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Hefeweizen

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Hefeweizen

  1. Wow that was fun watching aggy get slaughtered. Almost as fun as watching the horns kick the shit out of tooth paste.
  2. Same as it ever was. Kleptocracy moose out front should have told ya. Every one of these crises has ended up with the industry more regulated for a while. Then they buy legislators, wait for the outrage to die down, and deregulate while their minions in Washington let them run wild. Fucking banks.
  3. Truth sometimes has to be in your face. Anyone defending this piece of dick should take a hike and go root for Ole Piss.
  4. For what it’s worth some of the big private wealth advisors are now telling clients to sell into rallies. There is real fear right now. I am either too dumb or too brave but my body is ready.
  5. Another record month… wait, what? All we need is a few more back collapses and we can go back to the Brrrrrrrt machine?
  6. Hello darkness my old friend.
  7. U2 sucks. Boring bland band. song pop party on Apple has seriously made me question the music that’s out there today.
  8. They’ve aged as well as that porn star on their album cover.
  9. They’re not nearly as smart as they think they are . That is the main problem. Knowing what you don’t know is the biggest challenge professionals face. Engineers lose their license for practicing outside their area of expertise. Attorneys refer clients to experts in other areas. Doctors refer to specialists. Bankers say hold my beer.
  10. The LinkedIn SVB circle jerk is hilariously tone deaf. That whole site has a for the 1 percent feeling to it but the bankers talking about their noble lending mission is cringey.
  11. Man this doesn’t feel like the sand is shifting under our feet. A lot of unsettled and unseen movement going on.
  12. Again responding to the first point: read the release from the Fed, FDIC, and Treasury. It’s opaque but this is the guarantee: Treasury Secretary Yellen will make up to $25 billion available as a backstop for this BTFP, but the Fed said it does not think it will have to draw on those funds. So likely this won’t cost taxpayers but it’s sure nice to have a 25 bill cushion for transactions. Can I get that? Edit: carrying party risk is a cost. Just in case that wasn’t clear. Go try to get a surety to post a 25 billion guarantee lfor you and get back to me on the premium. Because that’s what the taxpayer is doing, acting as the surety here.
  13. This is all solid. The part of the solution that I find most troubling is I see the Fed and Treasury taking on the risk of holding the assets until a buyer is found. Some may say no harm, no foul if they’re disposed of at face value or higher, but I think there’s a real problem with moral hazard going forward. There is supposed to be risk in exchange for the compensation of lending. Remove that risk and you indirectly encourage aberrant lending behaviors. Then pass regulations to address it, which subsequently get diluted or removed; and you get the cycle of more complex but ever less efficient systems. I think there are a lot of good intentions here on the regulatory side but this story is just in its first few chapters.
  14. Not responding to make a longcat but if you think the other banking institutions participating in the FDIC are the backstop I have news for you. This was brokered by the Treasury.
  15. Yup. Exactly right.
  16. I suspect the parsing of the statement is that the taxpayers are just carrying this for a little while as the assets are sold and depositors made whole. Fucking tired of government for the FAFO bailout but the alternative was pretty ugly. Like at a minimum a lot of economic damage and at worst a loss of confidence in our banking system which is a huge set of promises.
  17. Yeah that’s a lie. But it was that or fuck around and find out with a contagion. At least one other bank in the same boat immediately. Watch next week.
  18. Gerg is fucked. He won’t work at a public bank again unless it’s as a teller.
  19. CEO, CFO, COO and CRO are at the best idiots and at worst criminals.
  20. Truth was best stated earlier, and I’m paraphrasing: SVB was great at raising capital. They were terrible at allocating their assets. I don’t think their lending to VCs is really even an issue. Terrible risk management that is going to cause another round of reassessment and then further deregulation. Because nothing solves risk management issues better than letting the banks decide how to allocate their assets. This is how you build moral hazard. No lesson at all except maybe for Greg Becker. He’s toast.
  21. Stanford is a funny school on that the student body is very liberal but they have some very conservative niches for business and law. Looks like someone didn’t know where they were, and got their feelings hurt.
  22. Yes. The problem right now is ensuring that there isn’t a loss of confidence in banking. Everyone forgets how fragile confidence can be. Nassim Taleb will probably get a chance to write another great couple of books.
  23. Yes. Use someone like fidelity who spreads it over institutions to keep it insured. This is a basic tenet of cash management and the government bookkeepers that I deal with take care of it for political subdivisions.
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