I think the first part should happen and is pretty likely to happen. That football will break out separate from other conference affiliations. Not all at once, and the regional B1G and SEC teams might not need to for a long time.
I doubt the part on a unified media rights deal. Disparate media value is what is the driving force towards a stacked B1G and SEC. We had a unified media rights deal not too long ago, and, whether for more money or more exposure, the teams and conferences that could get better deals broke off of it. I'm sure there are multiple ways to structure payouts fairly, but there are too many voices in the room to convince everyone. And I think people underestimate the value over exposure over money to a lot of schools (look at SMU).
I think one of the only ways to make this actually work would be a relegation system with media deals negotiated around each tier with payouts being "smoothed out" based on the past several years to avoid budget changes for teams that get promoted/relegated. The argument could at least be made that everyone has the opportunity to be on TV and make money and it's up to the team to win. The new permanent underclass will be more willing to swallow cuts if they feel that they at least control their own destiny. I don't know how you actually kickstart this system, though. No one will want to be the bubble team left out of the top division. Another "independent" selection committee?