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JBJ

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Everything posted by JBJ

  1. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    What's the total number of holds across the Big 12. I've always had the impression it's just less common here.
  2. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    Maybe more realistic: 2 calls in 400 snaps at 30 snaps per penalty is 1.4th percentile. Any way you look at it, it's either extremely rare/unlucky or something else.
  3. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    It's not that simple because of a small-ish sample size. I think the right way to do this would be offensive/return snaps per penalty and a binomial distribution. However, even if we go really simple and conservative: say there's a 60% chance of a team getting a hold in any game. Over 9 games with only 2 called, it's below the 3rd percentile.
  4. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    Holding is the most common NFL penalty. It's more frequent in the NCAA at around 3 per game, but false starts overtake holding as the most common penalty.
  5. Same. Never liked the idea, and I think he's a good coach.
  6. Mr Tumnus is out of eligibility. Prince Caspian would be a good get.
  7. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    Yes. A sideways pass behind the line of scrimmage is always ruled forward and from beyond the line of scrimmage is always ruled backwards.
  8. You are welcome.
  9. Bijan was the year we "missed" Zach Evans and Ty Jordan.
  10. Tennessee named 12 players in their internal investigation and Huepel seems like a decent hire for the time being. We don't know the full extent of what their punishment will be yet. Pruitt's buyout was $12MM, which is about the same that we paid Herman.
  11. I think they are at the point where an internal investigation will find that one of their outbound players took illegal benefits. They'll take the infractions hit in order to get out of that contract.
  12. His Husky teams were 21-3 when favored and 12-26 when not favored. They were slightly above average at getting the upset, but very good at winning when favored. And he never had a year losing more than 1 game when favored. If you just go by Vegas he was 33-29 but should have been 24-38.
  13. Sorry for the derail. Here's my longcat to try to get this back on track. Here's a decade's worth of mediocrity summed up in nice bullets: 1) Player development. This has been our biggest issue. It's a struggle to identify find ex-players who actually improved YOY. The NFL draft appears to agree. A lot of that is on position coaching and SC. 2) Scheme changes. Some of this is hiring and some of it is on the coaches. Strong recruited himself out of his stack defense. Orlando inherited a roster unsuited for his defense, and his solution was to play a Will at DL and an edge at essentially a weak safety position. We had a walkon MLB playing edge for good chunks last year because the Orlando defense didn't really need edges. People can scream to change the scheme to match personnel, but that's not really conducive to point #1, nor is it really how college coaching functions. It's primarily a hiring issue, imo. Do you want to hire a guy that can have success with the roster or a guy to completely rebuild? We've done the latter while expecting the former. This kind of blends with next point: 3) Roster management. We recruit talent, but we don't stack it up well enough and we create some glaring roster problems when we miss in recruiting. These issues linger for years, and pre-portal there was no good fix (and I don't think the portal is a cure-all - it does help and we should use it). The previous staffs were terrible at this. Current examples include: Having 2 upperclassmen at OL (and 1 is injured). That's been a problem this year. Having 0 SO/RS-FR at LB. That'll be a problem next year and the next - either by youth or pickins from the portal, or by plugging in someone not ideal. It'll be solved somehow, but it won't be better than having 5 or 6 of your own recruits, who have lived the system for a couple years already, competing for playing time. --- Here's what I'm optimistic about Sark on these points: 1) We actually got better this year. Not just the team by adding and subtracting talent, but individual players did basically across the board with a few exceptions. Some are substantially better: Christian Jones, pick any DT, Sorrell, Ford, Jamison, Thompson. Card for the portions that we've seen him each year. The staff is undeniably better than previous iterations when it comes to actually coaching. 2) Portal changes the game here, and it's TBD how things work out, but Sark at least got a couple edges and a LB as much-needed stopgaps. Then, he's loaded recruiting classes with TEs/RBs to fit his preferred personnels on offense. He whittled down the WR room and brought in some portal guys (this maybe hasn't worked out great but imagine where we'd be with Marcus Washington as WR #1). 3) This is TBD, but he at least says the correct things. He understands the need to stack talent year-over-year. QB and RB are obvious examples of this. He loaded up the OL two years running because it was a looming issue. He talks about the roster not just in terms of the starters, but how many scholarships are being devoted to a position, how young or old the position is, who hasn't seen the field but is coming along. He doesn't seem afraid to make cuts (portal helps here as well). --- What I'm pessimistic about: We have difficulty putting complete games together. I don't know why. One unit plays well and the other doesn't. Offense on fire until half then disappears. Are we inconsistent at gameprep? Too limited to adjust? Can't pass when they stop the run? Poor conditioning? Is it mental? Is it missing depth or talent? Snakebit? The theme of this season is looking like a really good team yet losing games we shouldn't.
  14. A) Nah. I'm going to need you to chart every single time we were in nickel or dime. B) M Griffin could easily mean Marcus. Seriously, though, I already said Marcus was #6 in tackles, which is a decent enough metric for what the overall contribution was.
  15. I swear to god, dude. He had 23 tackles and played all 13 games. Here's a screencap of the nickel defense:
  16. In 2006 he was injured vs Rice. In 2005 he played all 13 games.
  17. Huff played nickel because it was essentially the same as SS in Akina's single-high base. His nickel package added a safety to the boundary who was Marcus Griffin.
  18. I was going with Griffinx3, Huff, Ross as the 5. I feel like Marcus was the 5th guy on the field when we were nickel. Ross and Brown rotated pretty evenly. I think Ross started at the beginning of the season and Brown ended up starting late. Wish I could find snap counts, but going by tackles it would be Marcus Griffin is #6. Solid college player, but not in the realm of his brother or Huff.
  19. Are you a teenager? Washington was a literal dumpster fire. Worst program in all the FBS. Tarell Brown who is also an NFLer.
  20. So the stippers were maybe too effective?
  21. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    But we did get that Ineligible Man Downfield call. That was weird. Maybe a make-up call from the Sanders hold on the previous drive.
  22. Texas 31 Baylor 24 Bijan - 176
  23. Agree on Sorrell. He's going to be the primary edge rusher moving forward. Ovie is being asked to read-pop, glance, spy, etc more often than he's directly rushing, which is fine for his skill set. I can see guys like Burke, Walton, and Gullette being used the same way depending on how they develop. I think we have edges on our roster, but that's not saying that we can't grab the right guy from the portal. You aren't wrong. But Murphy and Broughton are rotating in often without noticeable drop off and should be good next year. It's that the next crop of DT2s are redshirting, so only the coaches know how that's going. Collins is solid depth even if he's not the superstar we want him to be. I'd be prioritizing a portal LB. We are losing a lot, and there's not much depth there to begin with. I don't think a 5* freshmen LB fully solves the issue, either. DB is another spot where the backups drop off quite a bit from starters. We have young talent there, but they've been tested and failed quite a bit this year.
  24. We were decent at this last year, but it felt more like individual efforts. There are plays this year with 3-4 guys getting there immediately. Even when the corner blows it up right away there are other hats coming in hot.
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