Magus Ossis

AggySlap?

Since 2010, had aggy sports supported their institution the way Texas has (to say nothing of the money actually siphoned off into athletics), they would have more than the $55 million they are requesting. Over that span, Bevo has given over $70 million back to the 40 acres. #BigBrother

It is only a matter of time until DFigs launches a barrage of false-flag twitter hate, pretending to be a Horn. edit Instead of a Tea-sip, would that make him a T'ain't?

Looks like a loaded junior day. Here's hoping Herman gets these guys planning return trips for the spring game while they are still here-- the aggy leans won't, but others may. With the biggest two competitors for recruiting Texas talent playing their spring games the same day, we have a chance to use it as a wedge.

Herman is not messing around with OL roster management. I like how many irons he throws in the fire.

Sycophant. Couldn't pass up the chance to use sic for the spelling of syc. Am I a Syco?

I put him in this bucket.

They have Mordecai and Rattler. Riley will likely be fearless in running Hurts against us, with their schedule otherwise quite winnable; he is a one-year rental, and they have a 5* sitting behind the #11 "dual" QB from the class of 2017.

If not, the transfer portal is likely their next possible help. They have Mond, Foster, and Bairds-- and that includes the roster and signed recruits. Good chance Foster gets some snaps in 2019, so we may see.

What percent of local or state LEOs in the field have 4-year degrees? I ask because that is what I (erroneously?) understood to be his line of work. I appreciate their service but thought most of the guys with more education wound up in more specialized roles or up in the command structure.

I don't think anything regarding a cause will ever be publicized. There is always a chance some previously undiagnosed condition like sickle cell will turn out to be the culprit. edit in answer to your question, good chance the treating physicians have no idea.

Sorry. I’ll just block him.

It sounds to me, and correct me please where I have missed or misinterpreted your reply, as though you grudgingly admit you think S&P+ is too low in its 2019 win projection and offer no rebuttal to anything else I argue in the other rhetorical questions. And yet you sarcastically put down Texas fans’ rationality. I suppose we are irrational for agreeing with Vegas and virtually every major college football expert that Texas is likely to be at or near the top of the Big12 next year.

How much would you bet on the under for Texas wins next year if we set the O/U at 7.5? Because S&P+ says we are most likely to win only 7. Or do you think we “defy math” when we win? Or that we objectively look like we shouldn’t even be in the 6 or 7 teams outside the polls “also receiving votes” to start next year? Or that our wins, as opposed to the ones he expected, were more characterized by luck last year? Connelly, as your second quotation from him in this post of yours shows, still doesn’t truly acknowledge that his model is missing something. With one breath he will say one modest thing about his model and with the next he will ascribe all its failings to “luck.”

If OL don’t really come into their own until year 3, our timeline for Herman’s non-transition recruits to be ready would be something like: 2020 Angilau, Ghirmai, Jones, Moore (plus Cosmi, Kerstetter, Okafor, ?Urquidez) = Hopefully 7 developed guys 2021 Johnson, Hookfin, Shepherd (plus 2020 guys, plus Cosmi) = maybe upwards of 8 developed guys 2022 Parr, Majors, ?Lindberg, ?Garth, ?OLTBNL (plus 2020/2021 guys) = maybe upwards of 12 developed guys Even assuming a high hit rate, we look like going after grad transfers may be a good idea even as late as 2021 to make sure we have quality depth. One year rentals are great in that they don’t clog depth charts or scholarship charts but often plug holes nicely.

Tate lawyer to tOSU: tell NCAA to grant my transfer, and tell them it is for my health, but there are sensitive issues involved. tOSU: ¿Mande? Lawyer: What happens in Zach Smith tOSU practices stays in Zach Smith tOSU practices, amirite? tOSU to NCAA: let him play. Seriously.

Richmond is a poor man’s Anderson.

AZ would be fools to draft him. Part of what Kliff is supposed to deliver is identifying/developing QBs. If you have to spend a high 1st round pick on a QB, you are admitting Kliff isn’t all that.

We criticize Connelly and his S&P+ because he makes statements implying it is more than it is. He acts defensive when it is publicly noted to have an area of weakness rather than acknowledge failings. Huck doesn’t spout off making excuses for his adjusted stats when they fail to model everything about future contests. It isn’t complicated— the stronger claims one makes, the more strongly he should expect them reviewed.

105 limit in off-season. No limit during season.

Yeah. Tough break, but he did have some part in it. You feel for a guy who is going to have to play out his eligibility behind bars or for OU, though.

MENSA gets a lot of play. MENSA will take anyone who scores in the top 2%ile on a recognized test. The UT student population is largely top 7% of top 90% of their original school class (top 6.3). 75th percentile SAT at UT is 1410, and 98th nationally (MENSA level) is ~1480. So chances are that most of us Surly idoits had MENSA-level classmates in pretty much every course we took (not counting our own 15% or whatever MENSA). Of course, Surly may be biased in favor of the far-below-7% outliers.

Yeah 5th in coaches, tied for 5th in AP. Not in top 4.

His system necessarily uses proxies because of the components he incorporates. Blake Gideon was a starter on our defense, and in a hypothetical universe in which he was replaced by Sterns, the S&P+ would have punished us for it. It would also have rewarded us for recruiting Gilbert, and for returning him to the line-up (versus penalty had we picked up a stud grad transfer). Generally speaking, returning production is a proxy for producing needed yards/points (offense) or stops (defense) in the future. He chooses proxies which have shown positive correlation in pooled data, and they likely show correlation because of some true connection. When proxies do not align as well with the true values as one would desire, the answer is not to criticize the truth for failing to follow the model. There are teams that tend to underperform S&P+ predictions in various ways, teams that cluster nicely in the hump of the curve, and teams that tend to over perform it. Texas will win 2+ (4 would be unsurprising, frankly) more games than predicted next year, and Connelly will call it a fluke or luck. Eventually, as the young talent at Texas becomes mature talent, our on-field results will result in a higher S&P+ and hence smaller delta between predicted and final outcomes. Connelly will then note that even the "Herman luck" ran out, never admitting that his model rather finally caught up closer to reality.

EDIT: I meant to quote my own question about accuracy ATS. The answer I found was NFL, not NCAA, but the home dog coverage rate was 51.7% Cover.com So the S&P+ can achieve win percentage predictions similar to always picking the favorite and similar results ATS as always picking home dogs. Based on accuracy of this magnitude, he attributes to “luck” what his model gets wrong. Clearly his model does somewhat correlate to real life and therefore has some predictive power. He far overestimates the science in what he does, however.