ND's Swarbrick came out of a recent ACC meeting and said something about their being 2 emerging poles, the SEC and B1G, and schools better gravitate towards one or the other. Now that could be a hardball negotiating strategy with tv bidders for ND's rights, or it could be telling.
One of ND's big concerns with the B1G, and one of the reasons it aligned with the ACC, is the lack of private schools in the B1G. So an expansion strategy of adding Stanford, Miami, TCU, and maybe even GT could alleviate some of that. ND may want enough added and the conference rules changed so that all the privates could block a vote. Everything I've read so far on the TCU possibility is that it only happens if ND joins.
The greatly reduced non-conf schedule and the Navy commitment could be somewhat mitigated with certain additions. TCU and Miami could be attractive in that ND could continue to play in those states relatively frequently. Texas has 8 million Catholics, and while I'm sure they'd rather play us, playing TCU in Texas every few years could be sufficient for their needs. Heck, might even be every other year if in a pod of Stanford, UCLA, USC, and OR/WA. And TCU would surely be willing to do home games with ND in Houston, San Antonio, and Jerry World if it gets them into the B1G.
Fox seems to be trying to get the B1G to go with a pro style expansion strategy of planting flags in new big states/markets. If there are only 2 top tier/broken away conferences, there's some additional benefit to making sure there's a franchise in the 2nd most populous state, that can be grown when the 6 state schools participating are reduced to 3. Hence why the argument of, "They're small, don't fully carry DFW, and thus aren't worth the $100 million to justify adding" may not apply. And TCU would likely take a very reduced share for years in exchange for the safety lifeline.
And we can add the probably a nonfactor argument that one of Swarbrick's kid went to TCU.
One possibility is going to 20 with ND, Stanford, OR/WA, and TCU, then waiting for ACC schools. Or maybe go to 24 soon if ACC schools try to bolt. Tug of war with the SEC for UNC, UVA, maybe even Clemson, FSU, or Miami. Miami doesn't add value to the SEC other than if they can lock the B1G out of Florida, or for the unlikely lure of ND. I'm guessing FSU/Clem/UNC/UVA ultimately choose the SEC (recruiting, travel, locational dominance), so we could see the B1G choosing 4 of Miami/VT/Duke/GT/WA. I do think Fox is pushing for a B1G endgame of 24 (maybe 28 max).