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52-80

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Posts posted by 52-80

  1. fucking hotdog buns that are sliced down the middle, they separate in 2 pieces as soon as you even look at them. 

    can someone not make a bun that just carves out the middle for the hotdog? turn the scraps into croutons or whatever.

  2. 9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    I don’t see how AI won’t be anything but huge for Meta. Obviously it’s a gigantic capital cost upfront but it will pay off. Start getting users conditioned to typing/talking with AI and Meta will began to learn even more about them and their current state of mind. Then you can pinpoint more relevant ads to them with a higher sales conversion. That will be valuable. Turns into a money printing flywheel.

    im in healthcare and advertising in Meta is considered fairly weak. It can help with awareness but we and Meta really have limited ability to know when the user needs healthcare today to throw advertising at them. I could see AI helping to recognize what’s going on in that household. $-maker.

    people who never thought a social networking website for college kids sharing drunk pics would grow to 1T, are skeptical they can grow an VR based business. we spend 8+ hours a day on a computing device, 5+ separately on a personal device, whos to say building a digital world is a wrong trajectory. 

    and on the AI end its already a space race of every other tech company, and meta owns massive trove of graphic data, text data, relationship data.  paying for all of this is an advertising business rated by actual advertisers big and small as far and away the most effective alongside google.

  3. Zuck is a pretty serious operator. FB looks superficially like a mess of spam, but things like Marketplace is a big hit. Their advertising revenue per user keeps growing and growing, even during what looks to lay people as the twilight period of their primary product.

    He had already announced 2 years ago about starting a "year of efficiency", and did a big cut then, so this current workforce reduction was coming from miles away. Their operating expenses had been on a steady decline. Since then, profitability went up 3x. They're putting tons of money now into infrastructure for AI and VR, so this will go into offsetting that spending.

  4. On 1/13/2025 at 3:10 PM, horn4life said:

    Well I definitely should have bailed more on my PLTR. BUT my UVIX has been offsetting the losses on my remaining shares.  I can't decide if I sell it all and eat a big cap gain.  Or hold and risk potentially watching the need for Cap gain taxes slowly erode?  I am sort of thinking thought I love PLTR long term, I have seen it ride high then collapse as well.  Look like the momentum is against it now.  And that's not a good place to be on a high multiple like PLTR.  I want to hold, but when I see UVIX surge, and PLTR wane...  

    I am starting to wonder where the good news is gonna come in the next few weeks?  We will have by this time next week a slew of Executive Orders that will be difficult for the market to digest with any certainty.  We are going to see confirmation of some of the least qualified political appointees this country has ever seen. (IMHO at least on paper)The average American won't even realize this, but the big hitters in the market will.  My only question in my head is whether there is enough financial exuberance from the Republican investor side to overcome the instability and unpredictability directly in front of us?  I think taking losses, is where the rubber will hit the road on this exuberance surrounding deregulation, and lower taxes.  IF it becomes clear that the Trump Bump, is actually the Trump Slump?  Yikes!

    So financially we have unpredictability in the market mainly among inflation concerns, in large part because of lofty evaluation risk.  We are going to see a confirmation of what I think most everyone would call disrupters at most positions.  Then we are supposedly going to get the "mother of all reconciliation bills!"  Which I fear the market will see as the largest deficit producing legislation this country has ever seen.  Which I in turn, would assume will add to inflation fears?  Or will the certainty of a single monster bill be viewed as a positive by the market?  A single large bill might be a debt buster, but also might give the market a better look at future predictability? 

    Anyhow a very unpredictable and skittish market right now.  When my hedge is moving toward becoming my big dog, I wonder if my hedge isn't actually where I should be moving more and more of my chips? 

    My big fuck up. last week was not buying WBA options (walgreens) after their epic beatdown, before they announced earnings.  As well as not trimming my PLTR position more and adding even more to UVIX.  I added a little more UVIX.  But I can't decide if I should move complete to risk on?  Seems like that's where things are drifting right now?

     

    UVIX isn't something you want to hold long term. It's an extreme short term hedge, and sub-optimal on any longer timescale because it suffers volatility drag which erodes value as markets stays flats, or , ironically , the volatility (its target) itself is volatile. (UVIX holds VIX futures and as those contracts wobble it'll hurt the rebalancing). 

    If you're skittish, rather than buy hedges, short term rates are attractive to park your cash. <1Yr bond yields above 4% with minimal duration risk, so money market account can give you something similar.

