JBJ
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Viewing Topic: Citrus Bowl, Dec 31st - Texas vs Michigan.
Everything posted by JBJ
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2025 Random Games thread
These OU uniforms are ugly. How did they pass approval?
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2025 Random Games thread
And North Texas
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
We do see that. Every below 0.500 team has one of these wins except Arkansas and Kentucky. USCe over VT, Kentucky; Auburn over Baylor; Miss State over Arizona State; Florida over Texas.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
This chart does a really good job of showing the relative strength and parity of each conference. Vertical is a power rating. Horizontal is meaningless, it just spreads out each conference evenly with a little jitter to avoid overlaps. You can see Ohio State in the top left to Oklahoma State in the bottom right. The bold black lines are how I generally group teams to give a brief look at resume. Above the first black line are contenders. Obviously one team is favored when they play each other but it's not generally considered an upset to lose against these teams. I guess it's the "good loss" category. For reference, the teams just above this line in each conference are Miami, Utah, Oregon, and Oklahoma. The lower bold black line is basically the Mendoza line of college football. Teams above are upset watch teams, and below the black line generally have no chance. Dangerous teams who are not good losses, but still possible upsets. This year it just happens to be exactly the top 40 teams. For reference, the teams just above this line in each conference - teams with the slightest chance to upset a contender - are Cincy, Virginia, Nebraska, and Florida. And just below - teams just outside reach of an upset - are Arizona State (who actually did beat Tech this year), Clemson, Northwestern. For SOS, a good quick comparison is to look with is how many teams there are in each group to play: Texas: 4+5 (#1 SOS in my model when actually calculated out) Notre Dame: 2+3 (#34 SOS) TxTech: 1+1 (#50 SOS) So for the SEC: this is the first year I've ever seen (going back over 20 years) an entire conference above the Mendoza line. In fact, I believe in the "no bad teams" B12 year that 4 teams were still below this line. Which means, for this one year, the SEC is exactly what the pundits have been wishing it were for 2 decades: a conference where a single bad game on any Saturday of the season actually does sink the boat.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
It's the opposite, though. SEC has a lot of parity and a lot of capable teams. It's like a generationally strong bottom of the conference this year. I'll post some stuff from the model later tonight because you are thinking of it completely wrong.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
Also, (too late to edit): The correct word is relational- not circular - because it's not starting from a place that gets it back to that same place. It iterates between teams that have played until it produces an acceptable outcome. I can clear my model and start with Okie State preseason as the greatest team of all time and all the SEC teams occupying the lowest places, but it'll work back to the exact same place that it is right now.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
I agree on these two points, but models do a decent job of churning all the data and spitting out estimates that are pretty close to reality. The more quality non-conference games that we get the more reliable it becomes to do this. However, having done this a number of years, bowls just don't majorly change what the model thinks about teams or conferences, even though that's when half of the good games happen. The issue with SOS specifically is that there are several different methods trying to measure different things that all call themselves SOS. When people colloquially use it, they are trying to answer, "How difficult is it (or how good a team do you need to be) to play through a schedule and make the playoff?" Not all models are even trying to answer that in their SOS rankings, though. (And people will cherry-pick.)
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
About half of the top 10 SoS's are SEC teams. And A&M is one of those or just outside depending on where you look. I agree that we are here largely because the top 2 conferences stacked talent. I think where we differ is that I understand that those conferences will take their ball and go home within a decade if we don't get some sort of reasonable scheduling OR playoff selection consideration.
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Texas Coaches Carousel
I want to remind everyone that Lane Kiffin has been a head coach for 14 years and has: 0 playoff appearances 2 conf championships (USA) 2 NY6 appearances 1 NY6 bowl win
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2025 Week 13: Arkansas @ Texas.
This describes more playoff teams than it doesn't.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
My guess: 1 Ohio State (1) 2 Indiana (2) 3 Georgia (5) 4 Texas A&M (4) 5 Texas Tech (6) 6 Ole Miss (7) 7 Oregon (8) 8 Oklahoma (11) 9 Alabama (4) 10 Notre Dame (9) 11 BYU (12) 12 Utah (13) 13 Vanderbilt (14) 14 Miami (15) 15 Georgia Tech (16) 16 USC (17) 17 Texas (10) 18 Michigan (18) 19 Virginia (19) 20 Tennessee (23) 21 Illinois (NR) 22 North Texas (NR) 22 Missouri (NR) 24 Washington (NR) 25 Louisville (20)
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Texas @ Georgia November 15, 2025 - The Beginning or The End
This one is on me guys. We've never lost a game in Georgia while I was here. We've lost both where I had to be out of town.
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Texas @ Georgia November 15, 2025 - The Beginning or The End
Take the bad with the good lol.
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Texas @ Georgia November 15, 2025 - The Beginning or The End
Holy shit that spot.
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Texas @ Georgia November 15, 2025 - The Beginning or The End
Their PI and holds were worse than the ones called on us.
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Texas @ Georgia November 15, 2025 - The Beginning or The End
5.6 ypc, That's very good.
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Texas @ Georgia November 15, 2025 - The Beginning or The End
Every UGA game that I've watched has been like this. It's not us. SEC officiating needs to clean house. They already started.
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Texas @ Georgia November 15, 2025 - The Beginning or The End
Gotta take the bad with the good with Wingo. OL looks good, let's keep it up.
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Texas @ Georgia November 15, 2025 - The Beginning or The End
OL looking good.
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2025 Random Games thread
- 2025 Random Games thread
I didn't watch, wth is going on?- Oklahoma @ Alabama
- Oklahoma @ Alabama
Both these QBs are playing wild with the ball. Bama isn't getting consistent enough pressure to force mistakes on Mateer, though.- 2025 Random Games thread
Ty Simpson seems like he sucks.- 2025 Random Games thread
USF and Cincy weren't ranked for long. - 2025 Random Games thread
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