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Dahobbs

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Everything posted by Dahobbs

  1. Dahobbs
    Many pollsters try to solve the low response rates problem by over sampling certain demographics. But when you mold your sample to fit pre-determined assumptions, you'll be incapable of detecting changes in a true random sample. Their results are only accurate to the extent their assumptions are accurate.
  2. Dahobbs
    She clearly can't do that. You can't unring that bell..
  3. Dahobbs
    I don't understand any reasoning that assumes there is a large population of Trump voters that sat out 2020 but will vote in 2024. Just a ridiculous assumption.
  4. Dahobbs
    Exactly. All the weighing and assumptions are the reasons the polls have sucked. Trying to "fix" the sample just creates greater volatility.
  5. Dahobbs
    Or just wheel him under a tree and let his natural predator work.
  6. Dahobbs
    Beamer's IQ can't be north of 90. Just run the fucking ball.
  7. Dahobbs
    This is why the liberals have been forcing sex changes on men. Wake up sheeple!
  8. Dahobbs
    So... you said Trump up 4-5 would indicate a great day for Kamala and Trump up 8-10 means he likely wins. What does Kamala up 3 mean? Hell freezing over?
  9. Dahobbs
    So the earlier leak was real.
  10. Dahobbs
    0% chance he is voting Trump.
  11. Dahobbs
    Damn, beat me to it, you quick-witted bastard.
  12. Dahobbs
    Please work out a deal with Aubrey Plaza while you're at it. Thanks!
  13. Dahobbs
    Because of how markets work. One sees much greater volume than the other.
  14. Dahobbs
  15. Dahobbs
    So you're saying that could have an impact when Trump won Florida in 2020 by *checks notes * 371,000 votes?
  16. Dahobbs
    LOL, from the article: Ah, yes, he went to Coachella. Not the concert mind you, just the general area. And the his supporters were left without busses (https://ktla.com/news/california/attendees-describe-absolute-chaos-after-trumps-southern-california-rally/). Apparently, according to Sean, this is good vibes for Trump. Let's see what else Sean has got: Oh. Yes, yes, of course. I guess the thing that went horribly counts as good vibes. And that's pretty much all he had to say in favor of Trump in the article. There is some stuff about Nevada I guess, but beyond that he had nothing. So vibes are what everyone is missing. And apparently the vibes for Trump are good. Thanks, Sean.
  17. Dahobbs
    Yeah. As a different comparison, EV in 2024 is currently up 47% on 2022 early vote with a day to go (8,060,049 EV in 2024 so far, 5,497,027 total EV in 2022). If the 2024 total vote is up 47% on 2022 total vote, you'd be looking at 11.9 million voters, which would surpass 2020 total vote by 800,000, or 107% of the 2020 vote. That would actually slightly outpace our population growth over the last 4 years. Even if we get no other early votes and election day voting volume ends up the same as 2022 (a non-presidential year), you'd still be talking about 10.6 million voters. But we are obviously going to get more votes today. You could be super conservative and just use the totals from the 30th for today, which would by 619,000 votes. That alone would get us above the 2020 election totals. Unless election day is lighter than 2022, we'll easily pass 2020's vote numbers.
  18. Dahobbs
    I wouldn't go that far. He won Iowa by 8.2% in 2020. I don't think a repeat of that number signals a likely Trump win by any stretch.
  19. Dahobbs
    Is your column header "2020 Comp. through D10" accurate or is that supposed to by D11?
  20. Dahobbs
    I'm going to start drinking tonight and will wake up Wednesday afternoon. See y'all then! This may be an effective way to convince some that maybe "wokeness" isn't so bad if it gets us that.
  21. Dahobbs
    I don't think any amount of context is going to make it anything but a terrible, despicable thing for a former president and current presidential candidate to say.
  22. Dahobbs
    2020 had a record number of voters and turnout % was significantly higher than 2016. I'd be more than a little surprised if they felt their vote didn't matter in the face of that much enthusiasm.
  23. Dahobbs
    Mother fucker.
  24. Dahobbs
    My parents are looking to move to Portugal. They spent like 4 weeks there this year looking at places. Like you, I took some Portuguese, but only of the Brazilian variety, so I cannot understand what anyone says in Portugal.
  25. Dahobbs
    Just trying to interject some positivity. Texas isn't going to flip. But, if Dems show out on election day like I expect, I think it'll be a lot closer than the polls show.

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