So Ross Dellinger/SI says he can't get any confirmation of Pac schools returning B12 expansion interest, but Joel Klatt said he thinks CU ends up in the B12. Tim Brando (I know, I know) says most of the knee jerk media is getting this wrong and that while schools may/probably break away from the NCAA when a new playoff contract is agreed to, it will probably be more than just the B1G and SEC (probably 60ish schools, so most of the ACC/B12/Pac school shouldn't panic now). On this I think Brando is correct on all counts. Too many schools left out if B1G-SEC separates with 40 to 44 schools, Congressional meddling attempts likely. Allowing 1 to 3 former P5 discount conferences to tag along gives them political cover, cannon fodder for non-conf, and $$$/NIL/new rules effectively will give the 2 giants enough advantage.
A conspiracy theorist might wonder if a Pac-ACC partnership (not merger) could be used by ESPN to raid the best of the B12. If ESPN gets the new Pac contract, that may be enough inventory for them that they low ball any new B12 contract. CBS to the B12's rescue? Maybe not, they've been ok so far having mid-majors be the core of their sports channel. Rolling the Pac channels into a single ACCPACNet should give Pac schools a $ boost, since that would finally get Pac coverage on many sat and cable outlets (not as import as in years past but still relevant). Should get the ACCNet higher fees now in west coast markets, and in Texas if some B12 schools get nabbed. The threshold for adding B12 schools to the Pac (or ACC, or Pac schools to the B12) is multiples lower than that needed to justify B1G or SEC expansion.
If I'm the B12, I'm nervous as hell. Based on past history all the P5 survive this round (if ND and ACC schools don't move to B1G/SEC) but it's more likely that ESPN (or maybe Fox) favors the Pac over the B12.
Pac with a shared ACCPacNet and a Pac-ACC title game likely goes to at least 12, probably 14. I'd guess OK St (brand and some DFW), TCU (still a brand and TX/DFW claims for ESPN), UH (TX/Hou claim, academic research is stronger than many realize), and maybe another TX school or Kansas (basketball but more academic, Stanford and Cal still heavily influencing decisions). Or ESPN could push a Pac desperate to survive to hold their nose and go with a BYU (better tv draw vs the rest of the B12 options) instead. Of course TCU and UH don't carry their local markets, but with the power of ESPN the smaller incremental factors of their addition may be enough to make it justifiable. Again, we aren't talking about B1G/SEC thresholds, but rather the Pac-ACC common law marriage (full merger could give ACC top schools an escape from GOR) as ESPN's discount/filler conference. Effectively killing or wounding the B12 as a future competitor increases the value of their current ACC investment and possible Pac add.
The worst case scenario for the B12 is if the ACC adds 2 and the Pac 6, to match the B1G and SEC at 16. Cincy has the academics and the current playoff potential for the ACC, and ESPN might push them for WV (not a big cable market, but still a secondary brand. WV diaspora along the east coast and southeast does matter some). In that scenario the Pac holds their nose and goes for survival by taking lower caste schools for $, perhaps even getting talked into Baylor (on field success in fb and bouncyball may be attractive to ESPN, as compared to some of the other B12 leftovers). OK St, 3 or 4 TX schools, and 1 or 2 BYU/KS/IA St? P16-ACC16 kills off the B12, 2026 playoff and NCAA breakaway maxes out at 65 schools.
Pac14 is probably the most likely of those 2 options, or the B12 might instead succeed in peeling off P12 schools, but the B12 is more at risk right now than some realize.