Hondo

About the only thing more predictable than Oregon being in the CFP with a win is Beau Vine following me around, "drooling" on every post. Reminds me of my 2 year old niece when she didn't have the vocabulary to express herself, so she just stomped around all angsty. Use your words, little buddy. Tell me what's wrong.

I don't disagree with the rationale. I simply don't see them leaving the 1-loss SEC champ out of the playoff. A CFP without "2x Defending National Champion UGA" or the "1-loss team that knocked off the 2x Defending National Champion UGA to win the SECCG" ... which in this case is already "Nick Saban's Alabama"...? File it under "things that are probably not gonna happen" for whatever the reason. Obviously, that's a situation where I'll be thrilled to be proven wrong.

I'm potentially going to win the lottery tonight.

SEC Champ is in, whether UGA or Alabama PAC-12 Champ is in, whether Oregon or Washington If Texas gets in, it will be in the slot vacated by Big 10 or ACC with a Michigan or FSU loss. SEC Champ PAC-12 Champ ACC/Big 10 Champ Texas If BOTH FSU and Michigan lose, then that's where a 1-loss non conference champ UGA or Ohio State starts coming into play. Texas in one of those slots and UGA/OSU in the other. SEC Champ PAC-12 Champ Texas UGA or Ohio State

Oregon for sure, and then Texas or Alabama. The models say that favors Texas, but if I was going to put money on it, I'd lay it on "Texas has the head-to-head, but Alabama just knocked off 2 x defending champ and 28 game win streak Georgia" with the addition of some "SEC this and SEC that" stuff. Oregon and Bama. We're out.

Don't sharpshoot. You might look special to the people in the middle of the distribution, but not anyone else. Of course there's a "non-zero" chance, mathematically speaking. There's a non-zero chance I'll win the lottery tonight if I buy a single ticket. Is there an appreciable difference between 0 tickets and 1 ticket, other than going from zero to non-zero? Am I going to win the lottery? I get this is an opportunity to look smart and nerd out, but in practical terms, it's pretty easy to see how it's very likely to play out. But hey, if ya'll want to get dorky about it, have at it. But it would be nice to see all the people trying to flex their brains actually do the math and show their work (I suspect few actually can).

Agreed, but you're going to get all kinds of pushback on this one. My opinion: Oregon is already ahead of Texas. Oregon beats #3 Washington to win their conference. Texas beats #18 Oklahoma State to win theirs. Thinking this results in Texas going in ahead of Oregon is absurd. There's a ton of pretzel logic, wish casting, and transitive relation application in this thread. It's rather amusing to see it prefaced with "you're a fucking idiot" and then closed out with "period/full stop." This is a great example of "choose your words carefully; you may have to eat them later." I think the better teams will win this weekend, but there's still potential for a lot of people making "zero chance, full stop" predictions and calling people stupid to have egg on their faces.

No it doesn't. You're getting suckered into assuming a transitive relation between football games. If you go by your logic, Oklahoma's win would be the best of the season because they beat the team that beat the team that beat UGA. But then Oklahoma State's win over Oklahoma would be the best. If they beat Texas, then they'll have beaten the team that beat the team that beat UGA AND the team that beat the team that beat the team that beat UGA. Oklahoma State should be in the CFP.

We're never going to make it to 60+ pages if you summarize it in 4 sentences like that. You can beef up your posts by calling someone a stupid fuck and/or pointing out that had we wouldn't be having this conversation had we simply beaten OU.

If Texas beats OSU and Oregon beats #3 Washington, they're going to leave out Oregon...who is CURRENTLY ranked 2 spots ahead of Texas without the big win over #3 in play? I don't see that happening. You forgot to include the metric that apparently trumps all. The "but we're Texas" metric.

No, no, no. There's two Os in "Goose", boys.

"Vibes" "I feel like" Name-calling I think I may have accidentally walked into the Ladies' Room.

