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Posts posted by 52-80
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10 hours ago, Steel Shank said:
Also, the chicks working at a high end spa/massage place are going to be way hotter than at some skanky place, which explains blowing his mangunk all over the place without them touching him.
The worst thing about this is, think of all the masseuse who worked on him whom he didn't try to harass.
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6 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:
Russ ain’t making it
Better resume than Warren Moon, Stabler, Fouts, Tarkenton, etc
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Jim Kelly is in the HOF. 0 SBs. Fewer total TDs than Allen. Barely more total yards in many more games. Twice as many INTs. Fouts is also in.
3 more years for Josh Allen (10 years total) and he'll have an easy case. -
On 12/9/2024 at 5:39 AM, wild_turkey said:
When Juliette swam underwater to get the firefighter suit, where were those lights coming from? This silo, apart from the vault, appears dead, yet there happens to be a few lights still functioning in locations critical to her mission?
If you pay careful attention to many shows and movies in these types of scenes -- in caverns and tunnels and such, or medieval candle-list sets -- the visible lighting is just service to the audience so they're not staring at near pitch blackness. It's not meant to realistically portray the environment lighting. They do this to a extraordinary amount in this show.
On 1/9/2025 at 4:48 AM, Chet Steadman said:This show has become such a beating.
And as distracting as Common is in each of his scenes, the woman who plays Walker may be the worst actor I’ve ever witnessed.I thought her *role* in S1 was really good, and S2 the role sucked but the acting is still high quality. Unlike Common, she's actually won accolades for acting.
In certain tight shots Rebecca Ferguson looks all of her age (41) and more. In the S2 mechanic jumper suit with short hair she is a baddie.
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swiss peeler. super cheap and good. annoyingly, the inner part of the blade shows rust, but doesnt affect functionality (or give you botulism).
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DeepSeek is owned by a Chinese hedge fund. (It was originally built to pick stocks, then later generalized). Doubtless that their publication is sketchy, especially on the economics, and they stand to benefit from the newsdrop.
However some clarification is required on the reporting about short gains in NVDA and etc: theres no party or parties that can be confirmed to have been the beneficiary of the price crash.
The ~$6B reported gains is from a simplistic Δprice*shortinterest calculation. It has tons of caveats: the size of aggregate short interest in NVDA, AVGO, etc, has not meaningfully changed in 6 months; its only reported twice a month - and hasnt implied that existing shorts have closed/monetized; it is based on equity/shares and does not include derivatives (options, swaps, synthetics).
But anyway I bought the dip too.
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Meta just turned in another monster quarter.
Ad impressions up. Ad pricing growth up by double digits. Op margins nearly 50% and free cash flow smashed wall street expectations. Zuck is commanding that enterprise like the Spartan army.-
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1 hour ago, High Plains Drifter said:
Tell me something there slick: If the turn radius of a nascar track is 150 m, what's the maximum angle the turn can be banked at so that the driver doesn't get dizzy from experiencing too much centripetal acceleration during the turns?
Or, how much water does a 200 yard long by 25 yard fairway need during the summer in bumfuck alabama? What should the diameter of the pipes be to deliver that much water? Horsepower of the pump?
edit: fuck I just realized I'm replying to a year old post.
1. The drivers conform to the track, the track doesnt conform to the driver. Whether you take a curve at 200mph or 100mph is up to the limit of your vehicle and your skill, but its your choice.
Tracks are not designed with a G objective. See prima facie evidence of variety of tracks in F1, and even nascar (ovals vs street). And anyway, nascar drivers are subjected to half the G load of F1, so theyre not at threat of being anywhere near the human limit.
2. Jack Nicklaus isnt doing hydraulic engineering, I can guarantee you that.
Did you think Giorgetto Giugiaro builds engines too?
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On 1/15/2025 at 5:48 PM, 52-80 said:
Got more SPY 590/580P spread for 2 weeks out 🫥
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Cant make no babies in there
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43 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:5 minutes ago, immamac said:
https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1
With AI there's a few phases of actual computationally intense work.
