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GabrielsHorn

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Everything posted by GabrielsHorn

  1. Can you point in my original post where I said that Texas should just open everything back up and that's fine? No? It's because my entire point is that it's not just the third world that is trying to figure out the balance between what and when should restrictions be lifted.
  2. I'm not discounting how much testing has or hasn't been done, just pointing out that other countries in more developed parts of the world are beginning to loosen restrictions. It's not just "Ethiopia and Afghanistan" that are making these changes.
  3. Really good article that puts into perspective how overwhelming it is working on the front lines in NYC.
  4. Not going to try to CR it up, but Texas wouldn't be the only place in the more developed part of the world that is looking to reopen things incrementally over the next few weeks. Spain, Norway, Austria, Denmark, and the Czech Republic have all announced some changes or loosening of restrictions for the upcoming weeks. While I agree that this week is more than likely early, it all depends on what restrictions are being lifted and what is the response to if/when another outbreak occurs which that article doesn't really touch on sans the testing at Walgreens.
  5. We will definitely be in a new normal until the Vaccine is made. How could you go to a sports event during this when it takes one person coughing to infect a ton of people? That being said, higher testing and antibody testing, wearing masks, maintaining social distancing with the most at risk groups, banning large gatherings, and somewhat developing herd immunity with more people that had it will help. These measures weren’t put in to eradicate the virus but to give us enough time to build up our strategy and to not overwhelm our hospital system during the first wave where we are at our most vulnerable.
  6. I don’t know if it really was though. If this virus is as infectious as experts warn, you’d expect that we would have seen hospitals struggling much, much earlier than what we currently are seeing in December and January, particularly with how much travel occurs for the holidays. Still is a research project that is well worth finding.
  7. I guess that makes sense, especially with the racial breakdown from Chicago today also indicating it affects African American communities harder. Still, seems like Detroit is taking it harder than somewhere like Chicago.
  8. Jesus, what’s making this so bad in Detroit/Michigan? Seems like NYC and New Orleans both make some sense from a density and public events stand point, but it’s unclear why it’s so bad there.
  9. FWIW, Austria outlined a plan for how they are going to reopen the country today. Think that is probably a bit optimistic by saying soccer matches will resume later in the summer, but the rest generally makes sense.
  10. Hey, that’s my local affiliate in Denver! Seems like they just really botched making the y-axis logarithmic. They’ve been great at not downplaying the pandemic too. At the beginning of the outbreak in Colorado, the main anchor self quarantines for two weeks and did the news from their house as they flew back from Europe after a story. They’ve also done a ton of social distancing and advocating self quarantining for their employees with most people doing the weather, sports, news from their home. Think the guy saw Fox and thought they were bullshitting, but they really haven’t been.
  11. It’s definitely the best model imo. They’ve done a good job of updating it constantly with data, and the bounds seems pretty reasonable. Will be interesting to see how do we fair after restrictions are lifted on May 30 based on that model as I feel like it doesn’t really capture results beyond that.
  12. With that and Japan's rising case numbers, we may be seeing round 2 in East Asia.
  13. Reuters has been taking pictures of popular public places at high noon, and it’s pretty surreal to see.
  14. It’s better to cut it short than extend it at the last moment imo. As of now, I don’t see how the major cities won’t all be quarantined until at the very least the end of May.
  15. Not necessarily true. They are piecemealing their quarantines as Chihuahua has been under a stay at home for a bit after El Paso and New Mexico went. Near Mexico City though, it’s a shitshow. One of the governors claiming poor people can’t get it and AMLO going to meet El Chapo’s mom while his government is trying to emphasize quarantines sums up current Mexican politics really well.
  16. You do realize that Italy didn’t immediately issue a national lockdown and they have tremendous pressure from the south about it, right? https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1262824/Coronavirus-horror-violence-Italy-COVID-19-unrest-chaos-shortages-news Im not going to defend our current policies, but Italy isn’t some shining example that far exceeds what we’ve done.
  17. You really think that Italy and Spain don’t matter. We are using an exponential growth system based on measured data that has proven it out. Further, you really don’t think Spain and Italy don’t have an overstresssed system at this point? Are you just purposely avoiding the news from there where they are picking who to give treatment to and using ice rinks as temporary morgues? This isn’t some math problem and these models are built upon it not just being an exponential curve that any moron can put together. Why would we not use proven data to calibrate a model?
  18. Except no country in the world has seen that multiplier stay above 1.2 above 4,000 deaths, including Spain and Italy which have been battered by this. I know we are already in a black swan event, but you can’t keep extrapolating out when we have data from other places that indicate that it is unlikely to keep up said multiplier. Looks, it’s still not a good situation, but if we continue to provide predictions that project carnage in the streets that don’t actually happen, it’s going to give more resolve to the morons who think this is no worse than the flu or H1N1. Those models that continually get posted focus way too much on the raw numbers opposed to the behavior and outcomes needed to stretch out and minimize needless deaths (e.g. we need these measures to flatten the curve to not overwhelm the system, we need to be prepared better for the next epidemic as it can come from anywhere, this is going to be months not weeks of various measures, etc).
  19. Do you really think that testing for corona virus isn’t going to capture the people who have died?
  20. Because we’ve implemented some significant changes and that trajectory would be well ahead of the rest of the world. Even in Italy, it’s taken them 10 days to go from 4K deaths to 10k deaths. But what you are extrapolating is something that hasn’t been seen anywhere, including the original place that was trying to hide there was anything in the first place. We’ll get to 50k deaths and this is absolutely a dangerous virus, but to reach the current worldwide deaths in half a month after quarantining a huge chunk of the country is highly unlikely.
  21. The joys of typing quickly on an iPhone. My point is that we’ll reach that number, but that number of deaths is still relatively large compared to the havoc we’ve already seen from the virus. It’s highly unlikely we’d get there in 10 days as that would require, on average, more deaths per day than what we currently have total.
  22. Friendly reminder that the world isn’t at that number yet from the reported deaths and that even the estimates from Wuhuan based on the urns is less than that number.
  23. Man, this really doesn't seem like it's going to end well for India. The way the quarantine was implemented and the delay in time along with the coincidence of religious festivals is going to spread the virus it like a wildfire. Meanwhile in Mexico.... That's during a period where the government is telling people to stay home.
  24. We’ve gotten some incredible eSports in different ways though. NASCAR on FS1 was something to behold.
  25. Except we can't really trust the information coming out from them based on their confirmed cases and death, their false report about the transmission of the disease, their bad tests that they sent to Italy and Spain, and how they are actively using propaganda to put the blame on others, particularly the US. Unless whatever they claim is proved true by the WHO, you can't really trust anything from them. We are better to look at places like South Korea which have been fighting it for as nearly as long and also aren't actively spreading misinformation.
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