"We are definitely going to be ... " Rankings come out "How are we not?!?!?" "There's no way ... " Rankings come out "What in the fuck?!?!?!" Valence Effect. Say it with me. "Valence...Effect"

I'm talking about the 45 pages of repetitive/circular handwringing and bickering over conflicting philosophies on who should/shouldn't make it, based on a multitude of scenarios, none of which we have any control over, whether it be the games' outcomes or the whims/subjectivity of the CFP Committee. I'll post my 1000-word thesis later, outlining what should happen should Alabama beat Georgia. It'll sound very similar to the other 93 already posted and I'll close it out with a low hanging piñata - "if we had just beaten OU..." - for the mentally deficient to whack away at.

Since wish-casting and the intensity of our "rooting" has zero impact on any of the games, we could always just enjoy an awesome Saturday of football and then find out who's CFP bound on Sunday. I think I'm going to do that.

He threw a pass into traffic and the end zone shot wasn't great, but Manning's fundamentals looked outstanding. Adrenaline dump probably had him feeling like he was throwing with someone else's arm there for a bit. I saw all I needed to see on the replay from behind on the play where he scrambled right for a nice gain. Quiet feet, shoulders cocked. Kid's absolutely got the details down to a degree Ewers can only dream of. Helps having a grandad and 2 uncles who were stud QBs, but still.

You should ease up on your tough guy routine, sport. You're a fucking lightweight behind your computer. I'd stay there lest you become even lighter.

Yep, the irony was not lost on that one. Valence Effect (overestimation of positive outcomes and underestimation of negative ones), one could argue, is tied to emotion.

What is it for the 2nd half?

Valence Effect on full display in this thread. I'm a UT alumnus. Born and raised Texan. Been rooting for UT since I was knee high to a grasshopper. Of course I want us to get in the CFP. Of course I think if we win out, we have a strong case to be in it. But ... Our big win against Alabama was a long time ago. Both teams look far different today. Alabama looks much better and I'd argue we look worse. We haven't been dominant in many games. We've scratched out wins vs. burying teams...unranked teams. We have a lot of injuries to key players (Brooks, Ewers, Worthy, Sanders, etc.). If FSU is going to suffer in the rankings due to not having Travis, then the same could be applied to us. I could easily see some "eye test" argument made in selecting another 1-loss conference champion over Texas (Oregon or Alabama; probably not FSU if they lose to UF and beat Louisville). Oregon is already ranked ahead of us, with the same record and with the same information the committee will have should Oregon and Texas both win out (both teams have already had their losses and their wins...except Oregon will likely have a big win over #4 Washington to bolster their argument). Alabama will have lost to us - "but that was early in the season and they still hadn't figured out what to do with Milroe. Since then, Texas has gotten worse and Alabama has only gotten better. Plus, they just knocked off the 2x defending champions Georgia." Ya'll like to talk about recency...well, Alabama will have just knocked off Georgia. And, for that matter, Georgia will have FINALLY LOST A GAME "to a really, really good Alabama squad." Texas has been in the wilderness for awhile and even while we sucked, we still acted like we owned college football. We're not exactly everybody's favorite right now and we're not going to get favors thrown our way just because "we're Texas." String together a few 10+ win seasons, legitimately be "we're baaaaack", and that'll likely change. But that hasn't happened yet. All that said, FSU losing is our best chance. Oregon/Washington will take care of one of those two and Ohio State/Michigan will take care of one of those. That's 2 spots. FSU loss will bump us up the 3rd spot to #4. Hate that Travis got hurt and definitely wouldn't wish for it to happen like this, but it did, so let's hope it pays off.

I don't think there's a chance in hell the SEC champion gets left out of the CFP. Alabama or Georgia will be in, possibly both if Alabama beats UGA in a close game.

Yeah, I'm aware that we're in the CFP system now vs. the BCS of the past. Thanks for the heads up. That example was one of mental gymnastics to justify their intended action, which is relevant no matter the system.

Maybe so and I hope for our sake, you're right. Hopefully it's all irrelevant hypotheticals anyway. We definitely have to beat Tech next week and then win the CCG before any of it matters. First things first.