Dahobbs

Why? Philly on pace to exceed 2020s vote totals seems like pretty great news to me.

Based off what?

I'll take that shift to the left nationwide please, thank you.

That's not how you humble brag my good sir.

Oh, I know. I'm just confused about the voting they do. As I said, seems like they just fuck with everyone.

Maybe she won the GOP 3-1 and lost the indies, you think about that? Also, how does that town's politics change so much every election? Different people? Just fucking with everybody?

Significantly more registered Republicans voted than registered Democrats in Arizona in 2020 and 2022. It worked out ok. The hole isn't massive at all.

My 8-year old loves the Cybertruck and thinks it is the coolest vehicle ever.

That's exactly what they expect. That's how their models let them "correct" for low response rates. It's all bullshit.

I didn't think Nate Silver was associated with 538 any longer?

What a weird thing to ask. Although given Trump's attempts to thwart democracy before, I guess it is a legitimate question.

Biden might agree to pardon him in exchange for Trump moving to Russia. I hear there are plenty of windows there.

You didn't gather that from the video?

FRAUD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So... 5th Circuit? Likely story.

It is fucking entertainment for these people. That's all it is.

Anecdote: I'm told my father-in-law, who twice before voted for Trump and who've I've had some heated conversations with in the past, is done with him. I don't think he'll vote for Harris, you know since liberals are still out for world domination, but will not vote for Trump. I have to believe his support peaked in 2020. I don't think he hits near the number of votes he did then. And I think Harris gets more than Biden. Let's make it happen.

Why is turnout percentage the metric you think matters? We don't have 2016, but we could use one of his favorite sources, TargetSmart, and see numbers for 2020 and 2022. According to that, the difference in 2020 was 12.2% (58.4% - 70.6%) for the final vote. In 2022 it was similar at 12.8% (43.7% - 56.5%). One thing to know, Georgia is a bit tricky about voters roll and what it uses as turnout percentage. It is comparing "active" voters, which is actually a significantly smaller number than registered voters. https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/elections/how-many-registered-voters-in-georgia/85-09aed09a-c375-4b6a-8618-62a34ba07d5b For instance, in 2022, Georgia has 7,007,154 "active voters" but probably closer to 7.9 million registered voters. The TargetSmart numbers are using an estimate for registered voters. The Georgia Secretary of State data is all based upon "active" voters. Based on the numbers from Election Data Hub, Georgia today has: 3,574,436 active white voters (2,251,895 / .63) [turnout divided by turnout %] 2,054,386 active black voters (1,021,030 / .497) [turnout divided by turnout %] Georgia's Active Voters Report provides data as of December 2021 (https://sos.ga.gov/georgia-active-voters-report), which shows: 3,716,904 active white voters 2,058,705 active black voters Based on that, there are 142,468 fewer active white voters now than in 2021, a 3.8% decrease. And there are 4,319 fewer active black voters, a .2% decrease. Because active white voters decreased more, each white vote is going to count more in terms of turnout percentage (as used by Georgia with "active voters"). If you were to compare the current votes with the 2021 active voter numbers, the turnout difference becomes less stark and compares favorably with 2020 and 2022 at 11%. (60.5 - 49.5) Finally, I'll note that the Election Data Hub numbers are somewhat suspect. For instance, the top line number currently reports 4,017,718 votes, 7,242,975 active voters, for a 55.5% turnout (that math checks out). However, if you add up all the votes for each race (or each gender), the total numbers of votes is only 3.8 million. I'm not sure if the topline is updated separately from the breakouts or if the whole thing is generally broken.

Keep trying.

Yeah, I saw something about that. I guess a pet squirrel was killed or something?

Promissory estoppel might come into play

If it is what you say, I love it.

I tried to find this and cannot. I was going to accept his offer.

So he learned nothing from his Twitter offer. Good to know. Sounds like this will end up being an interesting class action.