Viper

More evidence that Russia has a gps jammer in Königsberg

This probably the right decision if we want to stop the attacks but I think congressional approval is necessary

Sounds like we got a big name (who none of us have probably heard of) along with two IRGC guys

but did they? Are we sure he's not just repeating stories he's "been told" again? Like when he repeats 90 year old Italian UFO hoaxes as fact? also add another vote for the balloons explanation

It's been like this since the start of Israel's response (I have an early post in this thread with a poll) but these numbers show the Hamas support in Gaza shrinking. Edit: from November https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/32512-israel-hamas-war-thread/?do=findComment&comment=5733123

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines?wprov=sfla1

Wondering how accurate these subtitles are. His best bet is to surrender to Ukraine

Anton had some good analysis and summary of slow signs that the sanctions are having effect and the war is causing increasing tension in Russia Some more thoughts about the current situation in Russia and its future by expert Oleksii Kopytko: 1. A wave of accidents in the housing and utilities system in dozens of cities refreshed the topic of the real state of that sector (deterioration, and even the verge of collapse). The attempt of the authorities to shift the blame provoked petitions in their defense. Promises to make large-scale investments in the system renovation have been met with questions of whether the money is available. And is it worth investing in "new territories" at the expense of worn-out "old" ones? 2. The "incident" with a unique long-range reconnaissance airplane and flying command post. Despite the Kremlin's attempts to write it all off as a mistake by the Russian Air Defense Forces, Russia is worried that the Ukrainian army has once again gained capabilities it did not have before. This leads some Russian citizens to the conclusion that if the Ukrainians have seriously pinned down the fleet on the water, and now they have begun to harass aircraft in the skies above the Sea of Azov, then in the future the situation on land will become more complicated. First in Kherson region, then in Crimea.... 3. An accident at Lukoil's Nizhny Novgorod refinery (5% of Russian oil refining). The company halved gasoline production. They promise to fix it by March. Immediately a wave of comments was launched that gasoline prices would not rise, there were capacities to maneuver within the country and some exports would be closed. However, simultaneously, a cascade of other assessments followed: the oil refinery became the first major casualty of the sanctions. In December, the same refinery had a small fire at one of its systems, which was restarted at a lower capacity. Now there is a serious breakdown. All business publications have the same message — it will not be possible to replace the equipment with Chinese ones, it is not a solution to fix it by hand. And the prognosis is that this is the first sign, and it will get worse. 4. Mass protests in Bashkiria because of the trial of one of the local activists, Fail Alsynov. Allegedly, in one of his speeches in Bashkir language, he spoke negatively about the inhabitants of the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Armenians. For this, he received a four-year colony sentence for "stirring up inter-ethnic discord" (Alsynov claims that his words were mistranslated). It turns out that storming an airport with a crowd to settle scores with Jews in Dagestan is considered a local unpunished peculiarity, while protecting the environment of one's native land and speaking the native language in Bashkiria are seen differently. As a result, several thousand people (a figure of 5,000 is mentioned - [even up to 10,000 - AG]) protested in front of the court, ending in clashes with the police and the detention of several people. According to the "Information Resistance" group, Bashkortostan's publicly recorded losses during the attack on Ukraine are 30% higher than Tatarstan's. And the population is the same. This is the result of the unstoppable enthusiasm of local fuhrer Radiy Khabirov, who actively sends his fellow countrymen to their deaths. After the discontent with significant losses in Dagestan combined with the irritation of local residents due to regular blackouts, the government radically reduced sending of Dagestanis to the front. This is a bad example for other regions. And at the same time, it is a clue to people what they need to do. The authorities are afraid of protests because they don't have the forces to crush them. That is, their resources for mobilization are not as limitless as they convince everyone. 5. Gradual toughening of the rhetoric of the mobilized men's wives. They are publicly asking: convicts with multi-year sentences for serious crimes are dismissed after 6 months of service, while mobilized Russians are taken away indefinitely. Women's protests are the worst thing that can happen. So far they are very localized and do not pose a direct threat. What poses a threat is the trend. The Kremlin will need resources to extinguish it. Summary. It does not mean that the Russian Federation will collapse tomorrow or anything like that. It is an indicator that tension is growing inside Russia in various spheres. Disruptions and collapses will happen more often. Combined, this creates a bad backdrop for Putin's run in March. They don't have good news. The result will not be affected, but the atmosphere will worsen. That's why the Kremlin is so vehemently sending signals that Russia is incredibly strong, and Ukraine will fall apart tomorrow. They desperately need to maintain this myth, or else unrest will begin.

