Except no country in the world has seen that multiplier stay above 1.2 above 4,000 deaths, including Spain and Italy which have been battered by this. I know we are already in a black swan event, but you can’t keep extrapolating out when we have data from other places that indicate that it is unlikely to keep up said multiplier.
Looks, it’s still not a good situation, but if we continue to provide predictions that project carnage in the streets that don’t actually happen, it’s going to give more resolve to the morons who think this is no worse than the flu or H1N1. Those models that continually get posted focus way too much on the raw numbers opposed to the behavior and outcomes needed to stretch out and minimize needless deaths (e.g. we need these measures to flatten the curve to not overwhelm the system, we need to be prepared better for the next epidemic as it can come from anywhere, this is going to be months not weeks of various measures, etc).