immune from herding because they have a reputation and don't want to be wildly wrong. Calling this a tossup and every state is Harris +1 to Trump +1 just means you can say "it could have gone either way!!!!!!" The 7 swing states are not going to be 0-1 point races when all is said and done.
  2. Js1
    Nobody knows shit about fuck It's all herding. When even Nate Silver says there's 100% herding going on, you know that's what it is.
  3. Js1
    what did i miss?
  4. Js1
    I read this could also happen in the SEC - a four way tie, I think?. And aggy has the highest opponent winning %
  5. Js1
    That's so sad. And so MAGA
  6. Js1
    Huh, almost like they are manipulating the data. Party ID doesn't flip 5 points in 6 weeks.
  7. Js1
  8. Js1
    They do. But they rarely, if ever, show up to vote in federal elections.
  9. Js1
    Trump's entire campaign is trying to turn out demographics that don't vote. But they seem to keep getting through these polling likely voter screens.... It will either be the greatest strategy or will absolutely bomb when they still don't show up. Especially when his opponent is gobbling up college educated voters (who always vote), black women (who ALWAYS vote) and suburban women (who always vote).
  10. Js1
    Yep. We are moving to a totally different model than 2020, so really hard to just compare things to 2020.
  11. Js1
    Is this how nerds sext?
  12. Js1
    One poll comes out and everyone immediately wets themselves. I don't know how any of you watch sports. Oh wait, I do - I've been in a game thread.
  13. Js1
    I’ve been telling y’all, people/Dems are gonna vote on Election Day. Like in 2022
  14. Js1
    And in 2020 too.
  15. Js1
    2020 was R+5 (37-32-31) and Biden won Though 2022 was R+3 (36-33-31) and Ron Johnson won What I'm saying when it comes to Wisconsin.... If Dane and Milwaukee turn out, the Dems will win.
  16. Js1
  17. Js1
    We all voted for her out of necessity. She was fucking awful. I literally don't recall her even running a campaign Andrew White would have at least tried.
  18. Js1
    I really encourage many people to just read or become familiar with the ECRA before just spouting off conspiracy. BlueAnon bullshit is getting on my nerves right now.
  19. Js1
    There's a disconnect whether fewer certified states = lower threshold to win or if it is 270 regardless. From the Electoral Count Reform Act: Under the Electoral Count Reform Act, if the number of electoral votes cast decreases (e.g., because Congress votes to sustain an objection and not count a slate of electors, as described below), the number of votes needed to win also decreases. For example, if Congress discards 10 electoral votes, the total number of votes cast drops to 528, and the number of votes needed to win drops to 265. This reduces the incentive for supporters of a losing candidate to try to throw out electoral votes so that Congress can select the president.
  20. Js1
    It felt like Perry Ellis was in college for 10 years.
  21. Js1
    Also any post-election lawsuits have to be quickly ruled on - that is also spelled out in the Electoral Count Reform Act. It's not going to be 2 months of lawsuits (or 2 years, if you're Kari Lake).
  22. Js1
    I don't think he has the power to do that. Also as a reminder - the electors can only be submitted to Congress by the certifying authority in the state (Gov or SOS). Dems have control of those offices in AZ, NV (SOS), WI (Gov), MI, NC (Gov), PA and GA Gov/SOS have defied Trump many times over election results. Congress cannot accept any alternate slate of electors. Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022.
  23. Js1
    Final Marquette poll of WI 50-49 Harris (H2H) 46-44 Harris (full field) Final Susquehanna poll of PA (not a good pollster, were off by 6.5 points for Fetterman's race lol) 46-46 (technically she is up by 0.2) Casey 49-46 CMC-Rose Institute/YouGov of PA 50-48 Harris
  24. Js1
    Mike Johnson is not going to be speaker on January 3. He can't do jack and shit. It does not matter.
  25. Js1
    CNN just dropped a Harris +6 in WI (51-45) and +5 in Michigan (48-43) and a tie in PA (Harris 50-47 among "extremely likely to vote")

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