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Rex Kramer

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Posts posted by Rex Kramer

  1. 8 minutes ago, MadTrapper said:

    I feel like you've been pounding this message for a while and, while I'd love it to become reality, I have a hard time seeing gas recover in any meaningful way in the near/medium term. The amount of uneconomic dry gas/associated gas we've discovered as an industry is truly amazing.  Would love to eat those words, though...

    I don’t think I have. I’ve been much more bullish on crude. I’m now (after reading a bunch of data) more bullish on natty. 

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  2. 28 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

    Nothing 18 months out is a fact. 

    Yeah well you’re correct. Weather and disaster permitting. There’s too much money in these projects for them not to come online. The only thing that can change my “fact” is a delay. 

    Edit to add all 4 Bcfd doesn’t come online in 18 months. It’s 3 distinct facilities coming on between this fall and 18 months. 

  3. 1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

    Speculation, not fact.

    Speculation, not fact.

    Fuck off, Rex, Dr. Beeper, Porterhouse.

    OPEC extending cuts at a $70 level is speculation, but ask any pundit. That’s the first thing any of them said when this announcement came out. 

    The 67% increase in export capacity is absolutely a fact. 

  4. 26 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

    You need an explanation as to whether they might ask for a capital injection if their businesses are facing failure?   I mean, I guess you're right to be dubious as we've never seen any other industry do this before with success.

     

    For a private equity investment fund disconnected from systemic risk?  I’ve seen literally thousands fail in the last 10 years.  None requested any capital from the government, much less received any.  It’s just a lazy, generic critique that gets thrown around a lot, and 99% of the time, the critique is applied to situations that are apples to the Great Recession’s oranges.  

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  5. 3 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

    Look, we only had to wait two months for another guess to be wrong

    https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/biden-harris-administration-continues-secure-good-deal-taxpayers-replenishment-7

    Today, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Petroleum Reserves announced that contracts have been awarded for the acquisition of 3.0 million barrels of U.S.-produced crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The contracts awarded today represent a fully subscribed solicitation for November delivery following the Request for Proposal (RFP) that was announced on May 17, 2024. The 3 million barrels are being purchased for an average price of $77.69, well below the average of about $95 per barrel that SPR crude was sold for in 2022, securing a good deal for taxpayers. To date, DOE has purchased a total of 38.60 million barrels of oil for the SPR for an average price of $77.24 

    A guess?  Wrong?  Post it. 

    Regardless, nice red herring to avoid addressing my statement. 

  6. 2 hours ago, safe sex said:

    Were you under the impression I was saying that security deposits don't exist?

    Yes. Guess you had some other point. 

    1 hour ago, Brian Fantana said:

    Let him cook he's dropping that deep insider knowledge. And totally not trying to do a weird flex.

    It’s odd that anything about what I posted would be considered a flex. Flexing on a message board where nobody except one guy knows me. 

  7. On 6/4/2024 at 11:17 PM, bolverk said:

    Rex does seem to adopt a hyperaggressive approach to every topic and goes out of his way to pick fights with strawmen.

    He reminds me of a toy poodle my sister had when we were kids that would walk up to a wall and just start barking at it for no reason. It feels like he's got some anger issues in his real life that he's working out by aiming them at the board which, I suppose, is better than the alternative.

    I mean there was a fucking debate here about how it was inappropriate for Israel to have taken out Iranian officials in Lebanon or Syria after 10/7. Posters here claimed Iran was justified in sending missiles and drones to Israel in a futile wasted “show of force”. Pointing out that posters here go out of their way to demonize Israel and justify the actions of terrible regimes is not a straw man. 

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  8. 2 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

    There are 15 pages of results on Airbnb for homes with at least 2 bed rooms that are available to rent for a weekend in the month of August. It's like this everywhere. Even in tiny little towns out in the sticks, you can find a place on Airbnb.

    Yeah. But it’s not a vacation home market, and Airbnb isn’t going to drive skewing numbers to 26%.

    1 minute ago, safe sex said:

    Don't worry; they will

    I have zero love for Blackrock, for many reasons. But I’m not sure how this is the case. They had nothing to do with ‘08 as far as I can remember. They’re a PE firm. 

    Im also not sure people remember how much money taxpayers made (and not lost) through the TARP programs from ‘08-‘11. 

    8 hours ago, safe sex said:

    My dude, I don't even want to tell you how many months of wages that is for me. Kindly fuck off; we live in entirely different worlds 

    Okay, well, I’m just telling you security deposits are actually very much a thing.  Also my situation is topical on the insane discrepancy between owning and leasing and how people set money on fire.

    My home had a burst pipe. We are in a 6-month rental. Insurance pays $18.5k per month.  We have a $10k security deposit and it’s the only thing I’ve come out of pocket.