1) Data prep/loading for training. - This is where you get all the stuff you want to show the AI together, cleaned up and formatted and tagged and whatever. You have to be able to tell an AI what to compare stuff to and when and if something is right or wrong after it spits out whatever it is doing in training. Think of this like decomposing a food dish to its ingredients and how much of each was in the recipe. They "tokenize" the data and assign arbitrary neural net locations to these tokens.
Simply put this is a brain from newborn until 10-12 years old where you are mostly in feeding and organizing what is fed to you mode.
2) training itself - this is where the big math stuff happens. It adds parameters and models weights to certain training results and just tries over and over and over and over to spit out something it knows is right by a reward system (that was more right than less right etc) they do this countless amounts of times until there starts to be associations between the neural nodes themselves. So the likelihood of the next token is probably one of the nuerons that has a shitload of connections to the prior token. The one with the most connections is the weighted winner by default, but you can mess with the parameters to get a range. Once you do this enough times you start to get to a place where it's mostly accurate regurgitating prompts that you have fed it. From your big pool of tokenized data. Think of this like having all the ingredients to make every dish you've ever had and also the recipe cards and you just randomly mix them and taste the food then look at the recipe and see how wrong you were (not what you did wrong, just that you weren't right) and then you try again until you get good enough to just recreate any dish you are asked and the recipe is close enough.
Simply put this is where you learn how to learn and start to use what you've learned in school. 12-19ish brain where you go to school, play sports learn to drive or do things etc.
2b) reinforcement learning or reasoning etc. This is where you do the things in step 1 but have stuff that wasn't in the training set thrown at you at the same time and you are graded significantly more harshly to the point where you need to not only recreate a dish but also do any modifications or substitutes asked in the prompt and it still be acceptable.
Simply put this is where you start to really work on specific problems and use your knowledge to do stuff. Think junior year of college or post journeyman trade moving into graduate or masters programs or into unsupervised work in the trades up to and including taking your PE exam for engineers. 19-25ish of the human brain.
After step 2 you can plop that out into what's called a model. This is a saved state of all the neural network and the weights and all that, but without having to store the training set, just the tokens and parameters. The larger the parameters the bigger the model (1B, 7b, 30b, 200b, 875b that you see next to models) you can get pretty awesome results with low parameter models that are well trained without having to go crazy on the next part.
3) inference - this is where you take the model and load it into working memory. So the bigger the model the bigger your working memory set needs to be. And all this working memory needs to be immediately accessible so it can start outputting the answer. This is where you can have a restaurant with anyone in the world asking you to cook anything they've ever eaten that's recorded in history and order it their way and you are expected to immediately cook it in as little time as possible. The faster your memory is and the better your reinforcement learning was the faster and more accurately you can serve this dish.
Simply put this is being the engineer or doctor or tradesperson or whatever you functionally expertise at as an adult. This is what you get paid to do with your brain not your body. Human brain 25+ish.
Except what we are trying to do with these LLM and agentic models is actually just do this whole thing once and have it be expert level at everything. So instead if making a not to win iron chef we are trying to make a not that can win iron chef, master chef, survivor, big brother, call the NFC championship game, engineer a building, fix traffic in Chicago, make a cure for cancer, build the best app in the app store, etc. It can do anything you throw at it and it can do it awesome.
Small language models or models trained specifically on a certain topic are far better and you can take an llm and in 2a specialize it and then it can just win iron chef every time.
Models right now have 3 styles of release.
1) Commercial/Proprietary - you pay us we give you the license and let you use it according to a specific cost structure. That's whether you pay per token or run it yourself and pay a license fee.
2) Commercial/Open Source - you can download the model and use it on your own computers or you can pay us to use it on our computers for a specific cost structure, unless you make a bunch of money off using it to actually do something and then we get a cut of that (meta llama model)
3) Completely Open Source - you can download it and do whatever you want with it as long as you say it's our model. Tons of people can offer this on any cost structure, but the devekoper usually offers a plan too (deepseek)
If you had 8 H100s or MI350X or whatever that had about 800GB of HBM for the GPUs in a cluster you can run deepseek-R1 with no germs and conditions. Download it from the link up top.
