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Js1

Certifiably Surly - no CR
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Everything posted by Js1

  1. Js1
    Nyt had Trump only up 4 in NE-01
  2. Js1
    And it was 50,000 people. It was not a small national sample size
  3. Js1
    Tufts annual pre-election survey - 51-47 Harris
  4. Js1
    Why are Republicans destroying ballot collection boxes if they’re winning bigly?
  5. Js1
    Voting was so easy in 2020 that I just don’t like comparing anything to it right now. I think 2024 is going to set a new baseline - Republicans are voting early again, Dems are voting on E-Day again. We saw way less insane splits in 2022 - everyone doomed over the EV data but then, surprise, Dems turned out on Election Day too! And for a more Republican an electorate in 2022, we saw a lot of ticket splitting and/or crossover from R to D. Only way it was as close in the House as it was and it should not have been Turnout is 65% of it, but persuasion is the rest.
  6. Js1
    Man I’ve been abysmal all season and hit 196 points this weekend Have LaPorta on my bench too. I am v invested in the Lions season this year I guess
  7. Js1
    Wait she’s only +1 with indies and leads by 4? What’s the issue then? She’s doing better than Biden among some of the most likely to vote demographics - college educated voters (men and women). Also don’t doom over one poll’s sub samples.
  8. Js1
    Also I can’t believe some of y’all think I’m AI. That is so funny. Yes, someone pointed me to the discord where yall talked about me 😂
  9. Js1
    I’m also of the belief that all these polls of the senate candidates running 3-5 points ahead of Harris are bunk. I think they will ultimately settle at the same % (with 1-2 points, but not 3-5+) and most of it is just pollsters doing Trump adjustments at the top
  10. Js1
    Yeah I just saw the NYT NE poll had NE-03, the most rural district, at Trump +51. He won that +52. There is a thought that MAGA has maxed out the rurals in a lot of places and if they shift even 1 or 2 points left, that dooms him with the suburban shift of 3+ points left. Or 5+ in some spots, I was being conservative with 3
  11. Js1
    NYT: Cruz +4 Fischer +2 (feels like the first non-internal showing this is actually a close race)
  12. Js1
    NYT has Trump +10 in Texas (lol no) but Cruz only +4 Also Harris +12 in NE-02 and only -4 in NE-01
  13. Js1
    That’s not listed under his “recent work” so fake? Or they changed it?
  14. Js1

    Texas Women's Soccer

    Js1 replied to Js1's topic in UT Sports

    MSST won the regular season going 9-0-0 SoCar did beat Auburn, so we finished all alone in third place. Will wait for the bracket to shake out but we get a bye and play the 6v11 winner. 2pm Tuesday Nov 5 on SECN. Don’t think there’s anything else important that day
  15. Js1
    If they’re older in traditionally Dem counties, they could be older black people voting for Kamala? Maybe haven’t voted since 2008/12 but re-registered to vote in 2024?
  16. Js1
    It’s a Nazi rally on racist steroids. Amazing closing message
  17. Js1
    Loyal bootlicker
  18. Js1
    Obama gave them the business and they listened?
  19. Js1
    And 51-47 or so has been my PV guess. Well 51-46 but close
  20. Js1
    Idk, bc it’s a good distraction and people want to know. And I’ve said I think they’ll move towards Harris this week so pollsters can be “right” as we hit single digits until the election
  21. Js1
    Taking a dump at a Love’s Fuck OU
  22. Js1
    ABC: Harris 51-47. Last poll was only +2
  23. Js1
    GOP has already triaged like 2 House Republicans from CA and shifted a ton of resources to try and save a third (Steele)
  24. Js1
    Who is gonna rake if we deport all the Mexicans??
  25. Js1
    Michigan didn’t have early in person voting until this year?

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