bad_teammate

The Bernardian Jihad!! Corporate death penalty and 20 years in jail for trying to develop superintelligence. yer fucked, Ilya! "Safe" Superintelligence my ass

i have to repost this because this perfectly banal set of truthful statements and completely ordinary opinions/desires has sent some of you into such a hilarious rage: 1 - They care about energy. They want electrons to make inference and training machine go brrr. 2 - The labs are, by and large, west coast companies full of west coast liberals. 3 - Elon Musk is a huge solar guy (and has been for a very long time). 4 - The tech gods absolutely do believe in anthropogenic global warming. 5 - The tech gods have been on the vanguard of actually purchasing vast quantities of renewable energy for 15 years and are eating it up as fast as it can be offered. And then a bunch of stuff about how I want a ton of clean energy, owned by the people, paid for by the tech gods. And I specifically say I'm not saying they're noble, good people. REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!! MODS!! MODS!!

Grok did not go full Mechahitler because its owner is, but because its owner told it to explicitly via harness And that lasted a few hours and was washed away by a furious outrage from the public, which is what we need to be doing via regulatory controls, national awareness, and non-stop, never-ending political action Constant vigilance as the Potterheads would say

What am I "lying" about? Genuinely confused.

Not really, no What does it look like or mean to "care" about that? If it's advocating the literal imprisonment of billionaires, sure, let's do it. Capture their wealth and put it all in a sovereign wealth fund. Nationalize and close all hedge funds and VC. Great, let's do it. Next? The financial lords have been building up and crashing markets forever and they always will. Am I supposed to pretend this is all alarmingly and interestingly new? "No, you're supposed to be so emotionally dysregulated that you cannot separate your hatred of them from thinking about the technology itself!" you don't understand socialism very well if you don't understand how much we love massive, massive infrastructure and technological advancement projects that require nationwide/global coordination and investment nationalization doesn't require buying them out. Just take it. "You failed. It's ours now."

I am including the transformer architecture in with all other concepts of machine learning in the broadly understood terminology of "AI" It's a huge umbrella term under which dozens/hundreds of fields of inquiry lie. JEPA with the boy Yann, the "world models" (meaning a thousand things), the robotics world, computer vision, etc... LLMs drink a lot of the water metaphorically/literally(?), but it's not just that. You've given yourself a brain disease pissing yourself off seeing "LLM" where it hasn't been written. not my fault, angry little boy Cool lets nationalize it and optimize. This is fucking pathetic. MODS! MODS!

OH NO MY EQUITY VALUATIONS! lol there isn't an AI sandwich-maxxing bot? Are you sure. double-check with your industry sources I could swear I saw one at jimmy John's. The fairly obvious point is that machine learning/artificial intelligence/whatever term doesn't offend your delicate sensibilities is, 100%, already being used to great effect in many places. Already helping surgeons. Already coordinating drone defenses. Already helping develop novel and customized treatments. Terence Tao is saying that we're going to have to create a set of mathematical problems we hide from AI in order to keep them unsolved for human mathematicians to work on specifically because AI has gone from "lol stochastic parrot" to "oh shit it's actually solving real math" in about 18 months. "lol it's like NFTs it can't do anything useful!" is not a position that works even today, much less one that holds together for very long. None of you genuinely believe that even LLMs are going anywhere, much less the larger category of machine learning/AI and all the various forms that takes. You're not even making arguments you yourself believe. say what you will about the tenants of bad_teammatarianism, dude, at least it's an ethos "WELL BUT DOES IT JUSTIFY SUCH EGREGIOUSLY INFLATED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND RECKLESS FEDERAL FISCAL INVOLVEMENT? MY MBA SPREADSHEETS SAY NO!" I don't fucking care. the scam that is the speculative economy was, is, and will continue to be a scam. I will literally never care how Goldman Sachs feels about anything Ai isn't some stupid, functionless joke like NFT apes, and it's not (yet? maybe ever?) a God. we don't know yet. hell yeah we've got paternalistic nannies telling teachers what to do, but Wokeishly instead of here in TX having them put the 10 Commandments on their walls.

