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Js1

Certifiably Surly - no CR
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Everything posted by Js1

  1. A no-college educated white people problem. Because Harris is going to win college educated whites
  2. Too late something Biden said to change anyone’s mind. This is not basket of deplorables that was 2 months before Election Day. 75m people have voted
  3. I am not infallible but I also am not gonna live my life like a big defeatist baby. We need less Briskets in the world
  4. Beats the panic about every poll that comes out
  5. I know it is. But it is not immune from herding because they have a reputation and don't want to be wildly wrong. Calling this a tossup and every state is Harris +1 to Trump +1 just means you can say "it could have gone either way!!!!!!" The 7 swing states are not going to be 0-1 point races when all is said and done.
  6. Nobody knows shit about fuck It's all herding. When even Nate Silver says there's 100% herding going on, you know that's what it is.
  7. I read this could also happen in the SEC - a four way tie, I think?. And aggy has the highest opponent winning %
  8. Huh, almost like they are manipulating the data. Party ID doesn't flip 5 points in 6 weeks.
  9. They do. But they rarely, if ever, show up to vote in federal elections.
  10. Trump's entire campaign is trying to turn out demographics that don't vote. But they seem to keep getting through these polling likely voter screens.... It will either be the greatest strategy or will absolutely bomb when they still don't show up. Especially when his opponent is gobbling up college educated voters (who always vote), black women (who ALWAYS vote) and suburban women (who always vote).
  11. Yep. We are moving to a totally different model than 2020, so really hard to just compare things to 2020.
  12. One poll comes out and everyone immediately wets themselves. I don't know how any of you watch sports. Oh wait, I do - I've been in a game thread.
  13. I’ve been telling y’all, people/Dems are gonna vote on Election Day. Like in 2022
  14. 2020 was R+5 (37-32-31) and Biden won Though 2022 was R+3 (36-33-31) and Ron Johnson won What I'm saying when it comes to Wisconsin.... If Dane and Milwaukee turn out, the Dems will win.
  15. We all voted for her out of necessity. She was fucking awful. I literally don't recall her even running a campaign Andrew White would have at least tried.
  16. I really encourage many people to just read or become familiar with the ECRA before just spouting off conspiracy. BlueAnon bullshit is getting on my nerves right now.
  17. There's a disconnect whether fewer certified states = lower threshold to win or if it is 270 regardless. From the Electoral Count Reform Act: Under the Electoral Count Reform Act, if the number of electoral votes cast decreases (e.g., because Congress votes to sustain an objection and not count a slate of electors, as described below), the number of votes needed to win also decreases. For example, if Congress discards 10 electoral votes, the total number of votes cast drops to 528, and the number of votes needed to win drops to 265. This reduces the incentive for supporters of a losing candidate to try to throw out electoral votes so that Congress can select the president.
  18. It felt like Perry Ellis was in college for 10 years.
  19. Also any post-election lawsuits have to be quickly ruled on - that is also spelled out in the Electoral Count Reform Act. It's not going to be 2 months of lawsuits (or 2 years, if you're Kari Lake).
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