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Magus Ossis

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Everything posted by Magus Ossis

  1. Yeah. Tough break, but he did have some part in it. You feel for a guy who is going to have to play out his eligibility behind bars or for OU, though.
  2. MENSA gets a lot of play. MENSA will take anyone who scores in the top 2%ile on a recognized test. The UT student population is largely top 7% of top 90% of their original school class (top 6.3). 75th percentile SAT at UT is 1410, and 98th nationally (MENSA level) is ~1480. So chances are that most of us Surly idoits had MENSA-level classmates in pretty much every course we took (not counting our own 15% or whatever MENSA). Of course, Surly may be biased in favor of the far-below-7% outliers.
  3. Yeah 5th in coaches, tied for 5th in AP. Not in top 4.
  4. His system necessarily uses proxies because of the components he incorporates. Blake Gideon was a starter on our defense, and in a hypothetical universe in which he was replaced by Sterns, the S&P+ would have punished us for it. It would also have rewarded us for recruiting Gilbert, and for returning him to the line-up (versus penalty had we picked up a stud grad transfer). Generally speaking, returning production is a proxy for producing needed yards/points (offense) or stops (defense) in the future. He chooses proxies which have shown positive correlation in pooled data, and they likely show correlation because of some true connection. When proxies do not align as well with the true values as one would desire, the answer is not to criticize the truth for failing to follow the model. There are teams that tend to underperform S&P+ predictions in various ways, teams that cluster nicely in the hump of the curve, and teams that tend to over perform it. Texas will win 2+ (4 would be unsurprising, frankly) more games than predicted next year, and Connelly will call it a fluke or luck. Eventually, as the young talent at Texas becomes mature talent, our on-field results will result in a higher S&P+ and hence smaller delta between predicted and final outcomes. Connelly will then note that even the "Herman luck" ran out, never admitting that his model rather finally caught up closer to reality.
  5. EDIT: I meant to quote my own question about accuracy ATS. The answer I found was NFL, not NCAA, but the home dog coverage rate was 51.7% Cover.com So the S&P+ can achieve win percentage predictions similar to always picking the favorite and similar results ATS as always picking home dogs. Based on accuracy of this magnitude, he attributes to “luck” what his model gets wrong. Clearly his model does somewhat correlate to real life and therefore has some predictive power. He far overestimates the science in what he does, however.
  6. I didn't see numbers out there for college football, but for the NFL, the favorite wins over 68% of the time. With the greater disparity in talent among college teams (v pro), one would expect a higher fraction of games that are easier to predict. If I wanted a model to tell me with circa 70% accuracy who would win, I could just use the line. The devil is in reliably predicting wins significantly better than the line does. Connelly gets right that he needs to dig deeper than final score. He gets a great deal wrong after that.
  7. He is, as has been stated, not so much modeling in the sense that an expert in a field should be, but rather data mining and "piling on." He asks the question, "what happened last time in 25 words or less?" He then uses aggregate data to get a quick answer to the oversimplified question. He stacks a lot of similar answers together and calls it a model. He then uses it, not to predict what overall winning teams will look like in the future, but rather who will win which games by how much. You could easily make a model yourself with similar accuracy. Use things like internet hits for "coach on hot seat," previous year preseason and final poll rankings, record straight-up and ATS, 4-year running weighted 247 recruiting average, and coach's shoe size. Your model will predict the winner of more games than it will miss, because you have included things that are at least related to how often a given team wins as part of the model. They are by no means causative, but if you judge your model on whether it has some correlation to reality, you don't have to be too picky about being rigorous. The SAT has been shown in the past to correlate better to the income of the subject's parents than to subsequent grades in college. But only a nut or publicity hound would try to track incomes by giving subjects' kids the SAT. Connelly needs some friends who understand statistics and to whom he will actually listen.
  8. It would be interesting to see how S&P+ does against the spread versus some other complex model. I suggest merely picking home underdogs to cover and seeing whether it approximates or surpasses any of his season results.
