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GSU&UT

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by GSU&UT

  1. If South Carolina flips in the general election or even more districts because of Joe then awesome, the whole ballgame will be changed in electoral politics. I grew up right next to SC and live in Georgia, they don't have the kind of electorate that you saw which flipped suburban districts in Texas, Virginia, or North Carolina.
  2. My point is that it will take a perfect storm of chances to lose the House regardless of whoever is at the top of the ticket, winning the presidency is a whole other matter.
  3. I definitely went through that stage of grief last night, going to still work like hell for Bernie but I'll reluctantly vote for Joe if he gets the most delegates.
  4. We can argue fairly about Bernie's chances against Trump, but there is probably just as much of an equal chance (that is damn near zero percent) that we lose the House with Bernie or Biden at the ticket. You aren't going to see huge turnout for Biden either. Edit: B_T pointed this out too, Biden actively shit on the youth movement in this country. They aren't going to be enthused to vote for him no matter how much Trump is worse.
  5. God damn, there's a reason he hasn't done but a couple of rallies in Super Tuesday states thus far.
  6. Yep, going to be tough if she stays in past Super Tuesday.
  7. God damn I love Sam Seder, I think he's been friends with H. Jon Benjamin for a while now.
  8. It's a big deal because Bernie could get a huge lead or have only a very modest lead depending on how many candidates get above 15%.
  9. Cool, so basically you're just going with your gut feeling instead of looking at data (which correctly predicted a huge Biden win last night at 538). Just admit that https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
  10. Literally all the other major candidates, beside Bloomberg, in the last Morning Consult poll showed that their second choice was Bernie. Of course they all won't go to him, but you're wildly over inflating online drama.
  11. That is a lot of money, good lord.
  12. Let's not share Neera Tanden tweets, she has an absolute bias. There are lots more reputable people to look at for their thoughts on Biden's bump.
  13. As much as we've had disagreements, this is very true. A lot of early voting has already taken place for Super Tuesday and Biden was nowhere near the top of fundraising and he didn't visit any states until yesterday I think. He'll get a huge bump after this though and will probably be in it for the long haul.
  14. Yeah Biden is going to get a bump, boters are going to realign, and this is going to drag out for possibly the entire cycle.
  15. These two paragraphs are full of projection. You also are completely ignoring Nevada too which doesn't have a majority race, why is that? Nevada is also a swing state generally. I'm merely stating that people who live in states that almost certainly don't matter in the general election behave differently than those that do. I gave my own family as an example unfortunately. Not everything is as homogeneous across the country as you want to believe, voters in SC are different than voters in GA than voters in CA than voters in WI.
  16. Cool? Do i have control over everyone that is a Bernie supporter? Me and every Bernie supporter i know in real life is voting for the nominee regardless. It's freakung February still, we have a long way to go it appears. I think Biden gets smoked by Trump but I'll vote for his senile ass regardless.
  17. Thanks for stating the obvious, it's not as if i haven't tried to convince them.
  18. Literally my sister and her husband live in Columbia and do not show up to vote in the general because Democrats have no chance in hell in presidential years. This is a poll one state.
  19. You all realize that's in South Carolina, a state that is 100% going to go red in November right?
  20. No one in here has looked at any state polling. Biden winning by 15ish will be in line with polling the last week.
  21. Reminder that like every exit poll underestimated the the youth turnout. Bernie would have to be below 15% to not get any state-level delegates, it could happen but I don't think it's likely.
  22. Yeah Biden going to win by at least 10 points, probably 15. It will be interesting to see if Steyer is above 15%.
  23. I honestly think that's more old white Republican voters turning out, maybe not all necessarily trying to vote for Bernie for chaos, but doesn't really mean Pete is the one who gets an unexpected bump. Absentee ballots are generally only older voters, and I can't imagine there's a huge change in heart amongst the older white crowd in South Carolina (I grew up right next to the SC border and am fairly familiar with it) to no longer vote GOP .
  24. Yeah we'll know if it worked if a bunch of extra old whites vote and Biden has a small margin of victory.
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