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JBJ

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Everything posted by JBJ

  1. I'd have: In (8): Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, Tennessee Win and in (3): SMU/Clemson, Iowa State/Arizona State, Boise State/UNLV Alabama last in. Gonna be honest though that last spot is a doozy: Alabama would be favored over the other last-spot teams, but they struggle to sustain drives so are pretty erratic offensively. Then, when teams can run on them, they can really run on them. And they don't seem to be getting any better as the season went on. SMU probably has the best last-spot resume even if they lose, but they just ain't a top 10 team and would struggle to beat a top 10 team. One could argue USCe is playing their best football right now. They also have a good defense and QB, so are fairly balanced and capable of beating good teams. Really hard to say they has a better season than Bama, though - and the head-to-head. Miami is all offense so could potentially beat anyone but also could lose to anyone. However. I have a feeling they would run into these playoff defenses and just get pummeled.
  2. Eleven-win Steve
  3. Seems high.
  4. How many timeouts do they get?
  5. Nah. We can do this all night.
  6. 4 turnovers
  7. This is true. Klatt's "flat league" and On3's "no bad teams" are accurate descriptions. It's stronger than the ACC in every respect and in my model the average team rating isn't far off that of the B1G. It's cannabalizing itself ltop to bottom the same way the middle of the SEC is.
  8. There are so many different ways to calculate SoS. It's usually a meaningless rank and people definitely shop around for the one they want to make an argument.
  9. Vegas has Indiana -1.5 over PSU in a hypothetical. Indiana is a good team.
  10. a) Lot's of people saying OSU and Texas would be in a better playoff position if they lose one of the next two games. b) In the past, CCGs literally cost teams spots in the playoff or major bowls. CCGs are less impactful now, not more.
  11. This is less true now than anytime in the history of football.
  12. I'd have Iowa State higher and SMU lower.
  13. I'm not. We are in an era of college ball where the the schedules are going to be increasingly divergent. The reality is that Oklahoma would probably be in the top 25 if they played a B12 or ACC schedule.
  14. It's highly regarded to discuss how many teams a conference deserves to get in without talking the actual teams on the bubble.
  15. Arizona State* and Iowa State control their own destinies.
  16. There's a good shot the winner of Clemson-South Carolina gets in with Bama first team out.
  17. Compiled thoughts: 1) There's an argument Oregon, Texas, and Ohio State have punched their tickets already. 2) The way it stands now, it's gonna be difficult to let a 3-loss team in. 3) The final two weeks of the B12 were/are drama-filled. Arizona and Iowa State now control their own destiny after needing quite a bit of chaos this time last week. Here's how my model projects the CFP and CCG odds:
  18. Oklahoma is 23rd in my power ratings with the number 11 defense, so this is accurate. Florida is 15th. Mizzou is 29th, so it starts to get dicey.
  19. Poor aggy.
  20. If Bama loses and A&M wins. It'll be wild. There's only 1 game difference between UGA and A&M in conf opponent win percentage.
  21. I actually did, and the past few pages to make sure it wasn't posted. I guess he he posted it while I was checking to see if it was posted.
  22. Not terrible this week. Skip to 2:40 for Texas.
  23. The "Rank" in these charts is my simulated CFP committee ranks, which I actually jumped the gun on before all the data was in. Texas is actually #2
  24. In the ACC, SMU clinches a spot with another win. Miami must win out. Clemson is finished with conference play and a single loss. They need Miami to lose or SMU to lose twice. In the B1G, Oregon has finished their conference play undefeated, so they have already clenched. Ohio State and Indiana both control their own fate. They meet next Saturday at Noon. Penn State needs absolute chaos: Ohio State to beat Indiana and then both team to lose the final week to Michigan and Purdue respectively. The Big XII is shaping up to be Colorado against BYU. Arizona State gets in with an unlikely 4-way tie. Iowa State needs chaos. In the SEC, Alabama, Texas, and Texas A&M control their own fates. Alabama is actually the safest bet right now due to an easier slate of games (Oklahoma and Auburn). Georgia gets in with an Alabama loss or chaos from on of the Texas teams. Ole Miss is technically not eliminated, but it requires the unlikeliest of chaos scenarios. There are 20 remaining playoff contenders, including 6 SEC teams. The field still has a decent enough chance as well - South Carolina is the next best shot if they can knock off Clemson and it's likely Tulane gets the nod if the leading G5 teams both lose.
  25. What a catch
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