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6116 Surly 1%About Hefeweizen

- Birthday January 1
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Fuck you.
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Short answer, yes. Given the increase in extreme precipitation I am actually concerned that our PMP (probable maximum precipitation) models are likely to be undersized. Not to be flippant but those could affect hundreds of thousands instead of hundreds of people. A PMF (probable maximum flood) is used to evaluate dam safety. If the PMF is not sufficiently conservative, the spillway will be undersized. Then a lot of people would be at risk. Lake Travis, thank goodness, is protected by a dam that is so over designed I don't think there is much risk (and if it ever reaches flood stage it's game over anyway).
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I'm sorry I don't have anything to add except how awful I feel about all of this. One thing that is clear, though - our statistical models are chasing climate change and unfortunately appear to not be equipped to catch up. We're using what is called Atlas 14 (NOAA's newest prediction model for precipitation) and it falls way short of the rainfall totals we're seeing in localized areas. Is it possible that these events are way outside the normal probabilities of exceedance? Yes, it's possible. It's not statistically likely given the frequency of exceedance, though. As I was telling a licensed engineer who was revising a (500 year!) floodplain the other day, you're just weighing the odds of a larger event against the cost of increasing fill/conveyance. It's ultimately not going to matter if the design storm is inadequate; the fault will lie entirely on whoever is promulgating a maximum exceedance event as less than its actual volume. Engineers can only do so much with the data provided, and climate change is making it so the backwards looking statistical models are just not adequate in a lot of cases.
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Oh no, anyways.
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The amount of seeds eliminated is shocking. This just goes to show no one knows how to play on grass. Serve is king and Gauff hits like half her first serves.
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Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)
Hefeweizen replied to surlybevo's topic in Business and Markets
There is one valuable utility to these coins and it is bypassing currency exchanges which are useless. My brother gets paid in USD and converts to real using BTC and pays next to nothing for it. I totally see the utility there. As a store of value, fuck off. But to move quickly from different currencies, hell yes. -
Elon Musk: Nazi traitor piece of shit [Confirmed]
Hefeweizen replied to MaybeACoordinator's topic in Daily Texan
Fuck I’m going to root for Elmo now? What the ever loving fuck is going here? -
Realize that most of these guys have just now understood the US is like an elephant that just snorted coke. You probably just want to get out of the way for a while until the elephant crashes or finds something else to fuck up. You aren’t winning a head to head battle. So worst case, you fold, take a loss, and bide your time. They don’t have have much of a choice.
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Rick Perry was just a typical grifter politician. I remember 30 years ago him coming into my old bosses office to talk about the manor airport site. He was just a dumb guy who was pretty likable and political. Nothing like the evil criminals we like to put in office these days.
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I knew Avis and Budget were the same, but not Enterprise and their sisters. It's interesting because their service is superior to all the other brands. My company uses Enterprise exclusively because of our experience with them.
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Same at UC system schools. Just pay via echeck without fee. In the case of UC it's still like a 50 cent fee but for a 15k payment whatever. There isn't a way to game tuition payments that I found to work to be honest. I tried all the different alternatives.
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
Hefeweizen replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
I'll be honest in that in my retirement calculations SS doesn't even factor. I am expecting our debt payments to get so bad that the government slashes benefits. FWIW I'm early fifties and financially ready to retire but nervous wife, kids with big post college expenses (post grad education) and extreme guilt about leaving the team I built over 25 years. The US is coming to a reckoning soon. I'm not a doomsday cultist but our debt service expense is the most rapidly growing expense of the federal government and I think we're on the precipice of the doom spiral of debt. -
Elon Musk: Nazi traitor piece of shit [Confirmed]
Hefeweizen replied to MaybeACoordinator's topic in Daily Texan
They don’t fucking care, Elmo. Your EV subsidies are gone and your car company is going to need to shed a lot of shareholder value soon.
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