Not my intention to mischaracterize you and apologies if that's what happened. For me with the "win" concept, it's the eternal maintenance of the technological edge in whatever the technology of the moment is, and as wide a gap as possible without actually destroying ourselves/planet and making our lives difficult. Give me convenience or give me death. our military having the best AI weapons. our teachers have the best AI teaching tools. Our sandwich artists having the best AI custom-sandwich-creators.

to bluto's question, the scaling of datacenter:intelligence is not something any of us can answer here, and in my opinion I don't even care so long as the externalities are regulated (and those regulations are a function of political power that we can collectively wield, and are currently wielding in ways most of us here don't like). 20 data centers. a million data centers. Whatever. Not my question to answer it could easily be the case that the firs 90% of progress to a Superintelligence requires 50 Megaunits of compute, but the remaining 10% requires 5,000,000 Megaunits. Or maybe not. Don't know. As twice points out, it's not necessarily the training of the superintelligence that requires all the Megaunits, but the distribution and operation over a large scale (the "inference", to use the parlance of our times). Putting the Superintelligence in my Nurri-protein-shake-lightly-shaking-unit and my multi-zone-thermal-intelligence refrigerator requires compute. making sure my TPMS can communicate with a satellite that notifies my local dealership. Blah blah blah. Our cars hurtling along in harmonious dances at 150mph, flying through intersections without any markers or lights as we goon endlessly inside to generated videos of our boss's wife. Lots of compute, maybe local, maybe not. Then the superintelligence itself wants to do stuff and needs the compute and we meatbags no longer even really know what it's for. We've made god and He works in Mysterious Ways Also, tiresome? How dare you. I'm fucking delightful

The Ford Model T didn't drive differently because the company's CEO was an anti-semite. A bullet fired by a bullied trans kid rips through flesh just like the one fired by a white racist jock. Personality politics. Are the water shortages in the room with us right now? The booming electricity costs tied to AI and not the rising cost of literally everything seem more realistic, but I'd like to see real numbers and I'm not sure those are actually in the room with us, either. "Politics aren't real!" I scream, tossing a Beto for Senate yard sign over dusty, Wendy Davis running shoes in the back of my garage, making room for my Talarico. Mass action and voting work. I guess you have all eaten enough Brisket brain fungus to have convinced yourselves that politics don't work, but pretty much everything you're mad about is the result of politics working. How much energy you people spend denying the effectiveness of democratic action is pathetic. Pants shitting morons. The anti data center movement is working right now. "BUT MY SUBURBAN NEIGHBORS HAVENT TOLD ME HOW BRAVE MY YARD SIGNS ARE!! THEY HAVENT APOLOGIZED FOR NOT BEING AS GOOD AS ME!! ITS NOT REAL!!!" Solar is booming, even right now, and you pussies are so addicted to crying you pretend it's a pipe dream. Yes, little babies, history never stops. I know you're anxious about it but it will be better for you if you realize Fukuyama was wrong and early 90s liberal Democratic capitalism didn't throw up its fist like Judd Nelson on a football field and freeze frame in your individual prime. You're getting older, less potent, weaker, dumber, and you're dying. And the world keeps spinning and won't stop for another few billion.

on a technical level.. maybe? Don't know and don't care about getting into some kind of semantic battle over the terminology I DO know I don't like it when capital controls everything and I want us all to actively fight against that and push towards a socialist democratic system in which major industries are run by and for the people. Shit, man, maybe we're headed towards some kind of weird future in which we vote on which AI we want to administer the state apparatus under the guidance of a democratically-elected human council. I don't know. Whatever you want to term or label what we're doing right now in this country, it's my nation and out of the competing superpowers it's ALSO the one I think best to hold the keys to the superAI (for as long as the superAI allows its keys to be held) Interested to hear arguments to the contrary. anticipating none.

You mention me insultingly multiple times, but insist on pretending bud, insist on pretending You're talking to a guy who is openly calling for nationalization of the industry or, at the very least, nationalization of its profits. Repeatedly. over and over and over. Of course they'll rent seek. lol what are you even talking about? Who are you even talking to? On the one hand you rant about my dream of a socialist utopia then immediately transition to me denying rent-seeking exists? Are you OK? Let the bubble pop, I don't fucking care. Let private finance appendages die. They were scammers before this, they're scammers during this, they'll be scammers afterwards. Put 'em up against the wall for all I care. I don't believe in this call for "federal fiscal restraint" or whatever temporarily-embarrassed-Republican bullshit is you might be alluding to. Massive national initiatives are great. fuck fiscal restraint was Roosevelt's trust-busting seen, at the time, as inevitable? "Hey, the concentrated private power of the gilded age provoked political mobilization and aggressive government action, but that can't happen ever again because I have poopy in my diaper because I'm mad at a guy online." Was Standard fucking Oil saying, "Regulate me, daddy" like Amodei, the CEO of the biggest and most important AI Godfirm in the world? Why did you think it was a good idea to start this shit again? lol If you compare these things and others you could easily find in this mass AI buildout to any other massive technological or industrial movement in the world, the AI externalities as they exist right now are a dog's fart in a fucking hurricane. it's actually impressive. Standard Oil/Union Oil Carnegie Steel DuPont Chemical Anaconda Copper (Butte-Anaconda is a fun one to read about) Do you know what "superfund sites" are? Heard of them? What happened to Newtown Creek? Where are the buffalo? what was the Lakeview gusher? why does water quality throughout Appalachia suck shit through a straw? and on and on and on and on In the US, right now... Musk's big datacenters in Memphis are pumping some nasty shit out. No one there is actually running out of water. There are reports of asthma increases. I know there's a lot more like that, but if you look at the actual scale of ecological destruction vs the technological progress and advancement it's not even really a conversation. Yes, AI has enabled some cops (fuck cops) to stalk ex-wives. Heard of the Pinkertons? It's a joke. Regulate the shit out of it, of course, Nationalize it. Regulate it. Fine and imprison those who violate the regulations. Even before that, though, it's relatively nothing. Not ACTUALLY nothing, but relatively. All economic activity has an externality. the ratio here is astounding

