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GSU&UT
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Everything posted by GSU&UT
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FYI Chuck Rocha is who you contact to help Latino Dem turnout in Texas. He is doing something with the Biden campaign, but he was with the Bernie campaign during the primary and is a BIG reason why Bernie crushed in Nevada and still won California during Super Tuesday.
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Alright fellas, getting drunk myself and celebrating my state somehow became this important to the country after I moved back home from Austin. I miss Texas every day honestly though. Hey Mitch,
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Exurbs of Atlanta starting to come in with very very little of super populated very Blue counties left to count. Hence the NYT needle still very much in favor of Ossoff and Warnock.
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Nate is basically making a projection here.
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Cherokee running behind is not good considering how much fanfare there was earlier about high turnout there where the GOP needed it.
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FYI there's still quite possibly tens of thousands of absentee ballots that got received today and haven't been processed.
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Just came to post this. You insult a black preacher in Georgia (completely taking his sermons out of context) you're going to pay the fucking price.
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Only keeping up with a thread on another board, but just going to drop this here. This is what I'm talking about when I kept repeating myself about the Black Belt and its importance. They showed the fuck up in early voting.
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Right, turnout was super high most everywhere in November and Biden squeaked by. Right now turnout was much lower in the counties Rs need to run up the score in, even if they have higher than November e-day numbers tonight that isn't going to help them unless the total number of ballots cast is closer to general election's total.
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Like I'm saying, if you're seeing record turnout in Dekalb (possibly Fulton, Clayton, etc.) where there was already good turnout during the EV period, you have to feel a lot better than you did on November 3rd.
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Let's just say, if you're Perdue or Loeffler you're sweating bullets right now especially after that released statement lol. It may be close, but it is not trending their way.
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This isn't a +5 state anymore. GA white rural turnout was JUICED for Trump this year and just enough Democratic voters turned out to finally flip it. This also bodes well to blunt any crazy turnout from the exurbs of Atlanta, Dekalb already had one of the highest turnouts of any county before today.
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I just spot checked a bunch of Dekalb precinct based off this map if they had reported around 4pm just now, https://dekalbgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=4135bd1868654e3b84aca982395712d8 And compared it to the XLS file you can download here, https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/DeKalb/105414/web.264614/#/detail/1?v=271880/ I only spot checked about 10 but every single one I found that updated around 4pm had more votes cast already than they had on election day for the general. Any surge in turnout today is not going to overwhelmingly benefit the GOP it looks like.
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I've been following Lakshya for a few weeks. He's not Nate Cohn but it's clear he knows his stuff. There's time for Spalding exurbs to have their more MAGA base show up but that number was cited in an 11Alive news report and not good at all for exurb/rural White Georgia especially if Dems are turning out in just as high of numbers as they did in November in Atlanta.
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If 900,000 wins it for Rs with them only needing 60% of that, then they literally have not looked at the early voting data. They would need to win probably closer to 70% of that.
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99% of the attack ads on Loffler and Perdue I saw on TV were about their insider trading combined with how wealthy they already are. Probably the easiest ads you could make that would resonate with the most amount of people.
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Well Sterling just posted this, so that's directly from the source.
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All anecdotal but good to hear. Fulton had one fewer in-person early voting day than most of the surrounding metro counties so if turnout is strong there then that should hopefully blunt any crazy surge in the NW or SE parts of the state.
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This ballot also didn't take two pages like it did for me last time because there's only three races we're voting in. I'm hoping that sped up processing time quite a bit.
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There's fewer mail-in ballots and counties were required to start processing them a couple of weeks out instead of that being a suggestion. There's likely going to still be a ton of mail-in ballots that need to be counted in the coming days by just looking at the numbers, but the rural counties that have fewer people voting by mail will get their results in faster. This is why I said I'd be looking at the margins, it should quickly tell us where things are going. If Perdue doesn't hit the same margins he did in Hall or Cherokee county then him and Loeffler are probably screwed.
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@Buzzrock you'll appreciate this
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Uh, GOP needs probably at least 1 million votes if not more based on the demographic shifts in the EV. Price's dipshit ass probably thinks no Dems are turning out but that is not the case, seems like several people I used to work with early voted in November and waited until today for the runoff. Just saw a huge Warnock sign being towed by a plane just ITP in Dekalb while I was driving. It will be hard to tell when the results roll in if they're only absentee, in-person, or a mix, but the conservative exurb counties like Forsyth, Cherokee, and Hall are what I'm going to be watching. It was pretty clear Trump was in trouble in Georgia when those margins were coming in early on.
