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Posts posted by MagicSoccerSpray
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13 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:
Haven't seen this posted elsewhere, claims seem dubious and links to a referring DailyMail article. So the West just fabricated an off-ramp for Putin?
https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/11/11/breaking-vladimir-putin-offered-surrender-terms-by-the-west-after-humiliating-kherson-loss/DailyMail article: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html?
Milley is weak and should have resigned after Afghanistan.
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1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:
Like how Kino's fate (did he ultimately jump or not) seems to be left up in the air. And yea Luthen should have shot that dude, he is going to get caught, killed (Syril step on up bro) but sell out Luthen before he does.
I bet Luthen tries to kill Deedra and Syril saves her bringing him back into the story.
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Predator
13th Warrior
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Soooo good. I hope this isn't the last of Kino. Skarsgard's character is great and that scene so well written. Can't believe this is Disney.
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2 hours ago, Parliament said:
Kinda racist, Bro.
Starvation is racist?
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21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
I have seen very little evidence that they plan anything past three days.
Makes me wish Tom Clancy was around, would be interesting to hear his take on Russia being so shitty.
Not specifically about the Russians, but a good speech nonetheless. Sometimes you don't know what you had, till it's gone.
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19 minutes ago, Parliament said:
What does Russia have that the world needs?
16 minutes ago, Pods said:Exactly. Who needs Russia, if there are no civilized values in it?
We need Russia. We don't need Russians.
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4 hours ago, Bateshorn said:
blow the damn, flood all of the sourthern oblast.
I'd agree except that would affect the aqueduct to Crimea, which the Russians definitely care about, since that is an issue they specifically fed to Musk.
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6 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:
If you’re going Polish, get your hands on some bootleg Zubrowka (bison grass) wódka, sadly not legal here because of the alleged narcotic properties of the bison grass. Mix with apple juice for a szarlotka (apple pie) shot that will make you forget your worries as well as “responsibilities” and “physics” as you realize the shit DOES taste like apple pie that’s not at all 80 proof.
QuoteUnited States variant
Before 2010 Żubrówka was illegal in the United States because the grass it is made from contains coumarin which the FDA classifies as a "substances generally prohibited from direct addition or use as human food."[9][10] Since 2011 the manufacturers have made a version of Żubrówka from rye grain which aims to have a flavor similar to the original.[9][11]
5 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:Have you ever tried Slivovitz Serbian plum brandy?
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Goooooooood
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On 10/28/2022 at 6:49 AM, Gatorubet said:
Bloomberg is pay-walled.
Young Ruski guys flee or die in Ukraine- and no babies being made in any event so pensioners fucked?????
I’m guessing
On 10/28/2022 at 6:59 AM, InkaUtexas said:Was already bad, as has been discussed. Mobilization making it worse. Estimated that over 1M young men who should be making babies for the future armies and industries have fled.
Sorry about that, I read it, should have copied it over before they hid the content.
SpoilerPresident Vladimir Putin spent years racing against Russia’s demographic clock, only to order an invasion of Ukraine that’s consigning his country’s population to a historic decline.
Besides casualties in the thousands on the battlefield, the enlistment of 300,000 reservists to join the fight -- and an even bigger flight of men abroad -- is derailing Putin’s goals of starting to stabilize the population already this year.
Crippling disruptions from the war are converging with a population crisis rooted in the 1990s, a period of economic hardship after the Soviet breakup that sent fertility rates plunging. Independent demographer Alexei Raksha is calling it “a perfect storm.”
Russia Is Heading Toward Demographic Precipice
Number of births is plunging as mortality worsens
Source: Federal Statistics Service
Note: Estimates for 2023-2024 from Gaidar Institute's Igor Efremov
Plans by Putin’s government had set the goal of starting to reverse the decline in the population in 2022 before growth should resume in 2030. Yet weeks before the mobilization was announced in September, an internal report drafted for a closed-door meeting showed officials were already concluding those targets were unrealistic.
Citing the consequences of the coronavirus and migration outflows, the report instead proposed a revision that envisaged a decrease of 416,700 people in 2030.
Should military operations continue in the coming months, as expected, Russia may see less than 1.2 million births next year, the lowest in modern history, according to Igor Efremov, a researcher and specialist in demographics at the Gaidar Institute in Moscow. Total deaths in Russia average close to 2 million annually, though the number increased during the pandemic and approached 2.5 million last year.
