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JBJ

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Everything posted by JBJ

  1. It's 50/50 on how teams choose to defend a Smash concept. You can have the corner stay off and double the corner route or have him attack the stop. The safety will always top the corner route. It looks like we are choosing to have the corner attack the stop, which basically puts him in man the moment the stop happens. When the ball isn't thrown to the stop timely, Johnson looks to be anticipating a Q/Pivot route (stop and out). He's lost when the WR releases upfield.
  2. Updated model: Texas doesn't move, but the model is predicting a jump in CFP rank. Tennessee lost but passed tOSU, because Ohio State played liked ass (there was a slight breeze as well). Alabama slipped behind Michigan, but stays ahead of Texas. TCU is predicted for the coveted #4 CFP slot, Kansas is shown to be sneaking in, Baylor has a shot. The model had Ohio State #1 last week and again this week, but it's pretty safe to say they'll give it to UGA.
  3. It's this. We suck at man. Behind Jamison and Watts, we don't have the guys good enough in coverage to do it.
  4. Refs taking over this drive.
  5. Texas 31 KSU 28 71 plays - long of 33
  6. They aren't Young Thug, but Migos are in some form from the street. Broken homes and all the mess that follows. Their namesake comes from a local gang. Atlanta rap in general has been all kinds of a mess the past decade. It's a better than 50/50 bet that any Atl rap artist is in a street gang or a street gang will form around them or adopt them quickly.
  7. The least balanced team is #1 though. Okay. I don't hate where TCU or Tenn is, but this explanation makes no sense.
  8. Because he was a solid EBS that is currently on an NFL roster. Swaim only had 13 receptions for 84 yards at Texas yet is one of the better TEs we've had lately. He's not the level of Jabrill Peppers, but he's somewhere in there among the more talented players Harbaugh had.
  9. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    I posted on the other thread holding is the second most called penalty in CFB and most called in the NFL. 2-3 per game is the normal range (1-1.5 per team).
  10. To add to this, holding is the 2nd most called penalty in CFB (it's the most called in the NFL). 2-3 per game would be normal. That's because you are thinking of the wrong Tyrone Wheatley. The RB had a son who was a 5*/4* TE/DE, depending on which recruiting service you look at. He played TE at Michigan until fracturing his foot going into his senior year.
  11. Hoke left behind a fuckton of talent. Zach Gentry, Shane Morris, DeVeon Smith, Derrick Green, Tyrone Wheatley, Mason Cole, Graham Glasgow, Chase Winovich, Jake Butt, Ian Bunting, Jarrell Peppers, Jourdan Lewis, Taco Charlton, Chris Wormley, Ryan Glasgow, Maurice Hurst, Bryan Mone, Ben Gedeon, Jeremy Clark. That's a a lot draft picks, and I'm sure I'm missing some who were drafted late and never amounted to anything.
  12. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    The CFB Reddit about the defense giving up X total yards is completely off base as well. These things don't happen in a vaccum. When you gift another team a few drive extensions that creates more plays and more yards almost by default. The opposite is also true when you call phantom holds on offense. Penalty yards don't tell the full story.
  13. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    Rounding a 1st down up to the nearest yardline is standard practice at all levels now. They do this to reduce measurements - or rather the time spent measuring. Odds are good that the play did result in a 1st down and that the chains were off for whatever reason.
  14. My little CFP predictor has it OSU, Tenn, UGA, Michigan in that order. It would not be shocking at all to see Tenn #1. TCU checks in at 6, KSU 10, Texas at 25.
  15. Yes. The secondary as a whole is playing field and boundary. That's not really how any of this works. You match formations and routes. In a standard Sky/Cloud setting, the boundary tends to get more help because the field has more space that the offense likes to attack. (Therefore the field safety is occupied with a route more often and isn't able to provide as much help.) Against ISU, we were not often playing this version of quarters. We were frequently playing versions where matching happens between the safeties, and the corners were not expecting any help at all. For the same reason of offenses like to attack space, this tends to move the safeties toward the field. Without listening to him, I can only guess that this is what Babers was talking about. Watts is not getting as much help, but really neither is Jamison. You are sacrificing help outside to get more aggressive over the middle.
  16. I think the elite playmaker tends to be true for offensive skill positions but not OL or defense. A defense tends to only be as good as it's weakest link (and the oppositions ability to exploit it). Same for OL. As an example, between Georgia and NC State, there's likely only one 1 RD draft pick on both defenses. But they appear to be the two consensus dominant defenses this year.
  17. South Alabama is the second-best team they've played all season and they needed a last minute fieldgoal to win that game.
  18. I would bet that the high blitz rate, poor man coverage, and 3rd down conversions are all ultimately the same stat.
  19. It was a Big 12 referee.
  20. Texas 38 Okie St 27 Prop 20 - 277
  21. They ran a go and deep out with a RB flaring out to create a simple flood. The normal way to cover this would be Barron staying over the Go, Hill driving on the deep out, OLB splitting the difference of the out and flare - not really covering either but forcing air under the ball to the deep out while still being able to come up and make a tackle on the flare. What happened at the critical moment isn't on camera, but it looks like both Cook and Barron drove on the deep out, leaving the Go wide open. We don't play soft coverage. It's almost like a meme on this board for the other team to catch any pass and people to knee jerk something about soft coverage.
  22. Coverage bust between Barron and Cook, seemingly on Barron.
  23. It actually opened-1. The early line was +2.5
  24. I understand what you guys are saying. They don't 100% balance or even try to every single game. They aren't swinging the line so far that they lose both ways and if they think the public money is dumb, they'll take a stand because they think they have an advantage on the outcome itself. The statistics are what they are, though. Vegas loses more bets than they win. At the end of the day it's 100% juice even though they might win individual games.
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