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JBJ

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  1. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    JBJ replied to taybo20's topic in Football

    Rounding a 1st down up to the nearest yardline is standard practice at all levels now. They do this to reduce measurements - or rather the time spent measuring. Odds are good that the play did result in a 1st down and that the chains were off for whatever reason.
  2. JBJ
    My little CFP predictor has it OSU, Tenn, UGA, Michigan in that order. It would not be shocking at all to see Tenn #1. TCU checks in at 6, KSU 10, Texas at 25.
  3. JBJ
    Yes. The secondary as a whole is playing field and boundary. That's not really how any of this works. You match formations and routes. In a standard Sky/Cloud setting, the boundary tends to get more help because the field has more space that the offense likes to attack. (Therefore the field safety is occupied with a route more often and isn't able to provide as much help.) Against ISU, we were not often playing this version of quarters. We were frequently playing versions where matching happens between the safeties, and the corners were not expecting any help at all. For the same reason of offenses like to attack space, this tends to move the safeties toward the field. Without listening to him, I can only guess that this is what Babers was talking about. Watts is not getting as much help, but really neither is Jamison. You are sacrificing help outside to get more aggressive over the middle.
  4. JBJ
    I think the elite playmaker tends to be true for offensive skill positions but not OL or defense. A defense tends to only be as good as it's weakest link (and the oppositions ability to exploit it). Same for OL. As an example, between Georgia and NC State, there's likely only one 1 RD draft pick on both defenses. But they appear to be the two consensus dominant defenses this year.
  5. JBJ
    On porpoise*
  6. JBJ
    South Alabama is the second-best team they've played all season and they needed a last minute fieldgoal to win that game.
  7. JBJ
    I would bet that the high blitz rate, poor man coverage, and 3rd down conversions are all ultimately the same stat.
  8. JBJ
    It was a Big 12 referee.
  9. JBJ
    Texas 38 Okie St 27 Prop 20 - 277
  10. JBJ
    They ran a go and deep out with a RB flaring out to create a simple flood. The normal way to cover this would be Barron staying over the Go, Hill driving on the deep out, OLB splitting the difference of the out and flare - not really covering either but forcing air under the ball to the deep out while still being able to come up and make a tackle on the flare. What happened at the critical moment isn't on camera, but it looks like both Cook and Barron drove on the deep out, leaving the Go wide open. We don't play soft coverage. It's almost like a meme on this board for the other team to catch any pass and people to knee jerk something about soft coverage.
  11. JBJ
    Coverage bust between Barron and Cook, seemingly on Barron.
  12. JBJ
    It actually opened-1. The early line was +2.5
  13. JBJ
    I understand what you guys are saying. They don't 100% balance or even try to every single game. They aren't swinging the line so far that they lose both ways and if they think the public money is dumb, they'll take a stand because they think they have an advantage on the outcome itself. The statistics are what they are, though. Vegas loses more bets than they win. At the end of the day it's 100% juice even though they might win individual games.
  14. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    JBJ replied to taybo20's topic in Football

    The non-tripping on Bijan stood out to me as the worst call. Worthy getting tackled without DPI is hard to explain. The illegal snap just doesn't look like one from the only angle we have. The runner isn't defenseless on the fumble, so it would have to be crown of the helmet. That was a good no-call.
  15. JBJ
    It is 100% this. Vegas loses more sportsbook bets than they win. They make 100% of their revenue on the juice and they have to use some of that money to pay winners.
  16. JBJ
    USC vs Utah is not doing much for either team. It looks like very slight upward pressure for both teams. I'd have to look through to see but it's probably because previous opponents look better this week. Oregon State pulled off a big upset. They were a common opponent of both teams - although USC also played Wazzu, who was on the receiving end. LSU's win was pretty ho-hum from the perspective of a top 20 team. (I understand what it means from a rivalry perspective.) But it's actually a net negative for them in the model. They fell in part because they have a relatively high-rated but also untested defense, which gives them plenty of space to fall when they have let downs against mediocre offenses.
  17. JBJ
    From le model, Texas stands pat - Michigan jumps us while Wake Forest falls. Out of all top 25 defenses, Texas is the most battle-tested (played the most good offenses) and most reliable (fewest let-down games). Most of the lightly-tested teams have washed out of the top 20 (Minnesota was there last week). I think NCSU is the most suspect, highly rated defense but lowly battle-tested.
  18. JBJ
    Give me Kansas, TCU, Bama, Michigan, and Utah.
  19. JBJ
    Texas 24 ISU 10 32 attempts 120 yards.
  20. JBJ
    Blocked extra point where Auburn catches it and gets turned around. He runs backwards 90 yards for a 1-pt safety.
  21. JBJ
    His targets/completions-allowed stat line is just as impressive: 165 passes 20 targets (12%) 8 Completions (40% of targets - 4.8% of snaps) 79 yards (3.95 YPT)
  22. JBJ
    I've got us at 12% chance to win out. Texas is #5, so it's not because mine is less high on Texas. TCU is currently a low-confidence top 10 team in mine, so they are the only game below 70%.
  23. JBJ
    The B12 is certainly the harder conference to win this year. WVU is likely on the bottom and likely better than aggy, who is low-mid in the SEC.
  24. JBJ
    The only reason anyone posted anything is because the commentary guy very early said we needed to adjust after OU had a single decent run. The next two wildcat plays combined for 0 yards. Most announcers are just talking to fill space; don't take them seriously.
  25. JBJ
    Texas 31 OU 24 Prop 287

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