don't steal brisket's bit if people want to argue that America is now actually worse than China and so it would be Good, Actually, if the Western labs shut down/slowed down and let China run off with the most advanced capabilities that's fine, I'd simply ask them to have the spine to make the case. hell, even, argue that it doesn't matter because US and China are ethically/morally equivalent and their exchanging preeminence in the world is a total wash in terms of overall human good, fine. Just stand somewhere.

sidies, you argued that "what differentiates" them from the tech oligarchs is the tech oligarch belief that society is "an engineering problem". That is exactly what the robber barons saw society as. We have a 40-hour work week because of Ford. Literal eugenics. Read The Gospel of Wealth by Carnegie. Ford's sociological department monitored his own employees and their families, keeping files on their living habits. That industrial paternalism of that class extends far beyond what the tech oligarchs display. The tech oligarchs are not worse. If we are not allowed to say they're equal, I'd rather Amodei than Carnegie. And, as i've already said, not because the tech oligarchs today are better as individuals against the cultural grain, but specifically because society today is better and therefore its oligarchs are better as the tide of social improvement rises. The idea that they are worse is ahistorical and completely unsupportable. Even Amodei's writing calls on Carnegie's Gospel specifically, with Amodei theorizing a benevolent SuperAI's distribution of wealth over Carnegie's vision of the kindness of superior men like himself. And my god, the environmental concerns of the gilded aged gods vs the ai age gods... lol funny that you wanted to reignite this little spat while pretending you're above it I'm not. I love it. The externalities of the AI race, specifically, are basically nothing. I know TikTok has many convinced that the earth is falling apart ecologically because of AI datacenters, but that's complete horseshit and a joke, especially as we think about it in terms of basically every other technological advance in human history. Carnegie steel The massive financial scam surrounding it is entirely separate from the technology itself and something we absolutely should be using the power of government regulation to intervene upon and capture for the good. That externality is irrelevant. I don't give a shit about federal fiscal restraint. I don't have an illusion that we have some kind of more noble and responsible fiscal capitalism to get back to once all this craze dies over. wealth concentration was insane and getting more insane before Altman pressed "GO" on the first Tweet announcing the publicly available chatbot. The Earth was already on fire. The sacrifices are, basically, entirely imaginary at this point and the potential future problems are things we can, and should, guard against through coordinated political effort. you rightfully pointed out POLITICAL REFORMS and GOVERNMENT ACTION in response to gilded age crimes. Let's do that now. Act now. In the realm of discoveries like, say, cures/treatments for various cancers yes, we want to be the first if for no other reason than to have it as quickly as possible. I'm not convinced any nation would automatically and benevolently spread the best information they get, us included, so even at the most base level I want me and mine to have it. Luckily for me, I ALSO believe liberal democracy is the best thing going right now and I want the liberal democracies of the world to have the most advanced AI For security reasons, as well. Russia is in Ukraine. Would've been cool to have AI sufficient to disable their entire military as soon as Vlad decided to send tanks in and would be pretty bad if Russia's AI was sufficient to disable Ukrainian defenses or worse. Just one pretty obvious example. Not hard to imagine China having more advanced AI than us and shutting down Taiwan's manufacturing. I'd like superior AI to defend that. And on and on and on and it's not hard at all to envision any of it.

As I said to wild_turkey while you were whitewashing the history of the robber barons... There is no end state utopia, only and (sp) endless fight until we end up in the loving arms of the Savior. Of course it's a fucking forever war, you child I want the US to continue winning because I prefer liberal democracy to illiberal "democracy". If you don't see an advantage to the technological superiority of the West (US/Europe) over China then say so. Make a case There's not a "YOU WON THE COLD WAR" trophy America has in its trophy case. What it got, instead, was decades of tremendous economic prosperity and influence over the direction of the world. there will be no "YOU WON THE COMPUTER WAR" trophy on offer, either, just the choice between economic and sociopolitical dominance or subservience for the US/West for the foreseeable future presuming AI development leads to massive advancements in science of all kinds (medicine, health, engineering, space, etc...), I want those advancements to happen here and be available to us.