Dahobbs

Just trying to interject some positivity. Texas isn't going to flip. But, if Dems show out on election day like I expect, I think it'll be a lot closer than the polls show.

It actually has 120,00 of the newly registered as rural (27% of newly registered) and 111,000 of the registered but not vote group as rural (32% of the previously registered). Do we really think there are tens of thousands 2020 rural registered voters that didn't come out for Trump in 2020 and yet are going to come out for him now? That doesn't make much sense to me.

Yeah, edited, it was supposed to be less than 700,000.

Sure, definitely a factor with new voters. But that's why I think the registered in 2020 but did not vote group is interesting.

Cross posting:

According to Target Smart, 790,918 people have EV voted in Texas that did not vote in 2020, or 12% of the current vote. 443,655 of those weren't registered in 2020. I think more interesting is the 342,319 that were registered, but didn't vote in 2020 or 2022. Maybe those are GOP voters coming back to him. But I doubt it. Trump won Texas in 2020 by 600,000 votes.

A five point swing left there would signal pretty great stuff everywhere else.

One of the few instances where you really need Lynn Hughes to instantly destroy a suit.

Per above, Dems should have a lot more votes left than GOP. If they show up, it gets real tight.

Unlike most places, Nevada actually has a slight majority of men. The voting population tends to be essentially evenly split. a 2% edge for women would be pretty big if true and if it holds.

Don't worry. Your body, your vote. You don't have to tell her.

Assuming that Target Smart has correct demographic information, which I most certainly question, comparison to 2020 is really misleading because of clear change in early voting patterns due to the pandemic. A comparison to 2022 is in my mind more interesting as it shows a greater voter share for Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and Hispanic voters and a lower White share (66.6% in 2024 versus 70.1% in 2022 for early vote 6 days out). The early vote share for whites in 2022 decreased over the last 6 days to 68.5%. And on election date that percentage shrank further to 66.9%. Another interesting data point, in 2020 absentee ballots favored Democrats (which was a change from what had previously occurred). According to TargetEarly, only 19.5% (332,000 of 1,699,000) of the those white absentee voters from 2020 have voted early so far. On the other hand, 46% (377,000 of 813,000) of the white election day voters from 2020 have already voted. Assuming that election day vote favored Trump, this may be additional evidence that Trump is cannibalizing election day voters in the early vote. It would also suggest that Harris has a lot more votes still available. The question there is whether this shows reduced enthusiasm (I doubt that) or a shift back to election day voting (more likely in my opinion). Oh, and 5.6% (248,000) of the white early vote so far was unregistered in 2020. And 4.5% (197,000) were registered in 2020 but didn't vote in 2020 (or apparently 2022).

No. Just no. If it was just economic, you wouldn't see the drastic party splits in terms of states of migration.

I have irrational confidence that Harris wins and by quite a bit. Well, I'm not sure it is irrational, but isn't based on hard data.

Media manipulation, he is good at. Winning elections? Different story.

Where is your outrage at the intentional, not self-reported, fraudulent efforts by MAGA?

I'm sure there is some light rape in there somewhere.

You're conflating cause and effect here.

Women are also 55+% in Georgia.

The fact that it randomly correlated doesn't mean it should be thought of us predictive. We know that there are often differences in early voting and election day voting. This is true across states and across elections. You're assumption is simply not warranted.

You're still both to the rest of us, don't worry. You're also definitely a piece of shit.

It didn't appear to be an issue in that game. His throws were much better and looked more normal than OU or Georgia.

Buzz is old. I don't think younger Buzz would be about this.

Drone strike.