If Rex Tillerson believes that, Trump at the very least is aware of the possibility. Bill is talking about Matt Simmons’ theories, which isn’t exactly mainstream, but are theories a lot of people I respect absolutely believe. I think the Saudis have a lot of short term capability, but they can’t be the swing producer that a lot of people that are somewhat ignorant of the industry think they can be in the long term or even midterm. I think Rex (and subsequently other experts Trump will no doubt have consulted) would be one of those people and therefore Trump knows this.
The Saudis cannot replace what the US will lose with our declining shale basins in the coming years for long. I suspect Trump knows this and will do what he can do for the next 4 years to keep prices reasonable. And, to his credit, it’s working thus far. I doubt it can for 4 years, but he’ll fight hard to keep them low and blame other countries if he can’t. Good for lower gasoline prices, but this is the oil barons thread, not the populist politics thread.