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Aqua Buddha

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Posts posted by Aqua Buddha

  1. 14 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

    Pick any random Saturday in Fredericksburg if you want to see a full blown parade. 

     

    8 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

    Fredericksburg is so weird.  The residents are typically very friendly, the town is charming, it's the rare small town in a rural area that's thriving in the 21st century, plus tons and tons of outside investment and high-earning immigration. 

    It's like all that is cover for the Klan. 

    Over on the travel forum, I have a thread about where to retire and Fredericksburg should be high on the list but not even on it and for that reason.  Bat shit local politics under the surface and then the bat shit state politics.  (The weather is another problem.)

    But yeah, great town on the surface but kinda weird when you start really looking.

  2. 17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Sure. For now. But that's not really what we were talking about, we were talking about people with the means to retire in 10-15 years after a ton of Boomers die. 

    I won't lie, Tenn would be high on my list of places to retire, except for its fucking politics. I'll be eyeballing that shit for the next 10 years. 

    I had Nashville on my short list of places to retire.  (I had a thread about it in on the travel board.)  Lots of positives but the main negatives were state politics.  While Nashville proper is fine, the suburbs are becoming the capital of MAGAstan and Nashville isn't big enough to balance out the state like Atlanta or Phoenix.  

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  3. 26 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Well, if you have a million dollar's in equity, where would you buy to retire? Certainly not hot AF Texas? Not when you're not moving here for work and cheap housing. To that end, sure I see some of the SEC states like TN, NC, GA, and maybe even WVU, which I've discussed before, being attractive options. But I still think so would the blue wall states, the Pacific NW, etc. That's why I raise my eyebrow at that whole chart. 

    Yeah, those middle climate states, particularly NC, TN, and GA.  TX will still see in influx due to people moving for jobs but FL has no real economy to speak of.  

  4. 5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Old people's finances aren't what they used to be, dude. The late 40's and 50 year olds looking to retire in 10 years aren't going to be in the same financial position as the olds who've been in florida for 20-30 years now, imo. And the ones with the money likely will be NY types, so probably Democrats. Which was the case before Trump Brain infected this sect of boomers. Anyway, it's one thing to be a frog in boiling water the last 10 years as FL insurance has gone apeshit, but it's another to look at your finances and say "Yes, I can afford 4k a month in expesnes that aren't a mortgage or rent in retirement." 

     

    I think you're underrating the sheer number of people who own homes in high cost areas who are going to retire in the next 10-15 years.  They might be upper middle class types but they'll have +$1M in home equity and they're moving somewhere.  You are right about Florida, though.  The whole premise of retiring there was that it was cheap to buy but that's not cheap and then you add in the insurance and/or POA dues you're seeing.

    I'm down on FL's immediate future, actually.

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  5. 12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

     

    I'm not sure I buy this as an obvious death knell. I don't think it's accounting for people fleeing Texas because of climate change, and Texas does continue to creep right as the olds die. Sure, folks are coming in, but a fuck ton of youngs are leaving and not returning. That should also create more housing for those fleeing blue wall states. But overall, shit doens't feel right. Old people are going to die in Florida, and we expect younger people are going to say "Yes, I need to move to the state that has 3 major hurricanes a year and insurance costs are insane."

    The olds will keep moving to FL because it's ingrained into their brains to do that.  Although, three hurricanes per year and $2K per month just in home insurance might change that.  Keep in mind those olds move from the NE and Midwest and lean heavily Republican, which just makes those areas more Democratic.  

    I do think there will be long term migration patterns out of states that are blast furnaces.  

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  6. 2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    I missed this from last week -

    The Uncommitted Movement is not going to endorse Harris over her Israel stance, said do not vote for Trump because he will make it worse and do not vote third-party because you'll be helping Trump.

    So they're just going to not show up at all or vote for Harris in secret I guess.

    So, make it possible for the candidate who will deport them all to Palestine and give Bibi the green light to level the place the week after?

    That's a great idea.

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  7. 12 hours ago, Skipper said:

    But this is the problem with that strategy.  This OU fanbase is so used to winning they will have absolutely zero patience for a methodical rebuild.  When they don't win the SEC this year, it will be the longest stretch without a conference title since they broke the drought between 1987 and 2000.  Their schedule is brutal but if they go something like 6-6 Venables is going to be under a ton of heat to win next year.  Is a Hawkins that is running for his life/getting beat up every week going to somehow be ready to take a huge step forward in a must win year under very likely a new coordinator?   Or is it more likely Venables feels he has to make moves to win 9 or 10 games in 2025 and blow his NIL fund to bring in a veteran (and then what do you do if you are Hawkins and does OU have the NIL budget to pay a top QB and fill out their roster).  There flat out isn't a good scenario available to Venables right now outside of Hawkins somehow making the staff and the fanbase confident that he is going to be much improved as a Soph and elite by (OU standards) his Junior year.  So good luck with all of that Brent.

