Given the thread title, let's add the context to all the 4th down calls we're concerned with. Since the UH game, here's what we've done on 4th down:
Down/Dist, Field Pos, Score (Tex-opp), play result, points on drive
Vs UH
4th/2, opp 30, 0-0, 1st, 7
4th/6, opp 26, 21-7, TOD, 0
4th/1, Tex 45, 21-21, 1st, 0
4th/2, opp 44, 21-21, TOD, 0
4th/2, opp 15, 21-21, 1st, 3
Vs BYU
4th/2, opp 2, 21-6, TOD, 0
4th/1, opp 2, 21-6, TOD, 0
Vs KSU
4th/1, Tex 46, 10-0, TD, 7
4th/2, opp 12, 17-0, TOD, 0
4th/4, opp 37, 27-27, 1st, 3
So in the last 3 weeks, we are 5/10 on 4th down and that's not terrible in itself.
But looking a 4th down from the opponent's 30 or further (>46-yard FG) we are doing really well: 4/5 and scored 17 points on those drives. When going for 4th down inside FG range, we have been absolute shit: 1/5 and scored only 2 points.
Adding more context, when the score difference was 14 or more, we are 0/4 on 4th down. We were also in FG range in all of those cases. In each of these 4 cases, we gave up momentum and empowered a team that had been on the ropes.
I don't think anyone is arguing that Sark should never go for it on 4th down. I think "the binder" and recent performance shows that going for 4th and short between the 30's is a really good idea. But when we are up big and have a chance to pile 3 more on them, recent performance says, take the f'ing points. The Rig12 is already waiting for its chance to fuck us. We don't need to help them by giving up momentum too.