They have distilled models that make it smaller so you can run it on a laptop all the way through a pretty beefy workstation.
Basically they gave the brain away you just need to put it in an android, how much memory your android has is how fancy of a model you can install.
AI took this guy's WALL OF TEXT and summarized it for a 5-year old like this:
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Gathering the Cosmic Ingredients - Picture this: our AI is like a young superhero, just starting out. But before they can fight crime, they need their powers! So, we collect all the cosmic dust, kryptonite bits, and vibranium shards from across the universe - that's our data. We clean 'em up, label 'em, and make 'em ready for the big transformation. It's like when Thor needs his hammer or Iron Man needs his suit, but instead, we're prepping super-knowledge!
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The Super-Training Montage - Now, imagine our hero in a training montage, like Rocky or Spider-Man. They're in a lab, training with Professor X's brain machine. Every time they guess the right move or solve a puzzle, they get stronger, faster, smarter. This AI is doing the same, practicing with its data like a superhero practicing punches or flight. It's learning to predict the next villain move or solve the city's problems, but instead of muscles, it's growing brain power!
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Advanced Hero Skills - Here's where it gets epic! Like when Captain America gets the super serum, we throw in some new, crazy scenarios at our AI. It's not just fighting the same bad guy; now, it's dealing with alien invasions or time-travel paradoxes. It's like if Batman had to adapt his gadgets for space or if Wonder Woman had to fight in an underwater kingdom. This part makes our AI not just good but great at handling the unknown!
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The Superhero Debut - Finally, we've got our fully trained, cosmic-powered hero. This isn't just any hero; this is like assembling the Avengers or Justice League in one brain! We've packed all this knowledge into a super-computer brain. Now, when someone needs help - be it saving a cat from a tree or solving world hunger - our AI superhero is ready! It's like having Iron Man's armor, but instead of a suit, it's a super-smart AI ready to tackle any challenge with speed and precision.
And in the superhero world, you've got different versions of how you can use this hero:-
The Exclusive Hero - You pay to see this hero in action, like watching a blockbuster movie.
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The Open Hero - You can get the hero's blueprint and make your own version, but if you make a lot of money, you share some with the creator.
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The Public Hero - This hero's powers are free for all, like Superman, but you gotta credit the one who gave them their powers.
So, our AI hero is out there, ready to save the day, in any world, any challenge, with the mightiest brain power we've ever seen!-
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2 hours ago, horn4life said:
Almost nobody puts up $1,000,000 on a W-2. That's why pretending that billionaire income taxes are too high. Because they do not pay income on the vast majority of their income.
Most folks that could knock down a $1,000,000 W-2 are business owners, and way too smart to pay taxes like "the little people." The business owner would simply convert the ordinary income into dividend distributions. And turn that regular income into cap gain. Then instead of paying that pesky tax that funds medicare and 12.4% social security, they pay % on cap gains.It's a pretty good deal really. As your cap gain tax on the $500K in dividends is is 15%. Much petter than paying the "little people" employment expenses PLUS income tax.
So the answer to your question is not very many people have 7 figure W-2's. Folks that are making $1,000,000 a year as an employee, usually have a lot of comp coming to them in stock options. Which has the same effect as shifting income to a dividend payment rather than W-2. The exception on that million ins W2 income are likely on the East coast in finance, and the west coast in Tech.
But if you are working for somebody else in 95% of the country, and hoping to hit that $1,000,000 W2? You probably should have taken your $500K salary and started a business that would produce that same $500K.
this effect is overstated. if you're in llc or partnerships, business profits pass through to shareholders for self-employment tax -- which includes SS and Medicare. s-corp owner-employees are required to pay "reasonable compensation" before distributions can be made. and then, to get dividend at the discounted LTCG it has to be qualified dividend. special dividends and other distributions from a businesses like a real estate syndicate isnt going to count.
the social security contribution is capped to a modest $170k base, anyway. and medicare is a few measly percentage points off of income.
sure there's going to be some tax advantages to running a business. on the other hand, putting in capital and running a business is a risky venture in itself, and you'll need to employ and pay for employees (=tax contribution) if the business is going to generate something productive. if you can earn $1M annually from a mature, well capitalized company, its not exactly a slam dunk to go off on your own.
