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Js1

Certifiably Surly - no CR
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Everything posted by Js1

  1. Js1
    it's counted a vote for Trump, but not as a vote for downballot. There will be ticket splitting, but unlikely at a level where Trump wins NV by a point or two and Rosen wins by 5-8 points. Same with Gallego being up 10+ and Trump up 1 or 2 in AZ.
  2. Js1
    He's also not vocally MAGA, but there's a lot of undercurrent - the rank and file MPs are being much more extreme
  3. Js1
    I am so glad I was clued into how wrong you often are, because L-O-FUCKING-L, NV is not going to be R+8-10 - 2022 was R+3 (36-33-31) The hot takes a week out are pretty bad right now - everyone is operating with totally incomplete data and comparing it to a 2020 election that was wildly different from any other election ever held.
  4. Js1
    Nate Cohn touched on this - it is people picking up the phone for a survey, saying "I am voting for Trump!" and hanging up the phone and not completing the survey.
  5. Js1
    That both sucks for Harris and sucks for that lady. You better be 100% certain when you cast a vote early.
  6. Js1
    Also when I talk about the right wing spam, this is going to go into the averages and then get immediately offset by some American Greatness, Fabrizio, Rasmussen or TIPP poll that nukes Detroit and shows Trump +1
  7. Js1
    Also like someone said, Canada is a year behind us. Poilievre is poised to win next year's Canadian election. America - exporting MAGA to the rest of the world.
  8. Js1
    Arizona too, based on polling.
  9. Js1
    One thing we are going to find out - ridiculous and unprecedent ticket splitting or GOP non-response bias down the ballot in polling?
  10. Js1
    Texas will lose 1 game in the regular season in 2023, win the Big 12 and make the CFP and a lot of people's blood pressure and dooming will go down *Checks Surly in the month of October 2024*
  11. Js1
    I don't think that is ever going to go away for Democrats. Ever.
  12. Js1
    100% this. Whether NV goes red or blue, we have to stop anchoring everything to 2020. And Clark is lagging by a lot - whether that is enthusiasm or mail processing or Dems just waiting until this week and Election Day, we don't know. Ralston doesn't know. Ralston is posting the data as it comes in at the end of the day, but the big picture will be next week, not today.
  13. Js1
    I wondered why my score fell a bit, but losing 1.6 explains it.
  14. Js1
    Uh yeah, I paid like $2.50 yesterday for a dozen
  15. Js1
    Def not quoting your whole post but go look at who is pumping out those polls. It’s 2022 all over again. I keep telling you, the Republican polling machine is skewing the averages to set a narrative.
  16. Js1
    Biden won them 50-46
  17. Js1
    Trump’s new closing message: “I am not a Nazi”
  18. Js1
    21,000 at Kamala’s rally in Michigan
  19. Js1
    His colleagues don’t even like him. They aren’t sending him money
  20. Js1
    K Thats not gonna happen
  21. Js1
    Yeah, the youth always show up early and never wait until the last minute 🙄
  22. Js1
    They'll never waver.
  23. Js1
    Yeah, probably an outlier. If Kansas shifted 10 points left, you're getting into 400+ electoral vote territory - Florida, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Iowa, ME-02 are all flipping. But hey, the first rule of good polling - publish, don't hide, outliers. It increases your credibility that you stand by your methods enough to publish Trump +5 in Kansas.
  24. Js1
    American Greatness (oh these fuckers are back) still can only find PA a 47-47 tie. Partisan R pollsters can't even buy Trump a lead Insider Advantage, another partisan R pollster, can only cook up a 1 point lead for Trump in Michigan. More flooding the zone! Now, for real polls: University of Arizona for AZ: Harris 46, Trump 45
  25. Js1
    Well if you put out too many polls, you can't tell everyone you're batting 1.000

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