    My mortgage is 1/3 of the monthly lease my insurance company is paying. My isolated case is unique in that I’m only leasing for 6 months and the homeowner was able to jack up the monthly lease from $12k to $18.5k because it’s not a 12-month lease. 

  9. 41 minutes ago, Brew said:

    You do realize that people who own multiple homes and those owned within corporate environments aren’t getting 2.75% mortgages, right? You could technically have 10 mortgages, but I can’t say I have ever seen anyone qualify. Usually, once they are past a few then they are dealing with bank side financing, not traditional backed mortgages.

    I understand that. I did use 2.75%, as it was pretty much a low, but have been careful to say “rates” and not “mortgage rates”. Up until about 18 months ago, entities had been able to probably accumulate massive portfolios at about a 5-6% cost of capital, and that was probably significantly lower if they were borrowing off of margin or some capital call facility. I do think there have been wealthy individuals / family offices that ultimately obtained first lien conforming or jumbo mortgages at lower rates. I know a guy in New York who owns about 75 homes I’d say specifically in Austin through a family LLC. I’ll ask him how he’s financed these purchases, but I do know they’re all lowly levered (relative to most other homeowners). Like probably not more than 50% LTV even at time of purchase. 

  10. 5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    If that is the case, an increase in invested owned homes necessarily means more families being either unwilling or unable to purchase their homes. If the market has shifted such that a greater percentage of homes are vacation homes, then that might explain the trend as well.

    It doesn’t necessarily mean that at all. There are many factors. First, supply of homes. Second, the quantity of homes a company buys versus the one-home family will skew the percentages. Third, if a prospective working class homeowner is priced out of central Fort Worth but buys in Mansfield. 

    Your last sentence doesn’t explain anything pertinent to the article. Fort Worth has no vacation home market. 

  11. 1 minute ago, gsoda3 said:
    1 hour ago, Rex Kramer said:
    It wasn’t really a big deal against OKC and it wasn’t at all against Minn. I’m just not concerned about that. 

    It wasn't an issue because we could afford to leave someone unguarded on the perimeter - namely giddy. Against Boston we can't leave anyone alone. I hope you're right though.

    Hope I am too. All teams get cold. Most for large stretches of every game. I fully expect we will lose 1-2 games solely due to hot shooting.  That’s fine.

    Kidd, Luka and Ky are master orchestrators of runs.  Knowing when to stay cool when the other team is hot, knowing how to conserve energy, and knowing when to strike. And they throw fucking daggers. 

  12. 2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    You'd have to explain why investors are pouring more money into the housing sector rather than other sectors over that period and why the bulk of the population is less willing or able to invest in homeownership over the same period. If homeownership is a good investment, but not necessarily the best investment for those that can save, you'd think it would be prioritized more by those who need a home anyway and less by those who have other options on where to invest. I just don't think low interest rates, acting alone, is a good explanation for the trend we have seen. However, I could see that contributing to the trend in concert with other factors. 

    No, I don't need to explain that at all. Investors pour money into a vast array of shit. You know that. 

    How do you know the “bulk” of the population  is less willing or able to buy a good home?  Last I checked, one home is sufficient for a family. If you’re building a portfolio, you’ll buy more than one home. 

    Im not going to rehash arguments made about a big segment getting priced out by lower rates. This is 95%+ attributable to interest rates. 

  13. 1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

    What on earth are you talking about? You've been speaking gibberish most of this thread. I cant help that others called you out on it. I certainly didn't ask for any help in dealing with the mighty Rex Kramer. 

    At any rate, lower, but non-zero, interest rates is a decent enough match for the data. I'm not sure it explains why lowered interest rates would lead to outsized investment by others and not homeowners, but at least the data generally correlates. 

    I’ve not been speaking gibberish. I’ve been very clear. 

    Sounds like you’ve totally changed your mind on rates. If you don’t know why a 2.75% mortgage rate might lead to outsized investment in that space by those that can afford multiple homes, relative to individuals, I’m not sure you’re capable of having this conversation. 

  14. 3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

    I've been thinking about renting my home to my grown son and his GF instead of selling it. Now, after reading Surly, I am conflicted. Am I baaad?

    It’s not that Surly shouldn’t be your barometer. Whatever is deemed bad by Surly is generally a sensible practice. I know many people that have done the same with their kids. 

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  15. 8 hours ago, texasdago said:

    Man, there's nothing satisfying about any of those.  Just awful.  Awful for the people attacked... awful to see dog die.  Not saying they didn't need to do but still not pleasant.

    It’s like watching terrorists die. I don’t get anything out of those videos other that a sliver of satisfaction there is one fewer in the world. They all need to be terminated. 

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