    While all that is true, the OU fan base is surprisingly fair and realistic.  They're going to expect to win the SEC most years like they did the Big 12.  They know it's more difficult and are fine with that.  What they are not fine with right now is that in Year 3, BV's somehow has the worst offense they've ever seen.  It doesn't need to be great but at least put something on the field that's not embarrassing.  You're right about next year, though. 

    • Haha 1
  8. 1 hour ago, Gravy Train said:

    Thing is, Venables had gametime analysis on Arnold in the Alamo Bowl, where JA posted a QBR of 58.6, with 2 TDs and 3 INTs to Arizona.  That he never turned the corner through practices or spring ball is telling.

    Also on that game, they had a patchwork OL and a brand new QB but were getting like 7 ypc on that ground.  So, what does the OC dial up.  Pass play after pass play for 3 INT's.  

    The offensive staff is stunningly bad and if BV wants to stay HC, he's going to need to stop with Friends & Family at that spot.

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  9. 5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    I just looked at AZ 2020 and they have a crazy right wing county up near Las Vegas that completely undoes-and-then-some the Maricopa county D advantage.  So it ends up being Tucson/Pima versus the rest of the state.

    You're right.  I thought Phoenix had a bigger total vote advantage.  They had 2M votes in 2020 with a population of almost 5M.  Jeez.

    I do know they've had a ton of move ins since 2020 with most of them being somewhat left leaning so there's that.

  10. 36 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

    I had dinner over the weekend with my previously referenced "source close to the campaign," and a few nuggets are worth sharing here:

    Arizona: They're very confident about Arizona.  I mean, they're so confident about Arizona that I was somewhat shocked.  I mean, I feel good about Arizona.  But what I heard was "we're going to win Arizona by 1-2 points."

    Georgia: They're maybe a little less confident about Georgia.  But that was couched in terms of "we really like where we stand right now."  

    Michigan: We're fine.

    Nevada: They're unequivocal on Nevada: "we're going to win Nevada by 2-2.5 points."

    North Carolina: This one is really harder to tell, because they don't have any information from after the whole Mark Robinson flame-out.  It's pretty clear to them that the likes of Kari Lake and Mark Robinson are a bit of a drag on Trump.  And they're really trying to target people who have decided they're not going to vote for Lake/Robinson but who are still planning to vote for Trump.  Who are those people?  I don't exactly know, but it's obviously a focus of the Harris campaign's data people.

    Texas: I think the term "extreme skepticism" is the only way to describe their feelings with respect to Texas.  My friend conceded that there are some numbers that look good-ish for Allred.  But damn--we've all been through this drill before.  There's just an extreme unwillingness to divert resources at any level to Texas, no matter what any poll is currently saying.

    Pennsylvania: I take this one out of alphabetical order because that's where the game is.  My friend gamely tried to obfuscate on the point, but quickly conceded that Pennsylvania is the tipping-point state.  And they're feeling ok about Pennsylvania, but they have a big problem with Black men.  How big a problem I can't exactly say.  But it's causing some serious concern.  

    I asked about whence the problem derives, and he said two things: 1) Kamala's perceived record as a prosecutor (and alleged prosecutions of small-time marijuana offenses) and 2) misogyny (and particularly as against a Black woman).  On the upside, the campaign has identified the issue and is doing a whole lot to address it.  That State Commonwealth is being absolutely blanketed with campaign surrogates talking directly to that community to shore up those numbers.

    And I'm going to observe here--and this was my observation, and not my friend's (though it was an observation with which he agreed)--that this is where the Harris campaign's superiority in resources shows.  They have something like twice as many field offices as the Trump campaign and RNC have.  We spent a good deal of time just laughing at how Lara Trump is siphoning off money from the RNC and killing their organizing and down-ballot support.  So the Trump campaign isn't really able to go out and play offense and try to exploit the problems Harris is having with that (or any other) demographic.  So from that standpoint, it's kind of the opposite of 2016.

    On Arizona, FWIW, we jus spent a week in Scottsdale/Sedona and Dem ads and signs outnumbered R's at least 5 to 1.  Harris and Gallego were everywhere with some very well done ads.  Very little Trump/Lake presence.  

    I still think she wins PA but if she wins everything else on that list, she can lose PA and NC and still win, assuming she wins GA.

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  11. 8 minutes ago, texifornia said:

    Heupel looks terrible. That dude isn't living healthy. Literally unbelievable he used to be a great athlete.

    If you were to see him in public and tell someone you knew who had no idea about anything college football that Heupel was the starting QB on a national title team, no one would believe you.

    Bosworth is 59.  Venables is 53.  Heupel is 46.  Which one looks the oldest?

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  12. 1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

    If he does it regularly, I got no problem with it.

    If he did it for the cameras, he's a fraud and deserves a Jimbo extension asap.

    He's a fitness psychotic so he prolly does it regularly.  Heupel, quite frankly, should do it more.  He's 53 and Heupel is 46 but you'd never guess it by looking at either one of them.

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  13. 5 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

    The Arnold era is over before it even got started

    Yeah, they cleared the deck for him, too.  He'll hit the portal in the offseason and so will they.  The Florida QB is a prime target.

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