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Js1

Certifiably Surly - no CR
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Everything posted by Js1

  1. ALSOOOOOOOOOOOO https://onwardstate.com/2024/10/30/donald-trump-no-longer-attending-penn-state-ohio-state/ Donald Trump is no longer set to attend Penn State football’s Saturday matchup against Ohio State, a university spokesperson told Onward State.
  2. Yeah, Michigan is the bluest of the blue wall states. If Detroit does its thing (and it has been), it will offset any Dearborn fuckery.
  3. Mark Kelly says Kamala is winning AZ Nancy Pelosi is also very confident and you know she’s plugged in to data in just about CD in the country
  4. That’s because Lupe was bad. Awful. Dreadful. She didn’t even try
  5. I’d be ecstatic if she hit 47.5% statewide. Like god damn
  6. Some of yall have got to stop scaring people with this bullshit. Good fucking lord. This is turning into “the refs will not let us win the Big 12 CCG” from last year
  7. Oh yeah this one is totally opt-in via social media and doesn’t vet the information you input for your location and demographics, as I recall
  8. Fascist playbook is to project power when you don’t even it.
  9. I’ve never felt better about PA than Trump flipping out about it on Truth Social.
  10. PA firewall: 380k/390k (D/R) 446.5/500k (D/R/indie) Yesterday was the end of early in-person voting in PA, so all that is left is traditional collection of mail-ballots until Tuesday, so that firewall will have a chance to grow without any in-person voting. And yes, Smithley does think the GOP cannibalized a good chunk of their E-Day vote.
  11. I totally get it though. They're almost 600 miles from Austin and the Legislature votes more in line with their rural neighbors in West Texas, so they don't feel the states gives a flying fuck about them. Because they don't, except for the revenue their cross-border economic activity brings in. Shit, they aren't even in the same timezone as the rest of the state. You may as well just cede El Paso to New Mexico at this point. They're closer to Santa Fe than Austin.
  12. Smithley posted a poll yesterday of PA-08, where Trump leads by 3. It was redrawn to be a ... Trump +3 district (would have beaten Biden in the redrawn 8th, 50.9-48). Suggests that Harris is not slipping much (at all?) in NEPA. It is an R+4 district and the incumbent, Cartwright (D), leads by 7. He only won in 2022 by 2.5. Again, the district level polls of PA look really good for Harris - she's either matching Biden or exceeding him in the suburban districts.
  13. Harris had almost 97k on Monday and 92k yesterday. Really looking for them to hit a million early votes by Friday.
  14. Tribune had a good article about this back during the primaries (https://www.texastribune.org/2024/03/29/texas-voting-el-paso-low-turnout/) Tldr: Lack of knowledge on how to register to vote (thanks TDP! And Beto - you should have been doing this instead of your vanity run for President and governor) Lack of excitement about local candidates and general apathy about federal politics On the local candidates, they don't seem to connect with voters about the issues they care about Don't feel connected to the rest of the state, so they don't give a shit For being a border town, don't care about immigration, in the way it is used as an issue, because the debate never talks about how ELP is a commerce hub and contributes much to the state's economy through trade and migration of workers
  15. Stop comparing this to basket of deplorables! That was uttered by Hillary on September 9, 2016 - which means she had 2 months of that being thrown back at her and having to walk it back. No one is changing their vote 6 days before the election, with 55 million votes already cast, based on what Biden said. Not enough time to stick and not really that many undecided voters left. No one is really changing their minds at all at this point. Everything is baked in, barring a Trump stroke/heart attack, basically.
  16. Yep. If we can get El Paso County to 50% voter turnout, that's a good year for them. Since 1996, their presidential turnout voter turnout % has been: 45.36, 41.16, 45.6, 47.68, 44.58, 49.15, 52.01 Their best ever midterm turnout was, unsurprisingly, 2018, with Beto on the ballot - 46%. Did not translate in 2022 with Beto running for governor - 32.66%
  17. Harris has extended voting hours tomorrow for Halloween. 9pm
  18. Why on earth are we still talking about the garbage thing? It’s not gonna move the needle. Donald Trump will call Harris a mulatto or something today and knock it off the headlines
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