I snipped off the section about how you feel about his personal character. Thats a subjective opinion people should share with their pets because theres no debate value, but we can talk about the business history because I think you’re trying to be honest with it.
1. The founders’ hobby and nominal profession and work experience doesnt trumps Musks’ for relevance to the business. They didnt have experience in vehicle or industrial manufacturing, they were tech founders like Musk was. Musk owned a sports cars (McLaren F1), and also expressed interest in commercializing AC Propulsions car. Thats how he got turned onto Tesla in the first place: ACP referred him to Eberhard.
2. Funding is not unique but uh its pretty essential to survival? Moreover this wasn’t a minority stake, like a VC punt on an investment. He bought majority ownership right out of the gate. Not 3 years in a coup or 7 years later when you suggest the company was “rolling”.
3.The fact that the company is 250 months old is not the point. The point is musk headed the ship for 97% of those months as chair/owner/ceo, and the 2 cofounders were completely removed 200 months ago.
4. A plan is a plan until its completed. Do you think theres some hurdle between the plan and achieving it? Through…say….the global financial crisis of 2007?
I get your main thesis that “#1 had the idea”. But the totality of the idea as you described is “make cheaper and cheaper cars” — is that their groundbreaking unique idea? did that map out to the actual 3 and y? and is the incantation of “lets make it cheap” more valuable than overseeing bringing the actual manufacturing online through to 1M of cars?
5. Argument wasnt ascribing the Roadster to Musk. Argument was the Roadster is pretty immaterial to what Tesla is today. Thats why its total sale of 2500 was brought up. It had nonvalue in showing that electrics could be cool. Theres lots of electric cars today from dead companies. (Fisker was cool).
The car that brought Tesla to prominence was the S. That was penned by a Musk hire (Franz) and engineered by a Musk hire (Rawlinson). The S kept the lights on until the Model 3 made money.
6. The blueprint doesnt guarantee execution. Even after Tesla made EV palatable and prove the business model, subsequent EVs companied died or are dying. Vinfast? Fisker? Faraday? Lucid? Ties back to #4.
7. The low-information guys in this thread also picked up on this great “government fund” thing as a gotcha. I think you know, that loan was given to other car companies (like Nissan and Ford) and in even larger sizes. Tesla paid back the loan in full, before term, whereas the other companies loans might still be outstanding. I love it when they mention the govt money as an indictment!
8. Nope, I didnt trickmath you while claiming that there was reluctance for public investment in the (9-7)=2 years after founding. I meant the 9 years after IPO, 16 years after founding. And in the IPO filing (S-1), they would have laid out details plans and visions and risks.
This post-dated all the sales of the Roadsters. It covered the Model S blowing up the internet with drag racing videos. It covered 9 years of public financials giving insights into financials and trends. And yet the investing public, by way of flat stock valuation, did not signal they believed in the future of the company.
That is the reason i claim it wasnt *obvious* that the company was rolling or thriving, which contrasts to your claiming that that was inevitable as far back as 2010. It doesnt jive at all.