troph

I think Dobbs changes everything on the suburban white women vote this go round for sure. So if not clear, I'm speaking historically.

my wife and I play tennis in a white lady tennis league in an area that qualifies as suburban. There are no men involved at all. So there is no dampener. Most of the time it's fun, but when decision-making and control is up for grabs, holy shit you have never seen more tearing down of one another than with a group of white suburban women. I stay the fuck out of it. HRC lost from a combination of things, but suburban white women not voting enough for her was a top 3-5 reason. Now I will also say that we have had conversations about abortion access, etc. and the conversations are short and not in depth but more conservative women than you might think are pretty pissed about Dobbs mostly for very selfish reasons - their daughters. So Dobbs is a game changer on this point.

most if not all of her 20 years of baggage was indirect criticism of her gender. she's too ambitious, she was trying to be a policy setter in HIS administration, she's not likable, her pants suits, stand by her man, she's not just a stand by her man, why didn't she leave Bill, etc. etc. etc.

That chart is entirely inconclusive regarding how white suburban women might have answered. Harris will win the women vote, Trump will win with men. The questions about white suburban women is a subset of that.

she has a vagina.

if they swing (vote), they aren't reliable to a Harris ticket. it's a foregone conclusion this is the only way. Harris/Shapiro, maybe Harris/Kelly.

troph household LOVES Kamala (I don't recall if she was on the super tuesday ballot in 2020 but if she was my wife voted for her, or would have), we are all in. I'm just talking politics. to your second point, that is an observant angle there - instead of thinking about the downsides to timing, if you come out swinging hard and land some punches (and have a nice october surprise) then you might catch the otherside a bit and there's not enough time to cycle through to the next iteration.

agree on second paragraph, past results will not be predictive of future results because of Dobbs. I think "not another black president" may suppress the vote. Keep in mind, not everyone is overtly racist. most racist shit is pretty well hidden, even to the person doing racist shit. so I'm talking about simply dampening enthusiasm and having more "stay at home voters" than those that will switch. It's like the HRC shit - total sexist bullshit in some cases with "I don't know, I just don't like her." that will happen with Harris on race and gender.

non sequitur. Trump was the backlash. Pulse nightclub was the backlash. El Paso was the backlash. Charlottesville was the backlash. All PTSD inducing. The fact that Obama was a wildly popular two term president unleashed a furry of backlash. HRC - yes I agree with all you said, and white women still didn't vote for her like you would think they should have. How women (who vote Dem from time to time) wouldn't vote for a qualified woman is PTSD inducing for some of us. If sexism wasn't a factor, even with the headwinds you mention she wins. Again, PTSD inducing. so again, your response wasn't a response.

you may be right about white suburban women. abortion changes everything. I do think though there are moderate voting men who are undecided but only because they just haven't had the internal conversation but if they go to the ballot box they are never (again) trumpers. they may stay home because they don't even realize they think the quiet parts to themselves. and you are correct about the HRC hate machine, but "not another black president" will light quickly. and then the question is will that increase turnout, maybe, maybe not. those may already be voting. there's already a good chance some true racists are sitting out because of JDV. who the fuck knows.

I think we vastly downplay the anti-trump vote causing undecideds to vote Biden. When push comes to shove the net negative for trump will carry the day for many. Will those same moderates vote for Harris, I honestly don't know. What we do know is black women carried HRC and suburban white women ate HRC alive. I would expect that to hold true for Harris as well. let's hope he has bad info.

well there's your open air, brokered convention for everyone to see. it's like the neighbors who fight with their windows open and everyone hears and they act like nothing happened. jesus fucking christ.

that's the bet, let's hope it works out. just because I'm super concerned and worried about asshat white women doesn't mean I'm not game. let's go.

I'm fine with moving on but this is why I thought (I'm moving on so past tense) Biden as a senile old guy was still the better candidate and why I was so fucking mad about how the last 2 weeks played out. it already is a mess.

no doubt she's a fantastic orator and debater, one of the best in a long while, but we knew that from her primary run in 2020. Maybe its PTSD from HRC and post-Obama backlash, but god I hope we don't run into a racist/sexist anti-Harris buzz saw (among suburban white women and others) in swing states. The number of women who might vote for a man (Dem) but will simply say a woman (per se) isn't qualified to be POTUS might shock us all.

