For today's installment of "Texas fans are irrationally exuberant," we will compare and contrast Texas' deficiencies with the strengths of a team with a higher initial S&P+ rating for 2019, the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Texas: embarrassing early September loss to Maryland, 29-34 Minnesota: embarrassing late September loss to Maryland, 13-42
Texas: racked up 4 losses over the season, including only one over its last 5 games, to #5 OU (71% wins on season) Minnesota: 6 total losses, 2 in last 5 games, both to unranked teams (54% wins on season)
Texas: won Sugar Bowl over #5 UGA, holding them to 72 yards rushing (30% of average) Minnesota: beat unranked GT in Quick Lane Bowl, limited GT to 206 rushing (63% of average)
Texas: 5 wins over currently ranked teams Minnesota: winless against ranked opponents
Texas: trending up, improved 5 wins in 2018 over previous regime in 2016 Minnesota: trending? still 2 wins in 2018 worse than previous regime in 2016
Texas: turns over much of defense, leaving only 7 returning defensive players who were rated over .95 composite Minnesota: loses both DTs but returns one defending player who was at least .89
In short, Texas did not do well enough, is not trending favorably enough, and looks exposed on defense compared to the higher-rated Gophers. Hopefully, this breakdown will help you Longhorn homers stop complaining that S&P+ is flawed or somehow has the 'Horns underrated at #35.