    I bought SPY put spreads before the new year, "expecting" a come down from santa rally, and those monetized really well. New cash is waiting for end of Q1 (typical lull in seasonality) and settling in of new administration before buying in the market.  Also, don't listen to me because I sold off PLTR in 30s.

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  5. I own Tobacco (Altria).  The business is going anywhere, they print profit, and it just gets pumped out as dividends. Have some energy and utilities and other old-world economy stuff that doesn't have attractive name appeal for price appreciation but they keep rolling in the earnings.

  6. 4 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

    I agree.  Let's discuss hypothetical's that could happen.  What if Sark decides Ol Beantown is the way to go at QB and tells Ewers and Manning to go fuck off and we are going with an unathletic, overweight middle-aged dude who can't throw a ball 20 yards.  How would that make everyone feel?

    Wait why cant you throw the ball 20 yards 

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  7. 8 hours ago, B00M said:


    Fuck this take. 

    He didn’t win the heisman like we expected but he played his best ball in the playoffs. He was 2 plays away from 2 championship game appearances. His record speaks for itself.

    Would you rather have Hudson Card? David Ash? Case McCoy? Casey Thompson? Swoopes? Heard? Who am I missing?

    Modern Texas football QB Rushmore is VY, Colt, QE, Sam. We can debate the rankings but come the fuck on.

    Hes played with 4 NFL backs: bijan, jb, roschon, keilan; 4 NFL receivers: worthy, whitt, AD, JT…not counting Gunnar who’ll go also.

    In year 1 all 9 of those guys were on the roster at the same time. 

    Since colts time, theres been a total of 5 offensive players drafted, and thats counting Geoff Swaim. 

    Unfortunately quinn is the teams ceiling, not its floor. 

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  8. 44 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

    You hear of insurance companies going insolvent but not much about reinsurance companies going the same way.  Seems like you should hear more about reinsurance going bankrupt if the system was working like it's supposed to.  So are reinsurers refusing to write for certain parts of portfolios or are the insurance companies just not buying enough reinsurance to cover all their assets? 

    Using reinsurance isnt a regulatory requirement. Also, wouldn’t the reinsurance be dampened as they only have a portion of the exposure of the originating underwriters.

    10 companies transfer a small slice their risk to you - 1 of them (in Florida) go bust, but you priced it right, and have the capital base to support it.

  9. 32 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

    The flat topography we have makes it easier to fight fires and also doesn't contribute to the 60+mph winds that spread the CA fires. Makes a world of difference.

    Yes, sure, and differences in flora and tons of other factors too. 

    I’m saying the differences in human action such as forest maintenance probably is a way bigger determinant in fire spark and spread than the 0.5c or so increase in mean temperature from the last decade+. 

    Like if it starts to sprinkle and you drive 150mph and wreck, its factually true that the road got wetter and is statistically more dangerous, but that wasn’t the main cause of the crash. 

     

  10. 11 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

    I'm not sure how the insurance companies will financially recover from this

     

    10 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

    They will honestly need a bailout bigger than 2008 Wall Street.

    We're about to get socialismed!

    When insurance companies fail, they get liquidated and go into receivership. 

    The companies owners/shareholders lose all their equity. 

    If they are found at-cause for negligence/misconduct, they are liable for further legal claims. 

    Normally, claimants get recovery through the Guaranty Associations - this is like the insurance version of FDIC. Those funds come from contributions paid out by the insurers themselves, not external “socialized” sources. 

    Many recent examples alone of UPC, FedNat, SoFi, all operating in Florida and going out of business after the hurricanes. None were “bailed out”. UPC actually tried to exit the market but Ian hit them and took them out. Due to heightened hurricane risk, property insurance is very high in Florida….which should be the case in Cali except they werent allowed to.  

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  11. 2 hours ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

    Privatized profits, socialized losses my friend, it’s the ‘Mercian way. Prepare your cornhole for a huge insurance industry bailout package

    State Farm also reduced/pulled its coverage from California. It declined coverage renewal (with advance notice) on 70k properties last year, citing heightened risk they were restricted from being compensated for.

    https://newsroom.statefarm.com/update-on-california/

    https://newsroom.statefarm.com/state-farm-general-insurance-company-california-new-business-update/

    State Farm had already lost $5B in their home insurance business in 2023, contributing to a $6B total loss.

    Importantly, State Farm is a mutual insurance company. The customers jointly "own" the business. There is no shadowy, passive, external figure receiving dividend checks from the retained earnings. Maybe the legislative policy handicapping their ability to charge for risk commensurately has something to do with it, you think?

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