When you know you're not going to get many (if any) fastballs for strikes and the guy has a good change up, you basically go up there with the approach of "count to 1, then swing opposite field." It's the only way to force you to let the ball travel. It also gives you a chance to see the bottom fall out of the change up and you can check/lay off.
As it is, they're up there with fastball timing and they're committing before the changeup dumps. On the breaking ball, they see spin and they're just looping their swing to keep the bat in the zone, hopefully long enough to make contact. Result - weak pull ground ball. Think opposite field and they'll barrel them up with some stank on it.
You don't beat pitchers like him with home runs (and the ball ain't carrying tonight anyway). You beat them with single after single after single. And you fucking run - stealing on those changeups in the dirt and hit-and-run on the others.