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troph

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Everything posted by troph

  1. if ever there was an appropriate use of this gif… this situation is it.
  2. 4th and 1 from the goal line you have to go for it unless a FG ties or wins the game and even on a tie you might still go for it. That said, don't hold your fucking breath with this coach. The broader question of general analytics role in the decision of whether or not to go for it inside the 25 is absolutely up for debate.
  3. this is helpful. Couple of points, inside the 35 is too far out, that's a 52 yard field goal. Let's assume 40-42 yard FG is guaranteed, so that number needs to be inside the 25 when we are talking about leaving points on the table. There is no man's land around the opponents 35-40 where 4th and short has almost no risk - points are hard to get, punt likely a touch back, etc. Then I wonder how that plays out in games that matter - what about OU, UGA x2, tOSU, WA, play off games... and what is the percentage that we need to be at for this to be a no brainer? I don't think it's 50% - straight up that's 4.5 points instead of 3. Plus I bet the percentage is lower against these teams that really matter. I'd be willing to bet that inside the 25 against OU, UGA, tOSU, playoff games, etc. that he's below that 50% average making the above analysis situationally useless. and that doesn't even take into account the defensive slug fests, knowing your defense is only going to give up 2-2.5 scores per game, on the road where momentum matters, what happens when you time and time again go for it and now you need that FG to tie or win. there's just so much more to this than raw averages. every situation is different and analytics matter but they aren't the only factor and general analytics (as opposed to situationally relevant analytics) have nearly zero value to me.
  4. I feel your pain. I’ve bought 2 businesses that ended up being holy fucking awful. Both nearly bankrupted and killed me. Counting substantial private investments I’ve got a total sample size of 17 with 3 new ones getting started and 2 others in mid-flight for 5 total currently TBD. So I’ve had more failures than those 2 mentioned (and some nice successes) but yeah 2 were complete disasters. hang in there. Find your off ramp when you can.
  5. I told my trainer I wanted to lift lighter yesterday - you know like a maintenance day or a day off but not - she told me to lift like 80% but 3x15 instead of 95% 3x10. First time I “endurance lifted” …. I’m going to rake her ass, man that was brutal and I’m so sore today.
  6. And refrigerating starches after cooking and then reheating is actually a really good thing. Frankly it’s probably how we should all eat potatoes and rice at least. Just make sure the Tupperware is glass not plastic.
  7. I don’t have a huge problem with 4th and 1 from the 1. But the totality of the situation over three years, yeah fuck analytics, take the points.
  8. The disconnect is the computers aren’t considering the fact that Texas sucks ass at fourth and go for it and it doesn’t matter what other data is in the so called model. the disconnect is the failure of the computers to realize if Texas can get to 17, the game may be over. So going for it to maximize the chance for 30+ points may not be necessary. The computers fail to realize coming away with nothing …. AGAIN is demoralizing to a defense.
  9. It’s worked out so well for Texas hasn’t it? Look there are 3 outcomes (7 points, 3 points and 0 points) in 5 situations. (1) Score the TD easy, (2) clearly a FG opportunity and going for it makes no sense (think 4th and 12), and then the three we are talking about, it’s 4th down and 1 from inside the 10 yard line. get the 7, take the 3 or turnover on downs from a failed 4th and go for it. You all assume get the 7 will happen for Texas as the computers say it should, but it hasn’t so right now you are picking between 3 and 0 points and you’re calling folks boomers for wanting 3 over 0. As soon as sark can prove to be a better than average red zone play caller we can talk about 7, 3 or 0, but right now, the evidence is damning, we are choosing 0 thinking 7 is a real possibility when it just isn’t. He’s so fucking bad at it, and everyone saying they get it are blind as can be. Fix the problem then we can think about 7 or 0 but right now it’s pretty much a guaranteed 0. that’s not even getting into the issue of how you can let a defensive struggle get away from you when you leave 3 on the table or the momentum bust when you walk away with 0. It also fails to recognize how few points this defense needs from the offense to win. It needs more than zero, but once we cross 10 points a win is a legit possibility. That makes 3 points that much more valuable. yeah the 4th and 1 from the goal line you should go for it, I get it, but don’t lie to yourself you all knew it was even odds at best. Shit like that should be 90% odds in our favor. But it’s not. take the points isn’t a failure to see how the game has evolved, take the points is understanding 3 is better than 0 and 7 just isn’t a reliable possibility on 4th and 1 in the red zone right now.
  10. Agreed but the guy said arch had nothing wow about him in the first minute. That dude is click bait trash. It takes 1 second to see arch’s wow factor. Lots of question marks but that dude was wrong out of the gate so I don’t think his analysis is worth the wasted bandwidth to watch.
  11. Sportscenter about to do a break down of arch’s performance …
  12. He did show it, he threw to hard all the time. His one deep ball was a missile. His arm strength is off the charts. He played like dog shit. His accuracy and mechanics were awful. He has tape where he throws on a dime and has good mechanics. He will get better. tOSU mind fucked him all day long. Honestly we shouldn’t have been so surprised.
  13. I stopped watching first minute when he said his arm doesn’t have the wow factor. The guy has a cannon for an arm, it’s a wow arm. That guy is a dumb shit. Doesn’t take away from the fact that arch shit the bed and doesn’t have a touch pass in his repertoire. Even his excellent completions suuucked if graded.
  14. troph replied to Hate's topic in Lulz
    Whatever you do, never go full TURP.
  15. Watch arch’s highlights from last year and his short passing against tOSU and I’m of the mind that he doesn’t have a good short ball and so the QE style-short game may go the way of the dinosaur. I hope I’m wrong but the rifled balls to the feet and behind WRs doesn’t give me confidence.
  16. those of you saying go for it are assuming it's reasonable to think we will score. It's not reasonable to think that right now, don't you get it? until that is fixed, forth and go for it is basically a turnover.
  17. Until play calling is better. Texas analytics says you take the 3 no matter where you are. Until he fixes it going for it is always the issue.
  18. arch was so inconsistent - and that means he threw some nice balls too - that made it impossible to take him out. you think at some point he starts turning the corner in a one score game. I think Saturday sucked ass but I'm coming around to the fact that we just had way to high of an expectation for him. granted plenty of young inexperienced QBs did fine this weekend, but honestly I do think the intensity of the expectations on Arch and Caleb Downs and this mysterious man with a woman's name for his last name with no film on them made it extra difficult. So I am going to suspend my judgment re all things Arch until after Fla (which assumes complete annihilation the next three weeks). However, I continue to think Sark is a fucking knucklehead on Fourth and Go For It and Redzone Offense.
  19. that's splitting hairs. no reasonable person is calling Saturday an upset by a less talented team. I don't have a retort to that.
  20. he looks at the ipad with Milwee after every series. so no, but solving the problem is a different question. tOSU was ready and we had no real tape on them (new DC). play 8 quarters (endurance aside) and maybe it's different but no doubt we did not solve the coverage problem on the fly.
  21. not in a while.
  22. Stop acting like sanctimonious hoes. 365 days x 14,600 (that’s 40 years of being a coffee craving adult) you’re bound to run out of one component to the coffee process at least a few times. @Bevo&Pevo I see you my man. Btw since you’re out and about don’t forget the breakfast tacos.
  23. troph replied to CHIEF's topic in Football
    Texas plus 10? Or did I read that wrong? I’m not a gambler so I don’t know all the lingo.
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