Fair points, and agree that the focus will have to be Kyiv or the UAF in the Dombas, the Russians can't execute on both simultaneously. I think we all agree the focus is Kyiv. IMO the questions then become, if they can seize Kyiv (and I am no way convinced they can) how long does it take, what are the casualties, and how much do they have to leave behind as an occupying force? Do they have the reserves and capability to get them into the field (also highly questionable) to be able to make a second big operational push? I agree with you and have my doubts.
My concern is how dug in the UAF is in the Donbas and if they are under air attack and artillery shelling this whole time, will they have the forces to hold off an encirclement if it comes to that point. I hope we never have to find out.
Map
I think we agree this map overstates the Russian position, but the Ukrainian Army is somewhat on an island, and the push for the Russians isn't overly far into Ukrainian territory to pull of an encirclement of troops there. Again, hope I am acting like tuttle tom fucking this whole line of thinking up.