JBJ
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Viewing Topic: Transfer Cycle 2025-2026 - Helobious Is Getting Those Wrists Ready For Heavy Work
Everything posted by JBJ
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
I'd have to dig through data specifically for BYU, but the note on the last one is that teams carry two types of uncertainty with them through the season. One is week-to-week consistency, which is deviation in the normal sense. The other is data reliability. This shrinks over the course of the season, but shrinks most when you play a team that matches evenly with you. For example, if you have a good run defense - have you played a good run team? How many and how good? It's not always necessarily indicative of overall SOS, but they are related at the higher end of the spectrum. And, at the higher end of the spectrum, data reliability is a strong predictor of an upset. You see this play out when say A&M, with the #2 offense but #100+ reliability, suddenly can't move the ball well against Texas who has a great run defense, better than any they have faced.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
What I'll say about BYU: - Resume is very good - Resume is still good with a loss - They are the only non-SEC playoff contender that my model thinks it has reliable enough data on to support their power ranking (i.e. they played a schedule that challenged their perceived strengths)
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
We are moving inevitably toward a system where all the B1G and SEC teams with 7 conference wins will be in, and remaining seats will be invitational after that. Which is fine with me honestly. It would have been the top 7 SEC teams with the top 5 B1Gs this year which would be a badass tourney and rating extravaganza.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
It's not us that needs to change. Playoff selection needs to change, and everyone else needs to change. There's no reason to race to the bottom. No one wants this.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Yeah. The Georgia fans that I know are scared of Bama and rooting for A&M to beat Texas for that reason. (They are also irrationally jealous of us, so already hated us.)
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
Your premise is wrong because we aren't being treated as a 2-loss team. We are being treated as a 3-loss team with a top 10 SOS. Our SOR is stronger than our ranking. It's insane that we are ranked below our SOR with the wins that we have. It means the commitee looked at us and Miami and went. "Texas has the stronger record, lost to #36 vs lost to #24 and #29, much much better wins...okay Miami should be ahead."
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
Miami has better wins, though. The ND-Miami game has to matter or why do we even play?
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Loss column doesn't even matter this year. Ask @Crockett
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
If you are good enough at Russian roulette, 5 or 6 wouldn't matter.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
If the NFL ended today, 6-6 Baltimore is in the Playoffs over 8-4 Buffalo and 9-4 SF who both also have a tougher SOS. ...and the other 6-6 team in the same division played a tougher SOS.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
Clemson being good the past decade is the only reason the ACC is considered a power conference. It's why all their brands want out.
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Arch Manning: Scores every way possible
Mel's sources are agents. He will bag or promote any players they tell him to in order to maintain access.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
They aren't allowed to consider MoV.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
THIS 100%. I'm not really mad that we got left out. Young team and it took a while for us to really get going. 5th in the SEC, rough road games. But look at how little other teams have accomplished that are going to be in. And not just one team. Half the field.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
Vandy and Notre Dame have very comparable resumes. Won the games they should. Lost two games above them. Vandy edges ND in my SOR, but it's not by much. Vandy has better wins, but ND has better losses.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
That's why we are above them in SOR. That's exactly what SOR does, but it's only as good as data going in.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
The way I see it is that losing the game will almost always cost you 4 spots (it's probably costing us 5 spots this year), and winning it maybe gives you two spots if SOS is an actual determinant. It starts to make sense to play an OOC game where you are a 7-point favorite (75% chance to win). So if you think are the best team in the nation, you want to schedule like a Pittsburgh at best.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
The main issue is scheduling. There is just no way to evaluate these teams, even for computer polls. The teams with the 2nd, 4th, 5th, 12th, 17th, and 18th least reliable data according to my model are: Ohio State, Tech, Indiana, Oregon, Miami, and Notre Dame. It's not a coincidence that these are basically all playoff teams not in the SEC. Dodging tough games is the entire system.
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: Boulevard of Broken Bagmen
I need some fun today after that rankings show.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
If it's Texas vs Michigan? Probably all of them: 1. SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Texas 16.63 Million Conference Title 2. Texas at Ohio State: 16.6 million viewers OOC 2. Tennessee vs. Ohio State 14.68 Million Playoff Game 3. Indiana vs. Notre Dame 13.39 Million Playoff Game 4. Georgia at Texas 13.19 Million Regular Season 5. Michigan at Ohio State 12.30 Million Regular Season Rivalry 6. Georgia at Alabama 11.99 Million Regular Season Rivalry
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
We need to throw water bottles. Point me in the right direction.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
I thought I wanted to hear the committee explanation, but geez that's bad....in addition to those pointed out already, does he realize who Miami's losses are?
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
People aren't thinking this through. They think it's a good game to play if you a have a 60% chance to win. It's still not.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Playoff expansion will not help this issue.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Hopefully we can get Longhorn-shaped Cheez-Its as a consolation.