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5 minutes ago, hornbri said:
China just showed how shallow the AI “moat” is.
I think we are going to see AI valuations reset some now.
I dont think this market move is wholly ascribed to DeepSeek, and this market move has lots of confounding effect.
-january is seasonally slow for equity index (post santa rally)
-us AI-centric valuation were already stretched, ex china
-the deepseek claims seem a bit sketchy
i bet SPX ends up flat-to-up by week end.
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On 1/25/2025 at 12:27 PM, MonkeyDoughnut said:
I can think of plenty of industries where you trust a supplier but don't trust your suppliers suppliers supplier because you don't even know who they are. Might currently get/give direct supplier data access, but how do I trust a sub-supplier I don't even know?
People never exposed to pnl or financial plumbing think DSO/Credit/Collections issue dont exist in B2B. Amazing. Hell theres a $150B company out there whose job is to quantify supplier and credit risk.
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my mom uses an electric peppermill, thats widely available on amazon and alichina. super useful for one handed operation while cooking.
love my unicorn mills manual grinder but it is a bit overkill and it does make a lot of residue on the bottom end.
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On 1/22/2025 at 11:11 PM, Jerry Callo said:
I got an 11" de Buyer Mineral B carbon steel fry pan after Christmas. It hasn't warped, but I also don't let my wife near it.
Similarly, I have two knife blocks - Global for me and old Henckels for everyone else in the family.
I have 2 de buyer and its impossible to warp because its so goddamn thick and heavy…far more than any stainless ones that includes allclad and demeyere.
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Victorinox bread knife. Cuts everything…tomatoes, protein roasts (wtf needs a carving knife) etc.
Had it for years and never need sharpening. Not that you can sharpen serrated knives anyway.
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49 minutes ago, Mittens said:
Sophomore year, our ski club trip had our spring break trip to Portes du Soleil - a ski area that borders France and Switzerland. There is one lift that you get on in Switzerland and at the top, you are on the border - you go down one side into France, one side into Switzerland. The run on the Switzerland side is called "The Wall." The Wall is a very steep run of moguls and it's wide open, with plenty of room. It makes for the best wipeout watching I've ever seen. Many people choose to take the lift down, and many more should have.
A friend said they went down the wrong run not knowing the lift would immediately close and got “stuck” in the wrong country for the night. Had to get emergency hotel room.
Not sure if it was this resort.
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On 1/23/2025 at 8:25 PM, CHIEF said:
I have several friends in O&G that make close to 7 fig W-2s. One is the buddy that we hunt with on our new lease. He uses most of his W-2 money in an LLC that he created. He had a guy, on site that was getting a divorce, he had bought all of the equipment to start a land clearing business, but his wife asked for a divorce right after he had made the purchase. It was about $250k worth of equipment, he sold it to our buddy for $100k since he needed the money immediately for divorce funds. That kinda started my buddy down the road of having multiple small businesses that aren't shown to be real profitable, but you get the depreciation, and you only pay long term capital gains when you sell the business at a profit.
I will say, by far, the biggest benefit is writing off $15-20k/month of partying, vacation travel, ski boats, "company" vehicles, and the like off as company or entertainment expenses. He just gets to write shit off that he was going to do anyway.
CHIEF
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48 minutes ago, Captain Ron said:
I would call his acting anything BUT interesting.
His performance is easily the least convincing in the main cast.
This goes for the 10+ shows and movies I’ve seen him in.
Silo (Apple TV+) - Premiers May 5th
in Movies and TV
Posted
Yeah, but then you'd get people complaining that they can't see shit, like for most of House of Dragons.
Film lighting has always been for artistic intent first and and foremost, and then for realism second. Its better to show that the underground tunneling machine is huge and impressive than that its darker than Charlie Murphy. Theres no way you should be able to see Lukas' face and body in this cavern.