Everything posted by JBJ
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
It implies around 15%, but it's the movement that is intriguing. We started the day under 5%.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Our FD odds are an exact mirror of Bama. So should we interpret that as Bama loses = we are in (according to the books)?
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
My stance is that you can't name 5 active coaches better, and the ones you do name aren't available at all. So what's the point?
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Shhhh ...let the dude shoot his shot.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Risk vs reward. It's mutually beneficial to cancel the game even if both teams expect to win.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
There are underwriting standards they adhere to. They don't perfectly split the money but they also can't set up positions against the money coming in.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Yeah...which goes back to my other post about betting on something that people decide. For a commitee that started formal discussions yesterday and probably already has concluded.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Money always drives the odds. Even to form the opening lines, Vegas has private early openings and the money bet during those drives the public openings.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
It bugs me that sportbooks allow betting on something that gets decided. That doesn't have the randomness of a sporting event or race. You can have inside knowledge about like a player being sick during practice, but it doesn't guarantee a win still. Inside knowledge in this case...
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Comp teams are: Virginia, Clemson, Arizona State, South Carolina. It's LOL that one of those teams has 4 wins and one is likely the ACC Champ. Florida is #37 in my power ratings. They were #31 before they fired Billy. They aren't a great team, but they are competent.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
On the right track, but the problem is the scheduling not the postseason. There should be a standard, even if it's not bullet proof. Notre Dame played 5 Top 40 teams. Texas Tech played 3 Top 40 teams. We literally don't have enough data points to form a solid opinion regardless of the postseason format.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
Cam rambles a lot on his show (to fill time, I believe), but he has solid takes and football knowledge.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Something else in Herbie's post: "where you lost" was pointed out by I believe Ruffino of all people. Texas lost at the Horseshoe, Swamp, and Hedges.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Because it was all done piecemeal through lawsuits and TV contracts. There's no master plan, and the NCAA couldn't care less about football. It makes more money from WBB than football. This example is good timing for us.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
They lost basically the entire offensive staff and they are not good on defense. It should definitely be a discussion.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
This could work except that OSU has the weakest SOS behind Tech.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
The more I sift through the other bubble teams, the more I think we have a decent shot. --- We passed Michigan and Utah in SOR, and I think those are gimmes. It's impossible to keep Vandy above us. --- We have 3 good wins, 2 good losses, 1 bad loss. Miami has 1 good win, 2 bad losses. Notre Dame has no good wins (maybe USC?, but that a far worse win than above), 2 good losses. --- BYU and Bama seem out if they lose. Tech's SOR hits the floor if they lose, I really think this might be elimination for them as well. --- When you start comparing resumes higher up, it's really hard to keep OU above us. We hold SEC standing and h2h. ------- I think 13 is our absolute floor for this week, which might end up first out if things go chalk, but, man, there's strong arguments we end up 8 if things do go chalk.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
The tOSU game is also a plus data point. And Bama has a non-data point in EIU, so we will have the same overall number of data points.
- Texas vs. Texas A&M - 6:30pm on ABC
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Why does Virginia hate us? Did I miss something?
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Post-season was never the real issue.
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Diego Pavia - The Chihuahua that thinks he's a Mastiff
Is that 3 arrests this season?
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
It's the S portion of S&P+. I believe it is adjusted, but Fremeau efficiency index is better to use as a standalone efficiency.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Pods and mega conferences make ignoring the CCG really problematic, in fact. I really don't think you can do the beauty contest and cherry-pick data points. It goes weird places.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
We finished 5th, though.