I mean his username kinda checks out.

I saw that and agree re volunteers but I won't go back into why I think we are here. Instead I will repeat that as of now I agree he has to step down, and I haven't argued otherwise. I'm angered that we are at this juncture and for the causes (which some of you dispute), that's all. I mean it's probably a surly 0.01% issue for sure. It's being reported several of those Dems were money whipped to speak out against Biden publicly.

I disagree. I think there is a VERY heavy lift here, you didn't even mention defensive responses, but I DO agree most is negative campaigning and there would be a boost in enthusiasm, but I don't know if that will be offset by a new "anti-vote" among suburban white women, and others. to down play the amount of unknowns here does us all a disservice.

I did not say a handful of billionaires are the only ones asking him to step down, I'm saying a handful of billionaires (to be fair there are probably dozens of 9 figure donors in that group too) used money to influence Senators and Congressmen to be vocal in asking him to step down. I get you want him to step down. I get a lot of people want him to. I've never argued that, in fact I've conceded that left and right. But you know why he is stepping down if he in fact is? because Senators and Congressmen are telling him to and the Party is not rallying around him, and that article suggests the big money has dried up and has been shifted to pay for the drum beat. so tell me? if you disagree with that assertion, who is making him step down? and you can't say it's you, because we mean jack fucking squat here.

you can't say that in a vacuum with any real meaning. you have to say that compared to something. none of us know what Harris/??? will look like. now instead of one problem, one wildcard we have to consider what are the wildcards and what problems might Harris/??? present. the Dem strategists will earn their money and then some if Harris wins because they've got about a year's worth of work to do in about 30 days or less.

it's brokered no matter what. Biden has the votes. The brokering is happening right now. The only question is whether it's brokered before the convention starts or on the floor while the world watches. Knowing the Dems, it'll be done in public for everyone to see.

and in case that sounded self-focused (it was intended to be inclusive), I can't see how women who can still have children, and the men who love them, can stay in states like Texas. and kids? GTFO.

agreed don't piss them off. black women will save America (again).

I stand by my assertions today that the performance - in and of itself - was not devastating to the candidate. Make no mistake it was a terrible performance, but debates really don't matter. However, the response to the debate was what devastated Biden's chances. Maybe I can allow for an argument that it's semantics, but I don't think that's accurate. and I said those things you quoted when the debate was ongoing that is true. I make no apologies for the fact that my thinking is malleable, I consider it one of my greatest attributes and it keeps me from getting stuck in faulty or myopic thinking. It can result in people erroneously drawing the conclusion that I'm contradicting myself. Well, for those with rigid thinking, I guess I understand. But that's not correct either. My bottom line and then I'm taking a break.... The best candidate is not present and won't show up because Biden did not decline a second term. Done. we gotta deal with what we've got now. what's left - spin the debate performance - which was in the works immediately same night - and the news cycle moves on enough that Biden is still the best chance. that didn't happen. instead the drum beat grew louder. now we are talking a brokered convention (that alone is SHOCKING), an untested candidate, hoping the campaign infrastructure will just pass over to Harris/???, scrambling down the home stretch (including very little time to test messaging or recover from mistakes), and confirmation that the ticket really is for sale to a handful of billionaires (as reported in the NYT today). mother fucker this is not good and everyone seems like zoolander "just do it" and yeah, that's disconcerting to me. now what will I do? I will do what is required and rally around the nominee and shut my trap when Biden is out and praise the nominee for their strengths. I'll give money, I may travel to GOTV, I'll do my part. But until then, I think we royally fucked up our hand - a hand that very easily could have won and it remains to be seen if Harris can actually pull this off. The fact that dozens of posters on this board can't see that as a reasonable position is pretty disheartening because I think it cuts to the very core of the problem of how we play politics on our side (many times to our detriment).