Js1

I wish we had flair like reddit because "Miscreant Harris Supporter" would be mine.

She took a hard fall and a hit to the jaw. Came out with an ice pack and played a little bit more before the end of the 1st "half" Doesn't sound serious.

That was dead and buried before the aggy loss. We were going to have to go undefeated or with 1-loss to even have a prayer of being top 4 seed with our schedule. Texas had 1 Top 10 win on the resume - Wisconsin to open the season. We lost to Stanford and Minnesota, the only other teams in the committee's top 16 that we played, so 3 total matches against the committee's top 16. Nebraska, in addition to playing other highly ranked B1G teams, also played Kentucky, TCU, SMU, Creighton, Stanford and Louisville. 5 of those were in the committees top 16. Pitt, in addition to playing other highly ranked ACC teams, also played Oregon, USC and Penn State. All 3 of those are in the committee's top 16 Stanford, in addition to playing other highly ranked ACC teams, also played Minnesota, Wisconsin, Texas, Nebraska and Kentucky. 4 of those in the committee's top 16 Louisville, in addition to playing other highly ranked ACC teams, also played Wisconsin, Tennessee, Penn State, Missouri, Creighton, Kentucky, Nebraska. 4 of those in the committee's top 16. Ignoring the loss to Miami, and aggy after the committee reveal, the SEC teams did us no favors - Kentucky and Florida both are big let downs and we didn't schedule tough enough in non-conf play. The ACC has 4 teams in the top 16, the B1G has 7, fuck, even the Big 12 has 2. The SEC has 1 - us.

@Bateshorn has mentioned it, but Ann Selzer is dropping her final poll on Sunday. This might be the most definitive "this is how the election is going to go" based on her track record. If she shows Iowa has a 5 point or less race, Harris is going to win easily. Her September poll was Trump +4 (47-43) She was the first to show Obama winning the Iowa caucus using her method of "poll forward" - Rather than drawing from a panel of registered, likely voters, Selzer & Co. doesn’t discriminate in their voter pool. Whether you’re a Democrat, Republican, or an Independent, whether it’s your first caucus or your fifth, Selzer & Co. will take your political intent into mind That is how she found all those first time voters that Obama inspired.

I mean, I didn't see jack shit from Amarillo to Denver, and I drove up 287 through nothing but deep red counties the whole way. Saw less than 5 signs. Trump got 83% of the vote in Baca County. I saw one sign.

fify, because it was her bill with Manchin

They’re required by law to perform the duties and the House doesn’t control it. They can all vote against it but Mike Johnson has no control over his caucus.

Texas fell to 9th

Jen O'Malley Dillon said today (or maybe yesteday) that it is going to be close, but they are seeing what they want to see in the data/numbers/early vote and Harris is going to win.

Hence why it is not the strongest play electorally to rely on the worst voting demographic. There has not been a ground game to get them registered in time in a lot of states. They can't just show up and vote for Trump if they didn't do the work first.

The problem is we don't have a lot of House polling, but we have a lot of insider-y info that the GOP is starting to triage races to save others. Which means things aren't going well. And Dems are dropping money into races that were borderline tossup territory because the internal polling shows them competitive. Off the top of my head, there's something like 3 or 4 flips in CA, 1 or 2 in AZ, 2 auto pickups in LA/AL, 1 in PA, 2 or 3 in NY, 1 or 2 in Iowa. Enough to offset the automatic 3 pickups in NC for the GOP off the new maps. The GOP only has a 4 seat lead to work with. Add in the NC flips, it is 7. And there are always surprises on Election Night in House races. Because they don't get polled a lot. But we have seen really good leads for House candidates in fringy districts like NM-02, both NH races, CO-08, etc. Places you would expect to be tossup-y if the GOP was going to keep the House.

Well the NYT found Trump's lead in NE-01 to be 4 points. It was drawn to be a Trump 54-43 district.

First off, any legislation has to also pass the Senate and be signed by Biden - ain't gonna happen. Secondly, new Congress is sworn in January 3 - and any lingering rules a GOP House passed would be quickly undone by Speaker Jeffries if the Dems win the House, prior to the certification on January 6. @Bateshorn can back me up - the biggest thing is that unless the GOP retains the House, ain't shit gonna happen. Though I am sure the requisite number of House members needed to challenge (87) a State's electoral votes, but you also need 20 Senators, and you can't just challenge because of vibes.

I'm curious how many are even registered. Gonna go well - not many. Unless they live in a state with AVR or can register up until E-Day, they have to get off their ass and register and likely missed it. And you have to get them to show up. With your lack of ground game.

Yes, the GOP is cannibalizing some of their E-Day vote. And overall requests were down from 2020, so more Dems will also vote on E-Day. He mentioned that was also the pattern in 2022 as well. I mean, shit fuck, Biden needed about 1.2 million vote firewall in 2020 to offset E-Day. Fetterman only needed about half that. It's why it is so hard to draw parallels to 2020 - it will likely never be recreated.

@BamaATL Clarke County - the real one The youths voting late / done celebrating the win over Texas? Showed up on the bye weekend? Were averaging 1500/day, then 4k on Sat and now 2k already today.

381/390 (D/R) 447/500 (including a 70-30 indie split)

According to the guy, EARLY mail in independents split 70/30 on average. Not all independents

Rich white guy from Ohio State - I am shocked!

its 381, not 389. But damn close.

I mean, that part of Oregon wants to merge with Idaho. Should tell you all someone needs to know about it

2016 was Clinton 42.9, Trump 39. The margin wasn’t that far off (3.9, versus 2.9 actual) God that election was something else.

They still have to turn out, regardless of whether the rural vote on the weekend or not.

2020 - Biden 52, Trump 45 (actual 51.3, 46.8) 2016 - can’t find it

When Dems turn out in Milwaukee, good things happen