  9. If Connelly has not understood or modeled something, it is "luck." The sheer audacity/ stupidity of this worldview is astounding. I am not a betting man, but taking the over on his estimation of Texas wins in 2019 seems as close to free money as exists. Doctor Connelly: I gave him penicillin and plenty of intravenous hydration. Just bad luck that he died. Narrator: He had NSC lung cancer that was never resected.
  10. It seems that way. For some reason, I have hope that they will hit most of their astronomical goals.
  11. Unrestricted transfers but choose between no scholarship or no participation (your first year only, in either case) in the new school unless you completed a degree at the old one (or met one of some set of other pre-established criteria). If someone really wants to transfer, fine-- he is free. If he really wants to play, fine-- he is free. If he wants to commit to one school to play based on getting a free ride and then get a free ride elsewhere, he will have to make an opportunity cost decision. Is it more important for him to get a free college education, to play football, to be where he now wants to be, to avoid the need to complete his degree? Rich kids would be less restricted by this plan but only to the degree that people who can afford college tuition are freer in where they attend in general. And the lawyers they get under the current system pretty much sets different rules for the rich guys anyway.
  12. Signing you wasn't the right thing to do. How can we outspend the SEC? If we could, we would give you the league. How can we, when you leave for LSU? You can "pay your own way." Pay your own way You can call it all just fair play You can "pay your own way" Pay your own way
  13. Yeah. Getting locked up might save his life or the life of someone into whose living room he might have otherwise crashed.
  14. Nice work. As you do more of these, please self-scout (or ask for input) regarding continued quality and originality. I only mention it because the great edit you did for Ringo was Joker-themed, too.
  15. It looked like he had a grade I AC separation and then another before he was over the first completely.
  16. Jimbo is not going to tear through a quality SEC, but as has been pointed out repeatedly, a strong SEC top-to-bottom is largely a myth. If Bama struggles with the transition from Saban to its next emperor, there could be a chaotic interregnum similar to 97 and 98. Back when OU, UGA, UF, Nebraska, LSU and Bama played a collective 1 CCG— and we all know *roll left* how that turned out for the Husker dynasty.
  17. I agree that he is no one to fear, but we have to accept that the data suggest that Jimbo is generally a successful coach. His national championship was in his fourth year— pretty much his guys in his system at that point. His win totals, all comers, are 10, 9, 12, 14, 13, 10, 10, 5, 9. His first season (10 wins) followed a 7 win campaign. His last one was at a new school so again he could be compared. He won the same number of games, but improved the mean scoring differential from 1.3 to 7.2, won his (lower tier) bowl in a blowout, and improved the final ranking from NR to 16. He followed that up with aggy’s statistically best recruiting the era of online rankings, grabbing Leal and Wright along the way. Looking at all of that data, the 5-win season looks like a bit of an outlier. Tucked against a 13 and a 12, the 14 looks less like one. For a number of reasons, I think we under Herman will fare much better than aggy under Jimbo. I don’t happen to believe, however, that one of those reasons is, “Jimbo hasn’t accomplished squat without Jameis.” Given that FSU continued to get worse after he left, I think a reasonable summary is that he has the ability to succeed, but that catastrophic program rot after circa 5 years is not unforeseeable.
  18. If it was before a game I would have said steroids. After the season I think something more experimental like PRP or stem cells is a significant possibility.
  19. He’s no Saban, but he averaged 11 wins in his 7 complete FSU seasons before cratering in 2017.
  20. Dude, boss, your pasty white skin is showing over your inappropriately light socks.
  21. From the FDA website: Safety comes up at multiple levels of testing, but is a big deal at phase 3. Phase 4 is the final confirming dose/safety phase. Phase 3 looks in particular for rarer or late-developing adverse effects.
  22. I’m not sure if he was a long-game troll, his pw was compromised, or he has a substance abuse problem.
  23. You may be in a world of hurt if that guy exists. If not, from the firm.
  24. I think it is some football-scholarship-offer-themed invitation to something, probably Valentine-related, from his gf.
  25. Phase 3 is the late stage of testing to get FDA approval. It is where the appropriate dose is determined and safety is assessed. If there is not a dose found to be reliably both safe and efficacious, the drug is not approved. They do this by actually it to people.
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