‘Chief Blow’
“The chief blow to the birth rate will be indirect, because most families will have their planning horizon completely destroyed as a result,” Efremov said. “And the impact will be stronger the longer the mobilization lasts.”
A demographic reckoning has arrived for Russia, its economy starved of young employees and now at risk of stagnation or worse long after the war is over. Bloomberg Economics now estimates Russia’s potential growth rate at 0.5%, down two percentage points from before the war -- with demographics accounting for about a quarter of the downgrade.
Unfavorable demographics in the areas of Ukraine that Putin plans to annex is only likely to add to the challenges Russia faces from a growing population burden, Renaissance Capital economists said in a report this month.
While demographic traumas usually play out over decades, the fallout of the invasion is making the worst scenarios more likely -- and much sooner than expected.
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“Russia’s population has been declining and the war will reduce it further. Reasons? Emigration, lower fertility and war-related casualties. This will both erode potential growth and stretch fiscal policy, as the government tries to reverse labor-force decline with pro-natalist policies.”
--Alexander Isakov, Russia economist.
The mobilization is upending families at perhaps the most fraught moment ever for Russian demographics, with the number of women of childbearing age down by about a third in the past decade. It’s also coinciding with one of the highest death rates in the world as well as a depleted and graying labor market, alongside immigration outflows and questions about Russia’s ability to attract workers from abroad.
For Putin, who just turned 70, Russian demography has long been an existential issue, and just last year he declared that “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority.” He’s presided over efforts to buy time with costly policies that contributed to a steep gain in longevity and ranged from lump payments for new mothers to mortgage relief for families.
But as Russia approached the invasion of Ukraine in February, it was coming off its deadliest year since World War II -- made worse by the pandemic -- with the population in decline since 2018. It reached 145.1 million on Aug. 1, a fall of 475,500 since the start of the year and down from 148.3 million in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed.
The continuation of the military campaign and mobilization until the end of next spring would be “catastrophic,” according to Efremov, likely bringing births down to just 1 million in the 12 months to mid-2024. The fertility rate may reach 1.2 children per woman, he said, a level Russia saw only once in 1999-2000.
A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed to keep populations stable without migration.
Russian Fertility Rate Is Set to Plunge During War
Births per woman in Russia already rank among world’s lowest
Source: The World Bank
Note: Estimate for 2023 is from Gaidar Institute's Igor Efremov
“It is likely that in conditions of uncertainty, many couples will postpone having children for some time until the situation stabilizes,” said Elena Churilova, research fellow in the Higher School Economics’s International Laboratory for Population and Health. “In 2023, we are likely to see a further decline in the birth rate.”
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On 10/27/2022 at 7:04 AM, Captainant said:
I really like the writing in this show - Cassian ended up in an imperial work prison because he bailed on his crew and went to space Miami to lay low. Now he is going to get it beaten into him that there is no lying low with the empire, and that you can't make it through that sort of oppression on your own. You'll get quickly killed instead of slowly ground down if you don't support your brothers alongside you in resisting. I can't wait to see what happens with the prison sign language
It's a really nice contrast against the Saw Guererra monologue where nobody would pass his purity test and so he refused to get involved with the cause. Doubled in as well with the elite do-nothing class debating the idea of the PORD (the space patriot act) while cutting back to a shell shocked Cassian in a 6 year sentence for looking suspicious and resisting arrest.
Just phenomenal stuff.
It appears he lost all his money too. So happy there's finally a good star wars.
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14 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:
Jfc how have yall not wached Rambo 4?
Great scene and line
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24 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
A group in Myanmar is following Ukraine’s lead on drones and spiffy social media (on a side note, what in the everloving fuck there is an entire region known as the “Karen Region “????).
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1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:
Michael Tracy does a deep dive into DOD open source material, discovers existence of Embassy Kyiv Marine Security Guards and Defense Attaché Office.
What am I missing here? Doesn't every embassy have Marine guards?
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- Popular Post
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6 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:Supposedly when Putin arrived a conscript approached him "aggressively" without permission and was shot and killed. It was obviously hushed up and might explain the body language. I'll try to dig it up
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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:
Supposedly when Putin arrived a conscript approached him "aggressively" without permission and was shot and killed. It was obviously hushed up and might explain the body language. I'll try to dig it up
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Русский корабль - иди нахуй
in Daily Texan
Posted
No. He's been on RT multiple times and has been an apologist for Putin, and advocated appeasement of the Russians. He used to be good, but has gone crazy and illogical as he has aged, ala Mearsheimer.