Magus Ossis

Per 247, 40th ranked class, .8569 average. What makes you think he can't win titles with guys like that?

One can argue about the point of models, but their general purpose is predictive. Again, are they more to approximate scores or identify which team will win? Many here likely feel that winning by 1, while less satisfying than by 21, is still winning. They likely take exception to the philosophy strongly implied by Herman's statement that "you only need to win by one," namely that shooting for marginal success is not an unnecessarily risky proposition. That said, the difference between winning by 1 and losing by 1 is much bigger than the difference between winning by 1 and winning by 11. People go crazy when a last-second FG lifts them from, say, down 24-25 to up 27-25. A lot of models don't much care. Going 6-6 with 6 comfortable wins and 6 razor-thin losses is not remotely as good an outcome as squeaking out an undefeated season. If those models seek to predict, e.g., whether Texas will play in (and perhaps win) important post-season games, then they were objectively failures in that regard last year. They appear on track to fail similarly this year. I don't think anyone here is arguing that Texas was as good as Clemson or Alabama last year (or now for that matter). Nor are people arguing that the models bear no relation to the system they seek to model and predict. Rather, especially with respect to SP+, the case has been made that (1) sound empirical scientific and statistical technique has not been used to develop the models, (2) this (or something) has resulted in some peculiar failings of the model-- of interest here because Texas is one of the teams whose winning it seems to predict least accurately, and (3) the author and advocate of the model has behaved in a manner to suggest that he both senses to a degree the need to improve his creation as well as that he refuses to concede publicly any of its deficiencies. To the contrary, he makes statements to suggest that the reality he tried to model was somehow failing to conform to his model rather than the converse. I think virtually all here would agree that to look like a title contender, Texas needs to stop losing to the Marylands of the world and to stop letting the Tulsas get back in the game; to suggest otherwise is to miss the point of the criticism leveled at BC and his SP+. Nota bene, however: more important than looking like a title contender is becoming one-- if Texas wins every game one the schedule by 1 point, they will be one. Who will bet me straight up on his predicted W/L total for Texas if I get the over? Any takers?

Buy a burnt orange polo, watch some YouTube clips about Freddie Steinmark and Sam Ehlinger, drink that vodka in your left and the gin in your right, and tune in to the Texas game when you come to on Saturday.

One more retard added to my ignore list

Teams that win a lot, score a lot, etc can reasonably be expected to continue winning and scoring, all things being equal, as @sushihorn noted that BC predicts. His “model” is just data mining. It isn’t evil or wrong. As stated, though, he defends it as if it embodies some truth with which we are out of synch. We are merely a team with significant contribution from factors he ignores in his formula. His formula gets a few things right, even about us. It down rates us because Hager couldn’t get to the passer and because he’s been replaced. It downrates us because Strong was the highest losing percent coach we’ve ever had. It fails to penalize us for Floyd’s condition. It is a simplistic model that gets enough right to embolden its author to bleat publicly in defiance of its failings. Against the spread, it is roughly as insightful as just betting home dogs. BC has a platform which he uses, among other things, to take shots at us. We have a platform pit from which we Surls take a few in return.

Since we beat Missouri like a drum, they have posted an 8-4 regular season record and lost to Okie Lite in the Liberty Bowl. If only we had recruited better, developed a star QB, and shown program progress since then, we might not be ranked behind them.

Looking at the SP+ preseason page at ESPN (I feel a little dirty for giving them the click), BC appears to include some marginal input in his formula: W/L from 5 years ago Freshman class recruit rankings While excluding a few data points that might be relevant: HFC/coordinator turnover 3rd year class recruiting ranking/retention Key offseason personnel losses to injury As a result, he has Texas, WSU, and Nebraska at 31, 34, and 39, while clustering Auburn, Mississippi St, and aggy in the 8-11 range. I am not a gambling man in general, but would happily bet that he has this wrong. I’ll pay 5 to 1 that at least one of those lower-ranked teams finishes above at least one of his list of higher-ranked ones, despite the gulf of 20 spots between the clusters.

But you’re forgetting that the “highly scientific and reliable” model that got Texas wrong last year doesn’t think we’re very good this year. With all the S&P+ SP+ tweets coming out over the last month, you’d think that middle school math project magically took the remaining stink out of SEC and ESPN shit.

[satya 1/5/06] I hope the ncaa refs don’t take the “VY knee down TD” off the scoreboard from last night’s game and retroactively award the championship to USC [/satya 1/5/06] Finish will be 13+ games, barring losing 7 or more of the first 12. “Finish” had not been clarified to mean pre-bowl before CTJ opined. Sheesh. We’ve gone full surly. Never go full surly.

Not that either was kicked out, but look at the McCoy brothers for a great Case study in how parenting is only one factor in how young men comport themselves.

They were thinking green, but turns out they don’t have enough to make it work.

I started to like this, but your apology comes off a little like you're less sorry that you came down on CS than you are that it was upsetting. She may be crazy-- I don't care. She might be better off keeping this under her hat-- irrelevant. She is an abuse victim, proven so, and is coping. People in her position need some slack, a lot of support, and the benefit of the doubt. She isn't slinging unsupported accusations; she is giving up electronic records.

You would certainly increase the market for SAT score influencers

Like they said-- just need a QB

tOSU and Pedo State aren't two schools I find myself wanting to join. We just got free of our own aggy not long ago.

Maybe Herman is trying to name a starter who is allowed by NCAA to start. edit: Katfid beat me to it

Herman answered to the effect that he likes starting with a G5 as a warmup and then playing a marquee game.

The first notice they gave of the date is less than 2 months out? No save the date notice? They shouldn’t be surprised or upset that people have lives. Politely decline and send them salt shakers or whatever your means allow off their registry.

True. A lot of us (MO included) are generally pro-Herman, but still anti: Casey Horny hiring Underperforming assistant retention Q4 turtling It may turn out that he has good reasons for what makes us crazy, but we don’t accept it as granted.

I feel like we should be accumulating some kind of Chevigny Steinmark Brown Papa Ehlinger win one for El Ced mojo for this season.

This is a forum for anonymous (mostly) adults to spend hours reading and arguing about games played by strangers on account of an affiliation with one of the many schools we’ve attended in our lives. Looking for truly objective and logical bases for what we post would seem an exercise in futility. With that as the background, his arguably hypocritical (hello, Coach UM), cowardly (shout down the sips from CS), and inaccurate (nothing could be more purifying than cleaning our athletic, mainly football, leadership out at that time) statement, make him an obvious candidate for mockery and grudges.

This is the answer. For those who don’t want to lie, cheat, or steal (versus aggy who loves unfulfilled lip service to the concept) but wish to stream the ‘Horns, PS Vue is the answer. Double check what they offer you, but the core package should be $55/month, free for 5 day trial. It should have both LHN (LaTech) and CBS Sports net (Rice). Cut your cable and use ps vue instead for the fall. If you can’t afford $55/month from late August through early January, you may not be cut out to be a Surl whale.

Hate to say it but he may be headed xfl

As much as we may not want to admit it, he has a point. Sumlin barely averaged 8 wins (not counting bowls), and only won his first 3 bowls. By comparison, Jimbo won 8 games plus a bowl his first year.

Other than the possible exception of the bolded text, I don’t think one could find a dime’s worth of difference between our opinions.