The IDF looks to be doing a lot exploration and destruction of the tunnel system in Gaza lately. I think I saw one stat that they're 50-70% bigger than the London Underground It seems like Hamas' strategy is to hide in the tunnels with the hostages and wait for the world community to force Israel to leave.

The Bradley smashing up the t90 video has been making the rounds

No no, you need ep 2 with the roller rink fight scene too. I think around episode 3 is where they cut the budget.

A law professor looks at the legality of the US retalitory strikes https://reason.com/volokh/2024/01/12/does-biden-need-congressional-authorization-for-his-strikes-against-the-houthis/ tldr;

Amazingly some of this Western support for the Houthis may not be authentic

Jason Scheer is totally not fetch

I think she had some lip injection but the rest just looked like she'd lost a little weight maybe and used some makeup contouring magic to change her look

No way they pay him in full if it wasn't made up by them

Would have been nice if we could wait to release until a DL coach is hired but I guess that's still a few weeks away and not worth the bad blood it would create.

I thought it started great, but it seems obvious they cut back on spending and episodes in the last half.

what the hell? I saw this and thought the 3 pictures were done to disprove the Russian claim, but it was actually Russia that posted the pictures that disprove their own claim in the same tweet?

Bobby said he expects the LOI release to be granted shortly.

seems like we're going with Iran's explanation that they were just trying to strike "Mossad" agents that helped plan the ISIS attack. Of course there were plenty of actual ISIS targets to attack but they just happened to choose to send missiles to a target in Erbil right near by the US. So to me it looks like Iran is being intentionally reckless to see how much they can push the line.

Caught Iran supplying the Houthis a few days ago USCENTCOM Seizes Iranian Advanced Conventional Weapons Bound for Houthis On 11 January 2024, while conducting a flag verification, U.S. CENTCOM Navy forces conducted a night-time seizure of a dhow conducting illegal transport of advanced lethal aid from Iran to resupply Houthi forces in Yemen as part of the Houthis’ ongoing campaign of attacks against international merchant shipping. U.S. Navy SEALs operating from USS LEWIS B PULLER (ESB 3), supported by helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), executed a complex boarding of the dhow near the coast of Somalia in international waters of the Arabian Sea, seizing Iranian-made ballistic missile and cruise missiles components. Seized items include propulsion, guidance, and warheads for Houthi medium range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), as well as air defense associated components. Initial analysis indicates these same weapons have been employed by the Houthis to threaten and attack innocent mariners on international merchant ships transiting in the Red Sea. This is the first seizure of lethal, Iranian-supplied advanced conventional weapons (ACW) to the Houthis since the beginning of Houthi attacks against merchant ships in November 2023. The interdiction also constitutes the first seizure of advanced Iranian-manufactured ballistic missile and cruise missile components by the U.S. Navy since November 2019. The direct or indirect supply, sale, or transfer of weapons to the Houthis in Yemen violates U.N. Security Resolution 2216 and international law. Two U.S. Navy SEALs previously reported as lost at sea were directly involved in this operation. “We are conducting an exhaustive search for our missing teammates,” said General Michael Erik Kurilla, USCENTCOM Commander. The dhow was deemed unsafe and sunk by U.S. Navy forces. Disposition of the 14 dhow crewmembers is being determined in accordance with international law. “It is clear that Iran continues shipment of advanced lethal aid to the Houthis. This is yet another example of how Iran actively sows instability throughout the region in direct violation of U.N Security Resolution 2216 and International law,” said General Michael Erik Kurilla, "We will continue to work with regional and international partners to expose and interdict these efforts, and ultimately to reestablish freedom of navigation.” centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RE…

actually now we're saying they didn't target us at all so no need to retaliate. Iraq (well the Kurds) also arrested an Iranian national and charged him with supplying Iran the information for the attacks.

Iran might have a lot less missiles and drones to ship to Russia in the near future. The IRGC just attacked a US consulate in Erbil