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Js1

Certifiably Surly - no CR
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Everything posted by Js1

  1. Js1
    Some Danny Davis tweets: And one I didn't see until this morning and @perfectchaos007 is going to throw something
  2. Js1
    Vic needs to dial it back in practice sometimes. Or, like perfectchaos said, pray to a different God.
  3. Js1
    Don't explain things to someone who just rolled in this week to spout that Trump is going to win, Nate Silver is always right and doesn't understand what the hell we've been talking about for weeks.
  4. Js1
    You can run, you can hide, but you can never escape the Jeb! memes
  5. Js1
    PA Firewall: 371k (D/R) and 423.5 with idies Also, because a lot of people here take this dude as gospel: Carville: 3 Reasons Why Harris Wins
  6. Js1
    Saw this in PA and AZ especially. Suddenly all the trash starting piling up the last 3 weeks and shifted all the averages far to the right of the eventual outcome
  7. Js1
    The only chance we would have to get rid of the electoral college
  8. Js1
    NYT/Siena has also been very transparent that they oversample Trump voters
  9. Js1
    Yep, winning bigger in TX/FL and cutting into her huge margin in CA/NY, but not by more than a 1-2 points, is not going to offset her winning MI, PA, WI. Winning the states he's supposed to win bigger, and losing the states she will win by slightly smaller margins, isn't going to help him in the EC. But she's still going to win the PV.
  10. Js1
    Nothing at all has moved the popular vote 3 points right. Nothing has moved this race more than a point in either direction in the last 6 fucking weeks. NYT/Siena's national polling has been super fucking Trump friendly.
  11. Js1
    It's true. Polls oversampling Trumpier demos, like WWC men, ignores college educated men and suburban women voting for Harris.
  12. Js1
    Big reason why Trump’s EC advantage is much smaller. Harris can win the EC with as small as a 0.5% PV win bc Dems were much stronger in the blue wall in 2022 than the sun belt. But it’s unlikely to be that small of a margin Racking up bigger wins in TX/FL and reducing her margins in CA/NY doesn't mean shit for the EC if she still wins MI, PA, WI
  13. Js1
    One of the reasons for that was the AVR law in NV since 2020 just automatically registering everyone as NPA for new registrations
  14. Js1
    Biden won them 50-46 in NC. I think she should win them 55-45 or close to that. Which means 6-7% of Republicans are choosing here, which is in line with polling
  15. Js1

    Texas Women's Soccer

    Js1 replied to Js1's topic in UT Sports

    One match left at Georgia. RPI #30 We are #31. We are def in, but we aren’t hosting a game, most likely. 8th ranked SEC team in RPI but 4th in conference. We had a weak non-conf schedule Auburn plays SoCar, who is behind Texas and Auburn by a point. We have to win Sunday to finish top 3, guaranteed A win + Auburn draw = Texas 19 points, Auburn 17 points A win + Auburn loss = Texas 19, South Carolina 18, Auburn 16 Draw + Auburn/SoCar draw = Texas 17, Auburn 17, SoCar 16 (not sure the tie break, our highest standing common opponent is Georgia, so both draws, then Alabama, both draws, so aggy, which we won and they lost)
  16. Js1
    A friend from out of state asked me if she wins, how many republicans in the county will get butt hurt and move. I’m sure Montgomery would be happy to take them
  17. Js1
    Biden won NC indies by 4. Do I think she's going to win them 60-40? No, but I do think she's likely winning 8-10% of Republicans.
  18. Js1
    Georgia is the only state so far that has eclipsed 40% of 2020 turnout Vermont, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida are in the 30-39% range
  19. Js1
    We are at the “democrats freak out about early voting” stage like we were in 2022. The EDay voting will be 50/50 or close to it. GOP don’t hate early voting as much the last 2 years Just say you like it rough, girl. No judgement here
  20. Js1
    That’s how you know they’re wrong. Bc they said the same thing in 2022
  21. Js1
    Off cycle Texas elections are ass. 2023 mayoral in Houston was pretty bad too
  22. Js1
    Vic also mentioned in media recently that it’s still a coin flip whether Holle or Phelia starts as the third guard, but whoever doesn’t is likely an SEC 6th Player of the Year candidate Harmon Booker Holle/Phelia Moore Jones Second unit is Preston, Jak/Codio, Holle/Phelia, Carlton, Oldacre, most likely. And you still have Lee and Boutilier, who finally got cleared this week Legit 12 deep + Boutilier
  23. Js1
  24. Js1
    I believe they confirmed it tonight at Shell Energy?
  25. Js1

    Texas Women's Soccer

    Js1 replied to Js1's topic in UT Sports

    3 second half goals to beat Mizzou, 3-1

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